Leesville Wx Hawk

I’m hoping that we all squeeze out more I this one since it is quite cold and trending a little better!

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Agreed- didn’t panic and have only changed their call map from 3-4”, to 1-2”, to 2-3”. A spread of 1-4” is not bad considering the hand we’ve been dealt the last 36 hours. Looks like we’re locked in to a 2-4” storm for many in central/eastern NC and I hope everyone on here enjoys every second of it even if 6”+ Maps from a few days ago don’t happen and it’s unlikely they will. This will be our best storm since January 2018 (I hate the December storm bc it snowed only at night and poured rain here all day while places 20 miles away got dumped on all day). This frankly given the cold air and chance for rapid accumulation will be a fantastic storm regardless our final tally

We live 4 miles NE of RDU and really didn’t transition to rain in that December event plus got 2 more the next day for a total  of 10 plus.  My  oldest son was at NCSU at the time and only got like 3 .

RGEM looks good.  A trend?

Big Weather did not blink but Mike is leaning with the most recent trends.  Hopefully the GFS comes in line with the European.   If all we are looking at is tomorrow night, I’m hoping for a surprise 1-1.5 “ just to have something to work with.

Eyewall bringing the positive vibes!  I like it!

5 miles north of RDU-should be safe.

Huge!

7 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Also can I just say screw you to Pivotal for locking a bunch of stuff that was previously free behind a paywall?

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

Just let DT do it for you because he’s fired up right now.

I don’t believe this ZR solution.

Mike Maze just said that they he Euro lost it.  That gave him the opening to discount it.  I bet he’s happy after seeing the ensembles.

for Canadian.

Check out the Canadian y’all!

Yep.

GFS had the storm but a little later time frame due to the difference in timing.  I’m a bit more worried about it following this scenario as opposed to getting right after it  like the GEM and Euro have been indicating.

CMC for the win!  Icon not far off.  0z European hinting.

The question is: What constitutes a win?  Is it a general 2-4 inch event for a majority?  

34 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Warm noses are always served piping hot. 

Nice!

EPS ensembles had a blocky -NAO look last time I checked.  This period seems more synoptically favorable for RDU et al.

500 mb Euro looks good!

4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Probably depends on which RDU red tagger you ask. I think that the CAD maintains its Integrity a little more and it's predominately sleet/zr/711 slushie after a quick 1-2 inch burst for now. I don't think we'll get above freezing. Eyewall just said rain/zr split which is probably just as likely as my thinking.

Think of it like this:

Too rich.  I’m 4 miles north of RDU so I would take 2.5 “of snow,.3 of sleet then a little ZR to a little bit of rain and call it a day.  I think we miss out on backside accumulating snow but it would have been cool to pick up a quick 0.5-1” at the end.
 

14 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I thought the most consequential thing that the NAM with the "new data" showed was a wholesale shift of our shortwave 50 miles to the east as early as 36 hours into the run. I like using the NAM as an appetizer model for a lot of reasons and one is that I think it can tip the hand of the rest of the models on what the trend de jour of the suite is going to be. I think we're cooking with propane if more models show this shift east with our energy.

I will say, one thing i don't use the regular NAM for is precipitation depiction. I've always thought it has looked a bit 'off' with its precipitation depiction, dry areas where I'd expect more precip, etc. I think it's fun to look at but I don't hang my hat on it- I lean on the 3km a lot more for that in my internal calculus.

Every little shift to the east is a good thing. Thanks for the good insight per usual.

20 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Whatever snow QPF we can squeeze out, for once, we’re going to be efficient with it

You might be in decent shape BullCity if the 18z gfs pans or get s even better.

I’m not blaming ya Brick!  We had it seemingly wrapped up.  Hope we can salvage something.

I miss Greg “freaking “ Fishel right about now.  He was great during Wibter storms in the Triangle.

Trends are friends.