NorthHillsWx

Yea ensembles haven’t really budged. I’m confident we see daily storm chances starting Wednesday/Thursday depending where you are and continuing for the next week. If we can get near normal rainfall it will be a huge win considering where we stand currently. Drove over falls lake here earlier and it is shocking how much it has fallen in last 2 weeks

Would be par for the course if we watch most of this go west of apps and around us but at a minimum it looks like a return to at least scattered afternoon storms across NC most days

Ensembles haven’t changed much. Still looks wet. Only concerning thing I have is boundary setting up north and west of triangle area. Seems to have trended stronger with SER recently meaning boundary is pushed back somewhat

93.2 here

EPS and GEFS both look very wet. And it’s not dependent on just one storm system, but a summer pattern with storms most afternoons and possibly a stalled frontal boundary. This is the best look for rainfall since August

44.8 here this morning, felt incredible walking out the door

This is a good page WRAL put together to track rainfall at RDU: https://www.wral.com/weather/page/1934052/ Going back 6 months you can see all the months under 1” total for the month. Insane deficits and we’re going the wrong direction still

Before the next rain some areas in northern piedmont will likely move into exceptional category

Latest drought monitor shows some improvement around the Charlotte area, SC and Georgia. Not much movement but probably the first time it’s trended positively in 6 months. This was expected as those are the areas that capitalized on the rainfall earlier this month.

Didn’t you just get like a foot of rain

Per radar estimates some areas in the exceptional drought north of Jacksonville got 4-7”+ from this system too but like you said a large area of 1-3” was seen across that area south of you in the worst of the worst drought area

I don’t see another chance for widespread rain until the 8-9 day timeframe which would ensure another 2+ week stretch here without measurable rain. After finishing April with well under 1” of rain (our 4th time in last 8 months) we will be sitting under 1” going into the last week of May! While I have certainly enjoyed the cooler weather, that pattern change in central NC did absolutely nothing to alleviate drought conditions here.

Southern Georgia and northern Florida definitely got a beneficial system.

41.9 for the low, impressive amount of mid 30s in northern piedmont including my farm in Louisburg at 35.5! Won’t see these temps again till next fall

Rain chances Wednesday (90% NWS yesterday) have completely evaporated. Yet another system drying up east of mountains. I said 1” for the month was a lock but have definitely jinxed it in Raleigh area, it looks dry as a bone going forward!