NorthHillsWx

Couple bouts of white rain. Other than that, nada. Can’t call an event that was never supposed to produce over an inch a bust, but feels like one

36 and rain some pingers now too. Temps dropped 2 degrees since sunset

Amen

HRRR really keeping hope alive for the Triangle folks. If nothing else, it’s been consistent

Awesome awesome cold air look at the end of the GFS run. Classic cold air transport from the arctic

Feel for you guys. That’s a gut punch

From friend in Blowing Rock early this morning. About 4” in these pics and they’ve picked up a couple more since then. A good spot to be today

So in summary: 1) nothing has changed East of the Triad. Forecast still on track. Some areas saw flakes this morning but it was never supposed to stick outside of Triad. Still on track for the C-1 forecast and I do think some areas even East of the triangle will have some surprise totals higher than that 2) Unfortunately, bust for the triad folks. You’ll see snow, but it will not amount to the totals we were seeing last night. Deform band has trended south on models too, so it will be a wait and see for you guys 3) Charlotte is in play with that deform band. Actually has trended in that direction today 4) Mountains have done well, but definitely a screw zone even there. Foothills are just getting into it. Probably slightly less than forecast there but there will be some decent snow

So a winter storm warning for rate-driven 1-2” snow... I’d have pulled the plug on it

Love when people back the term “dumping” up with pictures. Congrats! You guys always seem to score looks beautiful

I’m hugging the HRRR for this evening’s dusting up to 39 with on and off rain. Sun broke through a few times

I agree, but the warning level snows were only going to verify if this front end produced in the triad area. Outside of that it’s been what occurs with the ULL passage and deform band all along, nothing has changed there. It will still snow from west to East this afternoon and I agree, there will be some surprises. But the triad is likely north of this feature if overnight and this morning’s modeling verify. These ULL scenarios are very tricky as they can be so localized. Someone will get 3 inches and the other side of the county sees white rain

Pretty scene at wolf ridge right now https://skiwolfridgenc.com/the-mountain/web-cam

With the overnight models + radar and observations at our disposal this morning, I’m extremely skeptical anyone outside the foothills/mountains sees 2 inches. I’m now thinking this will be a coating-1 inch event at most across the state (East of Shelby to mount airy) and it will all be with the ULL low. Triad looks to be biggest bust but with observed temp profiles, radar, and mid level dry air persisting it does not appear that area of steady snow will occur before the ULL passage

If you want snow East of the 85 corridor this evening you need that deform band to stay together with the passage of the ULL. Overnight modeling, aside from the HRRR, has basically lost that idea, and dissipates the band largely East of the Triad. The entire event hinges on that band so it will be a nail biter for sure. This first burst of snow ongoing is just going to be mood flakes

Big, wet flakes now mixed in. Got the Carolina special ongoing: rain/sleet/snow Edit: now mostly snow, 70% flakes, 30% slop. Definitely rate driven as expected

Rain/sleet mix in north hills area. Temp dropped a couple degrees when it started, down to 37 from 39

For the Raleigh area, the storm will be a: BOOM if we see 2 inches BUST if we only receive token flakes Always gotta set those expectations!

My Final Call: Raleigh: 1/2-1 Durham: 1-2 Greensboro: 2-4 Charlotte: T-1/2 Asheville: 3-5

Latest HRRR looks to be good for central N.C.

Exactly what the Euro depicts. I didn’t think we’d start as snow but I guess that’s on the table now

Always exciting to be under the first winter weather headline of the year. Liking the trends today in the Raleigh area. Think my odds of getting the grass covered are north of 50% now

That’s pretty conservative, even for RAH lol

The Canadian was a very good run for N.C. the Triad into SW Va would have warning level snows and the triangle would be advisory level for the most part. Gets that deform band going and goes across the whole state pretty much. Amounts not high East of Triad but widespread snow, and less splotchy. Sorry upstate, tho

My thoughts are NWS Raleigh will issue a WWA from Randolph through Durham and up to Vance county tonight at some point for 1-2” of snow. East of there I doubt anything gets issued unless a deform band sets up and it will be a quick fire issuance. I’m actually feeling better about most areas in the triangle getting at least a coating of snow which is a win and some areas could have a few surprises.