Gino27

21 minutes ago, jaf316 said:

Question: is there a chance that the energy coming in behind the storm will come in faster and pull the storm further NW? 

Yeah it's a possibility and it's what we're rooting for to happen. Need main wave to be just a tad slower and west as the second energy has been trending faster. Phasing looked best yet on this euro run, but it didn't translate down to the surface much like the NAM.

5 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Beggers can’t be choosers but nonetheless disappointing. Hopefully we are in for a nice surprise though 

Boom potential is definitely there with the right band placement. We still convincing ourselves ULL's hold on longer before transferring compared to models?

Seems as if a tiny difference in the stream interaction (1-3 hours) is the difference between central Ohio getting heavy totals and almost nothing. Virtually no model is accurate enough to nail that down imo. 

Sleet could be risk along and SE of I-71 IF things hold where they are

If we keep this momentum of ticking west, and phasing more with the shortwave (which the 18z euro did beautifully) I really like our chances 

Nam is a disappointment

Euro doing the same thing as GFS. ULL sightly east, but more phasing and more precip to the west. If we could get that ULL to come a bit west I think a lot of us are in business.

11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

nam came in with a much better phase, pulling things further west.

Something to ponder. Compared to 6z GFS, which I think is what 12z nam initialized on, has the first energy faster and stronger than what is actually occurring. Is this what allowed the 12z Nam to phase more? 

Only reassuring thing for Columbus area is that we only need about a 30 mile shift west to see some decent snow. That can happen all the way down to 24 hours before even starts.

Euro did some weird crap. Came west with precip but ULL was east. Tomorrow will be very interesting

3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I know the nam 48+ and the icon are the Larry and Mo of the model suites but it's interesting that they both came dramatically nw for the same reason ...better phasing with the northern stream.    Have to wonder if some new data is involved and a legit trend or just another head fake.

There has been a subtle trend on all models to make the trough negative sooner which could help bring everything west. Time is on our side if that evolution wants to take place with new data.

Lol at the NAM. If only…

I’m definitely not a fan of recent trends. The ridge out west is much stronger and models are just starting to pick it up, which is forcing things east. 

Euro crushes US-23 corridor 

3 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Funky wobble east before lifting on the 18z. 

Even though there's really no blocking to keep this thing from going more west, I think a near miss to the east is most likely. I expected the GFS to start heading SE eventually.

1 hour ago, chuckster2012 said:

Me either in southern Indiana but GFS sayd yes!

Not the new run. It's windshield wiper time!

38 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

12z GGEM finally loading and it looks very similar to the GFS.

Euro took a huge step towards GFS/CMC camp. I wonder what the western limit of this trend could be. 100 hours is an eternity with something this complex.

Wow

GFS just spit out the wackiest run of all time, but nonetheless NW trend continues.

5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Euro joins in with the GFS trying to pull this sucker NW on the curve around.

Sure did. Something to watch going forward, but our anti-snow force field will be in full effect!

2 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Man I love optimistic Buckeye!!! LOL

All seriousness, long way to go on this. 

No doubt. If we learned anything from the last storm, we're not in or out of anything until the snow is on the ground.

This, however, is what I like to see for snow around here.

10 hours ago, chuckster2012 said:

00z gives Ohio and Indiana a few inches next weekend. ( very subject to change.)./

GFS brings a miss to the SW. I think a SW miss is the only one we haven't had yet this year.

GFS and NAM show a tiny clipper early next week. Euro had it yesterday. Now that I’ve put it on the internet it’ll disappear!

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

For me, there's about 5 weeks left before I start hoping for warmth vs. snow.   When it comes to March, go '08 or go home.  

I usually call it quits around the last week of February. I get awfully tired of the short days and lack of foliage.

Unless we find a way to scrape together 1.3" of snow in the next 7 days. Columbus will be on pace for the least amount of snow since 1940, barring only the 2006-2007 season in which we would need 4" by the 21st to surpass. Even the infamous 2011-2012 winter had 4.5" of snow accumulated by January 14th.