NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022
NorthHillsWx replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Hopefully things turn in January. Modeling for the system tomorrow explains why we can’t have nice things: strong coastal storm development with a nice northwest trend over the last 24 hours and cold dry air preceding the event during good climo… but Great Lakes low kills HP cold source and we’re stuck with rain -
What a great overachiever here today. Still raining and we’re over 1” for the event. Doubt we’ll get too much more but this was the rainfall we needed. Also, what an incredible temp drop. It has now dropped more than 20 degrees from the early morning high, now sitting a 42.7 Edit: Finished with 1.04” for the event and that puts us at 2.01” MTD
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Great widespread soaking rain for the area today. Temp has crashed to 50.0 from a high of 65.8 early this morning and we’re sitting at 0.60” of rain and coming down good still
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There are some signs the western trough tries to propagate eastward and the raging pacific flow trends away with more west coast ridging towards the first week of January. SE ridge never goes away but at least our cutters will be going over the mountains instead of the UP of Michigan and cold air will be much closer instead of north of the Canadian border…
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The SE ridge says “thou shalt not have cold weather in the SE this year”
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Still a pandemic. I doubt anyone would be making the trip into the Philippines. At least I am aware of none. I know josh isn’t due to COVID. BTW- we now have a cat 5
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RAI absolutely went beastmode today. May make a run at Cat 5 before landfall. Any chasers going to be documenting this one?
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Becoming pretty typical here to punt an entire winter month without a single threat. Onto January
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Cold morning, got down to 26.6 with heavy frost. Feels like a spring pattern, 20’s and mid 70’s in same week…
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Starting the 20th begins an active period that may feature our first real tracking opportunity of the season.
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Picked up 0.67” of much-needed rainfall yesterday. 0.97” MTD
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Now the weekend system is looking dry…
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Looks like a storm around the 21-23 period then a real flip to winter. Could be a period with a western ridge and eastern trough so I think that week may need to be watched. The 21-23 storm may have some winter impacts but without a source of cold air before the system this will be a rainmaker likely. It usually takes a storm like that to flip the pattern here though… maybe some reason for optimism heading into end of the month tho
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That would do it
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As expected the heaviest rain held south and east of here. Only picked up 0.30” of much-needed rain. Sharp cutoff north of here so I’ll take what we got but need every drop from here on out this month and beyond
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18z is an unholy torch for everyone but the west coast
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Euro wins… strung out mess tomorrow. What looked like a decent rain now looks to be very light
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December is a punt. Questionable if we’ll even get below freezing more than once before Christmas
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With our rapidly worsening drought situation you gotta pull for the GFS. Euro dry through mid month almost
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Warm and Dry. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
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Finished November well short of 1” of rainfall with a monthly total of 0.77.” It’s as dry as it’s been in years here right now, and no relief in sight. I expect most of NC will be in moderate drought conditions by next week
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Low of 27.1 this morning
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Looks like something you see out west, not good
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Big positive of the big dry we’re in: easy to blow leaves. Got the yard blown in record time, even with the wind today
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Doesn’t look to be getting better in long range
