Prismshine Productions

Just want to point this out: The 6z ENS suits (GEFS and EPS both) had the ridge taller and the energy digging further west. The 12z run from yesterday is still very much on the table, because we all know that models have a tendency to overcorrect (which is what I suspected happened from 18z last night through 6z GFS OP this morning. Got a hunch we see the ridge trend back more amped with taller heights like ALL of us need until we find the median for the Short range wheelhouse. Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

Took a peek under the hood 6z ECMWF had a significantly taller ridge than 0z run, 6z GEFS also phased further west Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

GEFS slightly improved on the snow mean over 0z... Let the games begin Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

6z even later phase for the 23rd Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

Well that is certainly a different solution... EPS called for a Christmas Day storm Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

Based on the trends today, dead on the money Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

EPS continues the trend of flattening the ridge Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

And before everyone goes all doomer... All we did was went back to the mean average from 0z last night no big deal Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

Not surprised, went to a lot of ice Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

CMC ensembles actually improved over 12z Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

Not surprised to be honest, we in that 5-7 day range of losing support Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

GEFS what you doing[emoji102][emoji102][emoji102][emoji102] Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

That may be so but I am just doing a basic observation off the lead-in 2m and 850mb temps, both went up for hr162 Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

Looks like the GEFS is going to take a step back too Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

Yeah, it cut sooner due to the flatter ridge Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

102 ridge is slightly higher Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

Out to 84, ridge is slightly less than at 12z hr90 Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

NBM Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

National Blend of Models, it is essentially the average Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

NBM holy moly... Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

Canadian ensembles are on it too, keep that in mind Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

I had it on the wrong model run (was looking at the 6z 500mb) Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

500mb vort confirms the trough over Sibera keeps trending stronger, shunting the ridge further east and being the fly in the ointment Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

EPS looks like it isn't going to cut it either... Oof Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

No it isn't CMC Ensembles increased the snow totals over the Carolinas vs its 0z run GEFS increased vs 6z EURO was close, but we know the EURO OP has been on an island compared to its ensembles so the GFS is far from being alone here. You cannot take the OP runs at face value at this range Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk