Ahoff

In classic Pittsburgh fashion the advisories are spreading from New Mexico up the Ohio River to Cincinnati, skips us and then starts again to the east.  Just classic, lol.

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

That was theb6z and that was for the PD time frame not next Tuesday. Next Tuesday looks like our max would be a moderate event. Just seems like the storm doesn't get really going until it's east of us. 

The point is there’s potential, whether it’s Tuesday or President’s Day the next two weeks should be more interesting.

17 minutes ago, TimB said:

6z run, I think.

Yeah, so the potential is there.  Do I expect that much, no.  But we have chances.

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Which run? I was unimpressed by the 12Z which had Pittsburgh at 6.7" and more like 5-6" at KPIT through the entire run. North Carolina gets dumped on though - 22" at Greensboro and a foot at Raleigh-Durham.

Edit: Doesn't show the North Carolina event until the 19th-20th, and Pittsburgh is in the upper 30s for highs those days. 

I don’t know, I saw a screenshot that showed like 18” here.

GFS looked pretty friendly to the area over the next few weeks.

9 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Still a long long way out

 

Interestingly, the weather app on the phone says 7.3” for Tuesday, lol.

2 hours ago, TimB said:

This is the second time on record and first since 1878 that the first 7 days of February have featured exactly zero measurable precip. In 1878, there was measurable precip on the 8th. At this juncture, no model is showing precip before midnight tomorrow night, so we may make history.

February is a historically drier month to begin with, but after a really wet January, we could use some dry time, then hopefully buckle in for a wild back half of the month.

Started early to jinx the bad winter.

1 hour ago, Burghblizz said:

March ‘22 had an 8”  ish storm around around the 12th, and then a very active LES pattern even into the latter part of the month. So it was a good month, although lots of melting in between events. But hey, it was March.

Other thing I remember is someone (I think Ahoff) started a spring thread in February since it was sucking. Must have worked as a reverse jinx as we finished strong. Threaded the needle nicely on the bigger storm as this long area of precip trained for awhile

I’ll start a Spring thread tomorrow.

Yeah, this feels like a year where our Spring will be screwed up.  I wouldn't be surprised if our one white holiday is Easter this season.

8 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

For that exact reason.  
It wasn’t an ideal track, but normally a late January storm like this provides something frozen. 
The gfs had this locked down 5 days ago. 

Oh, okay.  Thought you meant you hoped or expected snow.

54 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

I know 20-21 is unrealistic to expect most years, but too often we’re like a mangy old dog rooting around a dumpster for scraps. SMH. 

Last night and today were kinda soul crushing.

Why were they soul crushing?  We really weren’t expected to get anything but rain.

34 minutes ago, TimB said:

Remarkably, the majority of that January 1978 precip fell as snow. 6.25” of precip and 40.2” of snow that month, for the snowiest January and 3rd snowiest month on record.

Also looks like we’ve set yet another daily precip record, our 3rd since Christmas. With 150+ years of records, we’d be expected to get less than 3 of those per year, and now we’ve had 3 in about a month.

Well, we were bound to pay for the very dry year last year.

33 minutes ago, TimB said:

Nevermind. Duh. November 1950. 

If only we could get a repeat.

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Wouldn't the very fact that the low moves inland into New Jersey indicate that this storm wouldn't be all snow for the coast?  That account seems to be a bit dramatic, but that doesn't look like an all snow friendly system for the coast.  I'd take it for us, but that even looks like a nearly impossible track.

^And one day that will change.  Can’t stay in the wrong phases forever.

8 minutes ago, donyewest said:

Pfft, not this guy.  I keep receipts and hold grudges LOL  Seriously though...I pay attention because a deficit is a deficit does a trendline make.  It's like gambling: You lose, come back to the table to lose again, and then try to play catchup but odds are not in your favor.  Snow is the only respite against the gloom of winter rain and swamp-humid days that run for most of the calendar year.  Especially now that I have a kid, I want them to enjoy winter as much as me, and appreciate cold weather...not be one of those people loving a +25F run in the middle of winter because they are cooold and don't own sweaters?

I bet they’ll get those type of winters.  We’re in a slump is all.  I mean look at the UK and the winter they’re having.  It’s been incredibly cold and stormy.  that’ll be us again at some point.

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

We could get 50 next year and 40 the next and nobody would remember these bad winters. I barely remember last year already.

Exactly.  You have a bad year and move on.  Look the next.  Will we end up below average this year, probably, but that doesn't mean we don't hit the jackpot next year.

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Lol I should have specified, when this snow is gone. I’m not irrational enough to think snow will completely be a thing of the past in 5 years.

Oh, thank god, lol.  Because that is a crazy take.

18 minutes ago, TimB said:

@Burghblizz5 years from now when the snow is long gone and the death band is long forgotten, especially by those who weren’t under it, that 2.9 in the record book is all we’ll have to remember this event by. Sorry, but that’s just a fact.

lol, stop reading the New York Times.  Snow is not going away.  We’re in a bum pattern, it happens.  Last decade was a pretty decent decade, this one may not be.

11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Agreed

 Let's focus on maybe next weekend getting some frozen precipitation.

Do we think this will be a short thaw, or a little more prolonged?

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Airport had at least 0.03” of precipitation after that time. Could be more, as ASOS can struggle with the snow. But even that should be good for an additional half inch.

Yeah, they may have made it to 3".

Snowing pretty nice again.

Just now, Rd9108 said:

How far back is it on the discord channel?

I don't have or use discord.  You have to believe me, lol!

Just now, TimB said:

Maybe that’s the guy who impersonated you. It’s really just my sock.

What does the sock thing mean?  I've seen it mentioned a couple times.