NorthHillsWx

Also has it pretty much on the coast at 100 mph now

Bet this is close to major already

Next recon will be telling.

I’m going with an overnight/morning peak of 105 kts and a LF at 80 kts

Regional hurricane models had a large uptick at 18z for overnight intensity. Really wouldn’t be shocked at all to see a major overnight. Also, this is never going to be a photographic hurricane, too much shear for that

Easily the best satellite presentation of the system’s life right now. How spicy does it want to get overnight?

Very impressive ring of convection developing around the…. Eye…. Yes we have a legit eye now! Appears to be making another leap

FL supported 80 kts but they noted tail Doppler found slightly higher winds around them enough to justify the increase. With organization once again looking better there’s nothing to argue why further increases wouldn’t be expected tonight as well

Not a bad looking storm at all!

Yep. Core is there and it will be moving over slightly warmer waters too. Diurnal max will be the max for this system. Imo 95-105 kts is attainable

Recon seems supportive of 80 kts, closing in on cat 2 at a much more modest rate today

Looks like a legit eye to me but it’s only cleared out bc the convection waned and isn’t overshooting it from the SW I believe. Looks legit now

My expectation for most of the piedmont is 1" but I would not be surprised in the coastal convection robbed even more moisture and there is a screw zone of like 1/2" between here and PTI

Been on the same pattern since yesterday of convection really dying off during diurnal minimum but coming back with a vengeance overnight

Very impressive structure especially given the shear. If it maintains the current blow up of storms during the convective minimum that could allow significant intensification