NorthHillsWx

Low of 62.9 this morning, my coolest morning low since June

Morning visible reveals some decent low level spin, showing this has developed a surface low. However, convection has waned this morning and remains extremely disorganized. NHC has dropped odds to 60% of developing and it seems it has about a 36 hour window and conditions are marginal even during this time. 3 straight cherries failing to develop might be a first that I can recall, if 96L truly doesn't get classified as at least a TD. I do not believe in the "survivor" scenarios some ensembles show in the SW Atlantic. The TUTT this thing is going to run into is going to annihilate an open wave (30-40 kts shear) I would be shocked if anything gets through to develop. Just shocking how hostile the basin is from a shear perspective. We knew ENSO was going to be against development most of the season but seeing these extremely strong waves and a very active wave train with more limited SAL than recent seasons and not having a single one find a gap is wild. For perspective, if you took the background state of the Atlantic in any of the past few seasons and had the same SAL conditions and wave activity we are seeing with this year, I think the MDR would be setting records.

79/57 at 12:40. Amazing

*Almost* unanimous model support for *some* development but it is apparent this system has serious hurdles ahead of it. There is likely a window for development/strengthening over next few days, but then it hits a wall of shear, so options at that time are dissipation or weakening. Beyond that, location will be everything. If the system survives into the SW basin, there could possibly be an area of lower shear allowing for development as it likely recurves. If the system goes into Caribbean, it will be heading towards its grave. You're starting to see even the GFS back off on its latest run to a more realistic scenario given the harsh conditions ahead of the system. I am fairly confident this becomes a named storm but I do not think it has much of chance to be a long-tracked hurricane, and it likely won't have much window to intensify at all unless it makes it through the TUTT intact. Probably looking a weak, sheared TS for awhile

Some 50's across central NC this morning. Combined with the low humidity it feels great outside

Finished with 0.24” which brings MTD to 1.36”

It’s still raining but we’ve had just 0.21” today with a flood watch. Pretty sad

The nightmares…

First measurable rain since start of the month but just 0.02” lol

Worried the clouds have stabilized the triangle area. Rainfall focus seems to strongly be south and east of here where some earlier destabilization occurred with sunshine.

19 days since last measurable rain here. Hoping to end that today or tomorrow but outflow from the main line east of here has passed over, probably killing the chance

Evaporated before getting here too. Rained for 20 min but very light and not measurable. TR for the day

No rain in 15 days here

Total whiff by models, but testament to just how hostile the basin is with El Niño roaring

Seems like the center will pass well south of the big island, but with elevation I’m sure some very strong winds will occur on land