NorthHillsWx

Ahhh back to the GFS seasonal love affair with the CAG

0.01” here for September, hopefully this weekend produces

They aren’t done yet. Norbert looks like it will at least threaten the islands. Crazy Nino

The reason that area near the Bahamas and Gulf has been relatively quiet despite low shear is mostly due to how hostile it is east of there, in the MDR where most of the disturbances originate from that could cause storms to form there. Waves and weak storms like Dolly simply are not able to make it west to take advantage of the better conditions. As said above, fronts digging down into the gulf or the fall CAG would be the likely source of anything tropical in those areas. Edouard showed us that it’s possible to get homegrown systems this year, and the likelihood of another ramps up as fall fronts start to make it to the gulf. However, these aren’t ever home runs for development and stronger fronts usually favor more wind shear and dry air as we get later into the fall. The window for something strong to take advantage of these ribbons of favorable conditions is not huge, but if the Atlantic produces anything of note it will likely originate in these two areas as the rest of the basin is completely cooked by shear

Hawaii is getting insanely lucky with Lowell. That’s a beast of a system

Next wave coming off Africa has some decent ensemble support for development at least early on…

Might as well circle my house and add D4 on next drought monitor. We’ll have to wait 10 more months for another AN month of rain I guess

0.00”. Saw the outflow coming before the storms were even here and knew we were cooked

Another miss for me. Incredible

Grand total of 0.01” here

Didn’t get as hot as yesterday, but still extreme. 100.5 was the high

96 at 11:30…. On pace for our hottest day of the year 1:20- up to 100.2

Just caught the outflow from the storm sitting over RDU and it feels incredible

Looks like RDU made it at least to 101

Nope it fell apart just before reaching here, nothing but some mood drops. We blew the top off the thermometer today, topped out at 101.8!!!