Ahoff

46 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Lol he says he likes us for 6+ BUT he also said if the energy is weaker which has been that the storm would be further north which it is not. So I don't know im misunderstanding him or not. 

Maybe more north from this recent bad, southern runs, lol.  That might get us 6+.

3 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Anyone happen to see anything from Bernie Rayno on this system?

I heard he was saying we were in the possible zone for over 6”, however that was before the most recent runs.

Maybe, this is as bad as the models look for us and we have positive corrections from here.  That’s all we can do is hope.

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

For this Jan 6th chance, the Euro was fairly consistent recently until today when it had some back tracking.  The GFS has been consistently driving a presence up into the Ohio Valley in different iterations over the past 36 hours except the 12Z Jan 1 run.  This 18Z run is quite different than even the 12Z run yesterday.    I think as of now, the front piece of energy (with the back being the cutter next week) is losing it ummph and changing the eventual results on the fly.   The high and 50/50 to our North is pushing it more on this 18Z run.   24 hours ago, the GFS had a 998 low in the Ohio Valley transferring to a sub 990 low on the coast.  On the 18Z GFS today it never gets below 999 and actually came damn close to leaving us all high and dry.   And, of course, it is moving MUCH faster.  12-18 hours faster. 

I am not able to guess what the result will be beyond saying all options seem on the board still.  That is a cop out answer, sorry.  

That’s okay.  I appreciate the response.  Just looking for a glimmer of hope out of that awful run, lol.  Still, it was just one run.  I’m looking for just a few inches, hopefully that’s still on the table.

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thats the ensembles 

Yeah, GFS ensemble.  I meant hopefully future runs are better, not more from the 18z.

Just now, Rd9108 said:

So it trended terribly the past 12 hours so let's see if we can get some positive trends in the next runs. I need to stay away or my negativity is gonna rival KPitt .

Or worse now, TimB.

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I cannot keep up with the bouncing ball (models).    The GFS keeps rotating between a stronger low that finds a weakness and cuts to KY or OH to its current iteration of a low getting to the SE Coast then jumping into the DelMarVa with a solid but quick moving wall of moisture.  

What's your take on the GFS with its handling here?  Are the other models more consistent, relatively speaking?  I know consistency isn't accuracy, but jumping around can't be too positive either.

How has the GFS been at this range?

2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Losing the primary is killing us verbatim 12z vs 18z

 

 

Yeah, we'll have to see if that keeps appearing.  GFS can be weird, hopefully this is one of those times.

Yeah, that's a bad run, but it's only one that's that bad.  Lets hope it's an outlier and that the start of a trend.

Wow, that 18z GFS run is a hard blow.  Luckily, its only one run, so hopefully it was a one off, bad run and not the start of a trend.

Accuweather’s first point and click totals are about 3-7”.  I don’t think we can be upset at that.

Just now, north pgh said:

Still not bad.  Down across the board for everyone.

Looking even better than before.  NWS is fairly confident at this point.

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Out in fantasy land, the 6z GFS has another Winter storm chance on the 15th.

Storms & rumors of storms..buckle up!

This is a storm I’m wondering about.  Seems there’s some expectation that hotter air funnels in around the 16th.  Could this storm be the true kicker to get it in and stick that pattern here for a while?  Too early to tell, but interesting.

Looking good still, and a little surprising for a time period that is showing a potential cutter.

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

After the 2nd cutter we get our chance the way the trough is aligning on the Gfs. Of course, could be wrong.

Isn’t too early to worry about the one’s after the 9-10th at this point?

Newest GFS looked pretty good.

Positive

13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

EPS alittle east but still some good hits. Honestly if out east needs 8-12 for us to see 4-6 then so be it. 

Usually how it is anyway.  They get bigger overall storms, just less instances of snow.

7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Everybody in PA eats

 

 

Wonder how this will fail?  I'm sure we'll hear soon.

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

We should be good if the low transfers from Eastern TN to the Outer Banks of NC & then moves north as the Euro shows.

That looks great.

Just now, Rd9108 said:

Well you knew it was gonna happen. The models trended. Shouldn't be a surprise and there's obviously still time left for this to go one way or another. 

This isn’t uncommon or unexpected.  I can’t imagine there was ever a storm where the models stayed exactly the same for over a week.

Plenty of time for better trends.  No reason not to still be hopeful, unless your TimB.  He stays negative.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/major-winter-storm-brewing-with-snow-ice-and-rain-to-blast-northeast/1608380

Accuweather talking about it.

12 minutes ago, paweather said:

I know send him back to the troll house in Pittsburgh. 

He can't be contained, lol.  Security must be lacking lately.

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Your FOS!!! Where were all your positive posts yesterday! POS!

He’s become a troll.  No other way to put it.

10 minutes ago, TimB said:

Just thought 2024 would be different.

Maybe choose to make your own 2024 different.  And also, the fact that there are quite a few opportunities and still a good signal on this one suggests it is.  Take a pill and calm down, Jesus.