NorthHillsWx

Rachel well on its way to becoming *yet another* high end Major hurricane in this ludicrous EPAC season

As we are now in October and with absolutely nothing showing in any modeling, I am folding. For the first time this year I think the odds of not getting a hurricane exceed the odds of seeing a hurricane in the Atlantic basin. I'm going 60/40 odds (no hurricane/hurricane) at this point with only a CAG system as the realistic most likely chance to break the streak. Unbelievable

Near-record highs today and tomorrow look to be replaced with actual fall next week. I hope these are the last 90's of the year, there is a good chance they are

At 2.10" MTD we will finish yet another month well below normal in the rainfall department. In fact, we have finished BN in precip in 12 of the last 13 months at my location (comparing to RDU average monthly totals). Falls Lake which made a huge recovery after the record wet July has tanked and is now more than 5 feet below full pool. Kerr Lake has continued its fall and not sits more than 11 feet below full pool. The fall is typically when reservoirs are at their lowest but these levels are well below expected normals and will set us up poorly for next year unless the pattern changes for the region. I know El Nino SHOULD produce AN precip during the fall and winter across the area, we are at the point now where we need it to produce. Fingers crossed this weekend is the start of the change

I’ll believe it when I see it

91L looks like it developed a surface circulation on visible this morning, though it is highly sheared and looks to remain as such through its existence. Would not shock me if it steals a name and boosts the seasonal NS numbers of this weird season.

Fay is one of the longest lasting storms that failed to reach hurricane intensity I can remember. We’re into the 30’s on NHC advisories. If that convection persists there’s a chance it retains storm status today too

I’ve been out of town (enjoying the absolutely beautiful weather in Banner Elk) this weekend but saw we dipped to 49.0 yesterday morning back home, our first 40’s of the season. RDU was even cooler, 48. What an incredible stretch after one of the most miserable summers in history

Fay looks like it’s trying. Kinda like its first bout with flirting with hurricane intensity, about an 18 hour window this go round before the shear arrives

If it wasn’t for the stable environment surrounding Fay now we’d have a mid latitude microcane. Decent looking system on visible but very clearly limited by dry air surrounding it

Spoke too early, a rain shower developed and dropped temps. Currently at 57.7 so first 50’s of the season at my location!

Finished with 0.07 yesterday and 0.18” storm total. 2.08” MTD. Looks extremely likely September will finish as yet another month well below normal in the rainfall department. 60.2 out this morning, still haven’t cracked the 50’s but should tonight

61.2 with light rain/drizzle. Just a few hundredths of an inch so far. Will almost certainly finish a "storm" total under 1/4" (including yesterdays rain), pretty big disappointment given modeling, forecast and SPC flood risks for the area coming into the event. Western NC big winner again

Appears as if Fay has come back from the dead

We crushed you here: 0.11” It did bring the MTD total over two inches, 2.01”