stormdragonwx

After going on nearly 6 lackluster winters in a row, I am learning not to get my hopes up for an eventful winter around here. lol

Looks like the NAM pretty much nailed it. Just NW of OKC they have just shy of 2" of ice accumulation! Unbelievable... https://www.facebook.com/colt.forney/posts/10164673026050227

I joked a few days ago about a crippling Ice Storm because ya know... 2020 but now the 0z NAM has come into range with 2+ inches of ice. This along with leaves still being on most trees would be pretty devastating. I do think its being bullish jumping on board with that kind of outcome even though the GFS has been showing some kind of Ice Storm for several days now. Something will happen but 2+ inches of ice seems farfetched.

I know its outside of the range for this discussion thread but does anyone have thoughts on the TX setup for tomorrow? Trying to make the most of this lackluster season and since I am off work till Friday I'm considering taking a shot at it even if it is a 12 hour drive one way. Though the pattern looks to be about the same as its been this year with messy HP storm modes and SSE storm motions from my initial look at the models. Either way I'm surprised there hasn't been more talk on this setup.

Been debating on making the 8 hour drive out to the panhandle area myself tomorrow even though its on the marginal end of the slight risk spectrum. Gotta take what we can get though. This May has been pretty disappointing overall as others have mentioned.

Neat little meso wake low thing happened today in and around NW Arkansas. Had 50mph winds at one point knocking down trees throughout the area in spots.

Currently positioning near Garnett, KS, looks to be a decent area. Today doesn't look outstanding but HRRR does consistently show an isolated storm tracking thru there.

Yeah I was really looking forward to a potential chase in my favorite area tomorrow but that hope is fading as im not sure I wanna drive 8 hours just to run from a squall line. Latest data all showing pretty quick upscale growth. Maybe late May or June will throw us a bone.

Well.. that was disappointing. Yeah I chased that same NE OK cell down to Pineville, MO before I called it quits. I really thought it was gonna produce at one point as it neared Seneca on the state line. Typical 2020 junk storms as usual around here. I think if the storms took more of a E/NE track it could have helped them produce. Never been a fan of S/SE storm motions.

I think I will be sticking to my Miami to Joplin target area where there is clearing.

Yes it could be interesting tomorrow. My Target Triangle of interest is between Purcell, Madill, and McAlester, OK. Could be some nasty storms in this area as we go into the evening.

Unless something springs up towards the beginning of March, I think this season is done.

Yup, believe it when I see it.

Yeah looking pretty disappointing so far. 33 and rain as usual here in the Fayetteville area as well.

Yup as I suspected probably gonna be 33 and rain again for the Fayetteville area. We will see. Stranger things have happened.

Something that has been getting overlooked is concern for icing. SE OK, NW AR, and Southern MO is notorious for getting Ice storms with systems like this due to the terrain as the cold air needs more time to filter into the area thru all the levels. With it being as warm as it has been over the past few days I have my doubts if the cold air will fully arrive in time for any snow SE of I-44. Right now its mostly been the Canadian models showing it but the NAM and GFS have hinted a bit more on it too. Though if I am realistic it will probably be 33 degrees and rain as it has been all season in my area. I will take that over ice.

1411 Tornadoes First High Risk: May 5th