UnitedWx

How come when I look at the Canadian this A.M. all I can think is

Yeah 6Z GFS made a step back towards yesterdays runs. It'll now flip flop a thousand times between now and next week... AND Oh Canada lol

Everybody knows climate change in real... been happening for millions of years

Only one model really ever had it, THAT'S the problem. Sure the Euro had it for like one run... but there wasn't a ton of support especially once we got into the period when we should be tracking anyways (inside 4-5 days)

88-89... OoofDa! Please NO so much winter PTSD from the 80s here still

And GFS had more at 12Z than 6Z

NAM certainly looks worse than yesterday... surprised, no

I kid and push back myself, but it's likely some of both are true mixed in with dumb luck and a calculation that we don't understand yet. We had so many above average mixed with near average years the last couple decades that it's easy to try and find fault with why it isn't snowing here right now. IMO whatever the CC part of the equation ends up being, it's just as likely to create more snowy winters in the future.

That is the absolute best analysis I've seen here in a while, sounds like you're ready to work for pick your "favorite" media outlet Seriously i can't stop LMFAO

We keep looking to the distant model future for a storm. I have a gut feeling that if/when we have a real threat it's something that pops up more short range

I really wish I could have convinced my husband to move there. It's such an awesome weenie spot, especially in lean years. There up through Becket and north is great

Don't forget early 90s Polaris snowmobiles with the PINK, purple and retiree blue graphix... and matching jacket

Thanks. You can really see how the last few years have affected a few of those numbers. I really am surprised that 75-100 area isn't further south in the Berks! The area Just west of me (Westfield) has done really well a couple of the last few that have sucked everywhere else. There's been a dozen times I've driven up to Blandford for example and they'll have 8-12 inches plus, and we have near nothing. My friend at the top of the hill has been keeping track for decades, I'll have to ask him what he's seen

Over the past couple years I've found the recumbent bike in front of the TV and under the fan is a great way to distract from the effort. Love the workout, but HATE being overheated

100 percent. Better data in, better computation. That really isn't any different in data between models, so my expectations for AI models to be more stellar is quite low. I'm waiting for the 5 boob low super storms to show up on one of the AIs

So cue the 2-4 forecast when someone gets in from his run...

LOL but still, that's a couple inches at most if you're in the "sweet" spot, right? Oooi it's too early for these eyes

I try my best not to be one of those, but everybody has to have their melting point

Oh absolutely! Just don't let Coastal WX see the sentence I highlighted. He was ready to ring my neck while I was arguing this last night

And the funny thing is I just looked at the latest Euro and to me it looks the best it has for extreme Southern New England in the past several days. To my highly untrained eyes it actually looks better than the GFS from this morning. NOT saying it shows much however

I think the big head fake for some was the euro actually showing it for a run or two and then yanking it back. And I'll tell you I've been hating on the Euro the last few years compared to previous but it seems to be performing much better so far this winter then the recent past. I guess I'll actually have to look at it lol, but I'm not staying up past midnight to do so!

Yes that makes more sense to me. You're right many times you have the players on the field, they're just a little bit out of position and it ruins everything

Interesting perspective, but it definitely was not real at some point. That's the problem with forecasting the future you just don't know. If this storm doesn't happen as a blockbuster, then it was never going to happen that way. It's not like the models decided to change something it's the fact that they didn't know something or thought they knew something and were in error., it just wasn't meant to happen that way. It's like making assumptions in life a lot of times you get burned. Same thing with the weather computers. Lots of what they compute up to a point is based on assumptions

Yes. Aside from the wind chill, it isn't abnormally cold at all. Just kinda normal minus much snow... yet

Give it a few hours. Calculations will be put through the food processor and it will spit out a totally different solution