LoboLeader1

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB 2026 The February 2026 outlooks are issued against the backdrop of a La Niña Advisory and the potential emergence of an enhanced Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal. La Niña conditions are present but are likely (75 percent chance) to transition to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral phase during the current January-February-March (JFM) season. The latest weekly Niño 3.4 index was at -0.8 degrees Celsius, which is still in La Niña territory. However, at depth, a pool of warmer than normal water has been steadily expanding eastward from the western Pacific, consistent with a potential transition to ENSO neutral conditions. Meanwhile, the magnitude of the real-time multivariate MJO index has been increasing in recent days in the Western Pacific. By the start of February, most of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble members predict this emerging MJO event to propagate to the Western Hemisphere/Africa or the Indian Ocean. Recent analysis of extratropical indices show that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been mostly negative in early January (although both have trended closer to zero in the past few days). The Pacific North America (PNA) index has transitioned from the negative to the positive phase during the first half of January. Combined natural analog composites derived from the recent evolution of these tropical (ENSO and MJO) and extratropical (AO, NAO, and PNA) drivers depict a 500-hPa flow pattern dominated by anomalous ridging over the northeastern Pacific, off the west coast of North America. Downstream troughing is favored over the west-central CONUS while above normal heights are more likely across the Southeast. Weakly below normal heights are favored across the western Bering Sea. This combined natural analog composite is remarkably similar to trends during the last 15 years, which also favor increased ridging across the northeastern Pacific and the Southeast, and below normal heights over the northern tier of the west-central CONUS. Natural analog composites, trends , and dynamical guidance from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), and the Forecast Consolidation Tool (CON) (which includes both dynamical model input and statistical guidance) form the basis of the February outlooks. The latest CPC Weeks 3-4 Outlooks and associated ensemble guidance from the ECMWF, Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), and the CFSv2 also contributed. Antecedent conditions such as extratropical SSTs, sea ice extent, and snow cover anomalies were also considered where appropriate. Statistical guidance is supportive of potential widespread anomalous cold air outbreaks across much of the Lower 48 states during February. However, dynamical model guidance is much warmer, particularly across the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. This dichotomy between the colder statistical and warmer dynamical model guidance results in increased uncertainty in the February temperature outlook. However, given the strong agreement between recent trends , ENSO, MJO, and extratropical analogs on the potential for anomalous cold across much of the northern and central CONUS, below normal temperatures are favored for much of these regions. The greatest confidence for below normal temperatures (40 to 50 percent chance) is indicated for the Northern High Plains, where statistical guidance shows the strongest signal. Conversely, statistical and dynamical model guidance are in good agreement in favoring above normal temperatures across the southeastern CONUS, with probabilities of warmer than normal conditions exceeding 50 percent across the Florida Peninsula. A second, but weaker, area of enhanced above normal temperature probabilities is posted for parts of the Southwest and Southern California due primarily to dynamical model guidance. Above normal SSTs off the west coast of the CONUS may also assist in increasing chances of above normal temperatures for coastal locations of Southern California. Enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures were kept weak for this region as statistical guidance is much less supportive of increased warmth relative to dynamical model guidance. Above normal temperatures are favored across western Alaska due to very good support from statistical guidance. However, dynamical model support is relatively weak, so probabilities of above normal temperatures are only modestly increased. Conversely, below normal temperatures are weakly favored for most of Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the southeastern Mainland, consistent with C3S model output with some support from natural analog composites (especially across Southeast Alaska). Although the current La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO neutral at some point during JFM 2026, statistical and dynamical model precipitation guidance still generally reflect a La Niña signature for the month of February. Above normal precipitation is favored from the Northern Rockies, Northern High Plains, and parts of the Pacific Northwest southeastward to northern portions of the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. The greatest likelihood of above normal precipitation (greater than 50 percent chance) is indicated across parts of the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, where both statistical and dynamical model guidance is in good agreement. A second region where above normal precipitation is favored is the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, adjacent areas of the interior Northeast, and the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, consistent with La Niña Composites as well as with dynamical model guidance, especially the C3S. Typical of La Niña, below normal precipitation is more likely across the southwestern and southeastern CONUS. The forecast favoring drier than normal weather across these two regions has good dynamical model support from the NMME. Above normal precipitation is favored for all of western Alaska. Dynamical model guidance is in good agreement in depicting increased chances of above normal precipitation across northwestern Alaska while statistical guidance generally supports an extension of this signal southward to southwestern Alaska. Conversely, a tilt of probabilities toward below normal precipitation is indicated for Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the southeastern Mainland due primarily to dynamical model support, especially from the C3S.

Spending the weekend here in the Berkshires, currently -5 here, 9 above back home in HPN.

Just read an article that ski resorts out west are hurting for snow. As of this month Colorado statewide snowpack is @ 63% of average, with some areas recording their lowest levels in history. Officials blame a persistent high pressure ridge has blocked storms, resulting in a warmer and drier winter.

39 currently here, yesterday at this time it was 11. Headed up to western MA tomorrow, going to do some skiing on Saturday. NWS posted this: EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. Temps around 5 here in the Berks.

Snow has ended here, just under 2 inches OTG. Currently 30F.

WWA posted here as well..... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches.

Auto body shops love this kind of weather, numerous spin outs on the Hutch this afternoon.

Currently 31 here, around an inch OTG now.

Currently 37F here with a light rain falling. Alot of winter left, I'm not going to jump ship yet.

NWS has temps progged above freezing here next week. Next weekend as of now looking wet, not white. Currently 21F.

Currently 14F here in the Berks this AM, 20 back in HPN.

Currently 29 here, had a wind gust earlier in excess of 40mph.

9 here this AM in the Berkshires, currently 20 back home in HPN.

Nearly 4.5" OTG here in HPN, currently 24F here.

NWS has temps progged in the mid 40's for here early next week.