stormdragonwx

Finally changed over after midnight here. So now we got a sandwich of accumulation in my yard. About 3 inches of snow 1 inch of sleet and 2 inches of additional snow on top. Might get another inch and a half with this final band moving thru. EDIT: Was correct, final measurements come to average at around 7 inches.

Still a sleet storm here in Fayetteville. I highly doubt we see 10 in

Yeah I am totally over this storm. Looks like it's gonna stay sleet with an incoming dry slot.

lol now its sleeting here at my house. What a joke.

TSA is being way too optimistic trying to salvage their forecast. I think they are just looking at the GFS which is way overdone.

If it tells you anything I am already looking to next weekends system... if it holds. lol We are barely past 4" since my morning report. Looking at how the short range data is trending drier, my final forecast is 7" total for Fayetteville. If we are lucky. What a joke compared to 24 hours ago.

The unreliability of the models is incredible for being the day of. They were all incredibly consistent all week up til a few hours ago saying this system is gonna dump on us with a forceful 1+2 punch. HRRR in particular has cut the totals in half in just 6 hours time. Good ol Lucy with the football as I feared.

This is reminding me of that system a couple years ago. Looks like the air is struggling to saturate now. Snow is very fine and light and is blowing around so it's hard to measure. Totals haven't increased much. If the 2nd wave also underperforms later tonight this might be a bust. I will be very surprised if we see 10+ inches in my area like what was being forcasted. EDIT: Based on current totals and the time frame on the models, it looks like the 10:1 ratio totals may be closer to reality.

Already got 3" here in Fayetteville. Snow is a very fine powder coming down.

TSA seems to be jumping on what the GFS is saying too. They upped the totals in the WSW text to 8-14" with local 18" totals. Blowing and drifting snow also expected. Wonder if they will issue Blizzard Warnings? My area has never had one. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=TSA&wwa=winter storm warning

Considering the overall consensus of all the other high res models slamming the areas along 412 and 44, its safe to say HRRR is the outlier.

Whats insane is every convective short range hi-res model has 12-20+ on the snow totals. Not sure I have ever seen that before. Not sure how Snow Depth is calculated but 06z RRFS-A wants to murder the 412 corridor with nearly 3 feet of snow this morning.

If Fort Smith got 26" as the 12z GFS Kuchera indicated, I wonder if that would be a Jan record for them if not all time.

Now that we are in the final 24 hours, I have to step back and be objective here, I think the models don't handle the warm air layer well. I have a weird feeling the WAA might be stronger than indicated causing a lot of the snow to become sleet as I remember this happening with one of our big winter storms just last year after the models went nuts with 12+ beforehand. Likely this will be an issue during the first wave until the cold air layer deepens. Especially areas further south and east of US60 and I-35. Might be best to take these Kuchera totals and half them. With that being said the QPF is still holding steady if not increasing. Many may still see close to a foot of snow. Just my two cents.

Yeah it is kinda wild how some of us are disappointed in reductions of possibly getting 6-10 or 4-8 inches considering how lackluster this winter has been up to this point. Lol

Tulsa becoming more generous on the DSP page.

Man that cutoff is getting dangerously close to me here. Though it seems the NAM is the outlier here. But 8 times out of 10 I have noticed the WAA or dry slot kills it on the day of it seems. I think the year before last was a great example of it.

Quite interesting how there are three distinct heavy bands setting up across the entire state of Oklahoma like that.

NAM seems to have a lot more WAA and kicks the system out sooner. GFS and Canadian do not. Have to see what Euro does. 06z ICON is still pretty aggressive on totals with a 1.2" QPF over my area. GFS is the most generous on QPF with 2.5" over the AR River Valley.

Yes I know I have come off pretty cynical on this board during this event for this very reason. Especially after that one big storm that busted due to excessive dry air that had trolled us with a foot till the day of a few years back. Part of me is still waiting for Lucy to pull the football. Also locally for us NWA folks they are forecasting a HIGH of 16 on Sat/Sun. That's at least 20:1 snow ratios aka Mountain Powder Snow.

00z ICON is now clobbering the 412/US 60 corridor. Looks to not end till late Sunday night. 00z NAM is pretty insane too but this is only at 84 hours out and still snowing. 00z Canadian is probably more realistic but still impressive. Still snowing on this run too.

IDK about being a step down but a widespread 8-10" maintaining all likelihood is still impressive.

Once that Hurricane Hunter data gets fully plugged in we should know the real story by the time the 06z runs go live.

Wont lie I'm still worried about that jog north and the warm air aloft being too strong being two days out still. Really don't want an Ice storm after getting the possibility of a foot of snow. snow>ice anytime Edit: Just saw TSA just went full tilt with widespread 8-12" now.

But I will say the snow depth parameter is pretty absurd across the models Sunday eve as the system moves out.