Imneversatisfied

APX went from forecasting 6" at noon now less than an inch in Alpena. Sounds like they plan on the warm air aloft will create mixing. Only model I see having rain reach here is FV3 all others are snow. Hmmm Sure hope they are wrong... Let the disappointment begin.

Im contemplating firing mine up altho it last ran two months ago not years lol so I'm not too worried. Plus I work on small engines and love snow so my blowers (yes I have 2) are àll tuned up and ready. Just don't wanna jinx anything now! Btw if you couldn't get it started,try taking the spark plug out,clean the end with wire brush and spray starting fluid,carb,cleaner,or a put a few drops of gas in the plug hole,put plug back in and it should fire and prime the fuel system. Good luck. Shoveling sucks.

Music to my ears

Looks like I'm in for around 6" of snowman making snow and some good winds! Temps still have me a lil scared

Woke up to the pleasant surprise of a Winter Storm Watch being issued and NWS Gaylord making this man child very happy. Lol Just hope it verifies with no NW shift! After a few days of waffling back and forth, model consensus has mostly coalesced on a track across north central lower. This would likely bring the surface low across the Thumb region which is usually very favorable for heavy snowfall across much of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan given the expected ample moisture being transported up from the south as well as sufficiently cold air. A few outlying solutions do track the surface low farther northwest across northern lower which would cut into snowfall amounts and introduce precipitation type issues but have discounted these solutions for now. So snow is expected to develop early Tuesday morning and become heavy at times Tuesday afternoon and evening before diminishing early Wednesday. Looking at thermal profiles the consistency of the snow is expected to be heavy/wet which will likely exasperate travel difficulties as well as possibly lead to isolated power outages (especially given gusty northeast winds). Wrap around/lake effect snow behind the system is then expected Wednesday. Inland total snow accumulations are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range with some spots possibly seeing close to a foot. Lakeshore areas near Saginaw Bay will likely see lesser amounts in the 4 to 8 inch range due to a possible mix with rain and lower qpf amounts. Winter storm watches will be issued.

That would help a lot as the easterly wind might enhance snowfall vs making it rain if it was warm aloft. Being right next to the Lake Huron shore can have huge impacts on weather, sometimes like a micro climate mechanism.

Thanks for posting the NBM. Didn't know about it before and wish I hadn't now lol I have noticed the shift SE again tho on 18z runs. Sure is nice to track something either way!

NWS is only giving Alpena a 20% chance of 4" + and interior northern mi 80%. Stating closer to Lake Huron the greater chance of rain mix. Not sure if they are using NAM as usual to base forecast as ECMWF and GFS both moved the slp more south today. Time to thread the needle!

Lastest ECMWF SE shift puts me back into the best snows. Still worried about wind off the lake creating p type issues. Let's see if the next GFS run follows suit. As for slp, pretty remarkable how consistent models have been for a sub 980mb low in the great lakes region for over a week. Now the show really begins.

After lurking around and watching models for a week thinking I was in a good location here in Alpena, it looks like the rug is being pulled NW. Interesting to see how almost every model has shifted NW in the last day. What happened? Is the NAM reeling this into it's realm or will the models shift back SE? Just a few hundred mile shift has me go from 4" to 16". The low is now forecast to be right offshore of Alpena as a 975ish mb low which leads to precipitation type issues with the E wind over warm Lake Huron. Seen it too many times over the years,unless air temp is under 30 which then develops lake enhanced snow. This one's going to be a nail biter! After December I will take whatever I can get! Just happy to track some storms and read the posts on here taking note of everyone's analysis. Hoping to reel this back SE though!

NWS issued a winter storm warning for me this evening here in Alpena, starting at 1pm Wednesday thru 7pm Thursday. Forecasted to get 7" to 12" with 30mph winds off Lake Huron which should enhance snowfall. I'm ready to be buried!!!

Woke up pleasantly surprised with 7" of fluff. Spent the morning snowblowing then played around on the atv. Looks like I'm going to do it all over again this time next week. Cant wait!

Latest NAM is jackpot here in Alpena,mi. I'll believe it when I see it lol

I've been reluctant to post in this thread hoping not to jinx this storm away from me. Lol Looking like a solid 6" storm with 30 mph winds off Lake Huron which could create some rare lake enhancement here in Alpena. It will also be a rare daytime,heavy accumulation snow event. Hopefully it doesnt get too warm and we get rain or the storm shifts NW and get nothin...

The sun is peaking thru the clouds here in alpena,mi during peak angle and wind is really starting to ramp up with gusts to 30 mph. Very light flurries falling. I'm only expecting up to an inch for the rest of the storm with lots of blowing and drifting.

Well I was giddy as a school girl at 11pm when the rain changed to snow here in Alpena. I was thinking it was going to rain all night. Woke up to about 2-4in of concrete snow. It's still lightly snowing and the wind is really ramping up. Hoping to atleast get a few more inches thru Sunday and some drifting. Atleast I'll have a white Christmas even if it's not a historic blizzard.

Man I was only 3 yrs old. I do remember snowier winters in the late 80s to 90s as a kid here tho. Btw it's now finally puking flakes and it's time for bed. Hoping to wake up to atleast a few inches ( that's what she said)

Forecast via APX now saying Alpena,Michigan remains rain until 9am Fri. Looks like heaviest precipitation will be thru by time it changes over to snow and then 4" total. I sure hope they are wrong. But they tend to know their stuff. I'm pretty disappointed as many others now.

Rain here for the past hour in Alpena. 15 miles away inland theres already 2".

Lucky lol Its rain in alpena right now. I'm in the city about a mile or two inland from Lake Huron.Hopefully it changes over quick here. I love snow! Lol Regardless I'll be happy to have a white Christmas after how the past ones have been...

Thanks again. I was thinking the low center would be further east initially watching the ecmwf,cmc,gfs the past few days. Now NAM and a few others show the low centered as u mentioned.Being that close to the low and Lake Huron will bring warmer air in for a period of time cutting into snow total right? Or could it make it produce more eventually being that close to the deepening low? Definitely an interesting setup taking shape. Just hope it's not a bust here after an initial 8-12" forecasted up until 3 hrs ago by NWS.

Wow thanks so much for the breakdown on what might happen. Btw which models are you looking at? I'm definitely hoping all snow lol I'll have updates as things unfold. Unfortunately the main show might be just northwest of me.

APX are the only place predicting Alpena stays too warm overnight and gets rain. It would cut into some of the best precip rates too. I only see two models showing that too. Hopefully they get that part wrong. Atleast for my sake lol

Here it is! I cant remember the last time we were under one...

Bring it on! Ready to buried!