NorthHillsWx

If anyone’s followed models or honestly just looked at the system and avoided social media it’s been very apparent for days this will be an upper-tier TS or bottom line cat 1 hurricane when it makes its closest approach. Based on what I’ve seen it likely skirts just south of the big island. Nothing shocking or surprising has happened this system has largely followed the forecast, though I agree at present it would seem to be unlikely this reaches hurricane intensity before its closest approach

98.5 heat index of 109. This is as bad as it gets. 13 days without rain its getting crispy again

I know it’s always overzealous with the tropics but the recent GFS run shows 4 separate MDR systems in a row including 94L and 92L, the current invests. While Caribbean shear and the TUTT over SW Atlantic persists this active wave could really boost season numbers tho I doubt any get far west or very strong

Fairly pleasant outside this evening. “Only” made it to 89.6 and heat index never got above 92 with tolerable DPs in the 60s. Tomorrow is back to the oven

Looks like one of those CAG systems in the Caribbean

Pretty surprising to see this much MDR activity in a strong nino in August. Heck even some recent Augusts with La Niña couldn’t produce in MDR

Based on current presentation this might be the rare and infamous single advisory storm

93L likely became a brief tropical storm overnight based on the LLC seen on visible this morning but since that time convection has been ripped well to east of center. Might be a numbers booster in post season analysis

RDU precip shield holds again. Guess it was just under repair during July

A DP of 82 at 4pm is diabolical

9 days straight without rainfall here and, coupled with the heatwave, it has rapidly dried out. Maybe we get in on the MCV action tonight. SPC Bumped it to a level 2 for western half of the state tonight

They bumped the threat level up today for the possibility that a MCV passes through this evening. Level 2 risk for triangle, triad, and foothills/mountains this evening and early overnight. Will be interesting to see if this pans out models all over the place.

At least we have irrigation again

Think models are seeing just how hostile upper level environment actually is ahead of whatever forms but still a very strong signal for development. Will it be strong or long track? Probably, almost definitely, no

High peaked at 99.1 but heat index peaked at 110.7. This is absolutely brutal weather and no outflows to save us today