NorthHillsWx

To me the biggest question of the storm is now QPF. Is this in the 0.75” range (CAMs) which would no doubt cause issues but not anything like some of the 1.5-2” outputs we’d been seeing on the globals. There is a huge gap between those sets of guidance and that will dictate whether this is a memorable ice storm or just a sloppy mixed bag with moderate amounts of each precip type

RAH mentions decreased QPF on overnight modeling for the NC piedmont in their recent AFD. Still going with 0.5-0.75” ZR

Eric Webb just said he sees more failure modes for a major ice accumulation in piedmont areas than he did this morning: https://x.com/webberweather/status/2014544089119953034?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

Yea the ice area is likely shifting to climo regions. The wish casting mostly for Raleigh. Verbatim still an ice storm but worst of it is clearly heading to climo

Mess but not what we thought… if we end up with an inch of sleet and 0.25” of ice after what we thought I mean that can only be described as a whiff on the forecast

All of the upstate to part of the triangle is above freezing for the last wave of precip. Wow, this might be a forecast whiff

GFS appears to have ticked north, not insignificantly

GFS is a few ticks warmer at surface too

If LP really rides up to Ohio I don’t care how strong the wedge is anyone not in the most CAD climo spots will get above freezing. This didn’t seem possible 12 hours ago. I’m not calling for bust yet but unless the trend stops we’re 1) going to be much warmer and 2) much less QPF. There might be light at the end of the tunnel

I will say this, ICON and NAM ticked pretty far north with main moisture feed. If that shows up on other modeling the severity of this goes way way down. Freezing drizzle sucks but it doesn’t get you to damaging ice

Yes, whatever ticks people are seeing on here it keeps getting warmer at surface on most modeling

There is a path out of this if the main moisture feed misses us to the north and west. This has happened plenty of times with rainstorms

You’d have to be on drugs to draw that map

Get y’all’s storm plans in place triangle folks

Yep and that’s in line with most predictions. Even conservative WRAL is going with 0.5-1” here in Raleigh which is pretty wild for them