NorthHillsWx

The aren't, they are calling for post-tropical aka open wave

Pretty wild the NHC had to include this in its discussion this morning: The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV Hurricane Committee. The name Dolly replaced Diana after the 1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.

The relief from the heat was nice, as were the low DPs. Back up into the 70's with current DP. Looks like another extended period AN just as football season kicks off, joy

Funny, getting classified as the shear leaves it a naked swirl, whereas it was likely a TS most of the night and looked much, much better

I think the biggest difference is, during those recent dead August's, the primary limiting culprit was abnormally high SAL. That hasn't been an issue this year, yet the basin has remained so hostile in the upper levels that even strong waves with solid moisture envelopes have failed to develop. The cap got blown off in those previous seasons because SAL decreased heading into September. This year, there are no indications the shear will subside (but for windows as your forecast notes) and it won't be so much of a "back loaded" season more than a wave finding a small window during peak climo. Also, there is some science to back Nina seasons being more back-loaded than Nino seasons. With almost 0 activity to this point, just few storms might appear to make this look back loaded, but I seriously doubt we see the cap come off like in recent years with frequent high-end development through September or even beyond. With Nino strengthening, I actually could see an early end to the season as well. It only takes 1, and with water temp anomalies off the SE coast running about the highest in the basin, that is of concern, but it is going to take perfect timing and a thread the needle type event to get a system through to take advantage. The rest of the basin is likely cooked besides some low-end development, like 96L

I'm not quite sure how 96L hasn't been classified as at least a depression. It looks better formed than several TS's from earlier this season on the morning visible and one would think after how close it was on ASCAT yesterday and given marked improvement since, it would definitely qualify as a tropical cyclone. As for intensity, it is probably a TS given information yesterday had some TS wind barbs and it has only improved since. Me thinks this gets named at 11...

Low of 62.9 this morning, my coolest morning low since June

Morning visible reveals some decent low level spin, showing this has developed a surface low. However, convection has waned this morning and remains extremely disorganized. NHC has dropped odds to 60% of developing and it seems it has about a 36 hour window and conditions are marginal even during this time. 3 straight cherries failing to develop might be a first that I can recall, if 96L truly doesn't get classified as at least a TD. I do not believe in the "survivor" scenarios some ensembles show in the SW Atlantic. The TUTT this thing is going to run into is going to annihilate an open wave (30-40 kts shear) I would be shocked if anything gets through to develop. Just shocking how hostile the basin is from a shear perspective. We knew ENSO was going to be against development most of the season but seeing these extremely strong waves and a very active wave train with more limited SAL than recent seasons and not having a single one find a gap is wild. For perspective, if you took the background state of the Atlantic in any of the past few seasons and had the same SAL conditions and wave activity we are seeing with this year, I think the MDR would be setting records.

79/57 at 12:40. Amazing

*Almost* unanimous model support for *some* development but it is apparent this system has serious hurdles ahead of it. There is likely a window for development/strengthening over next few days, but then it hits a wall of shear, so options at that time are dissipation or weakening. Beyond that, location will be everything. If the system survives into the SW basin, there could possibly be an area of lower shear allowing for development as it likely recurves. If the system goes into Caribbean, it will be heading towards its grave. You're starting to see even the GFS back off on its latest run to a more realistic scenario given the harsh conditions ahead of the system. I am fairly confident this becomes a named storm but I do not think it has much of chance to be a long-tracked hurricane, and it likely won't have much window to intensify at all unless it makes it through the TUTT intact. Probably looking a weak, sheared TS for awhile

Some 50's across central NC this morning. Combined with the low humidity it feels great outside

Finished with 0.24” which brings MTD to 1.36”

It’s still raining but we’ve had just 0.21” today with a flood watch. Pretty sad

The nightmares…

First measurable rain since start of the month but just 0.02” lol