NorthHillsWx

No one *knows* what this is going to do. It seemed LOCKED IN for a major ice storm. Now, we’ve got Mets doubling down, Mets refusing to make a call till go time, Mets cutting totals in half, Mets flip flopping with each model run, Mets calling out other Mets? weather apps spitting out 8” of snow, people wondering if their power will be out for days or if theyll be at work Monday. I mean this is absurd.

In all the storms we’ve tracked here this is my least favorite and it’s not even close

NAM is honestly a nuisance event in Raleigh. 0.30” of mixed QPF then the rest is plain old rain. WTF are we getting an ice storm or insignificant slop?

Hopefully they’re right, 0.30” though still impactful is nowhere close to what happens when you approach 0.50” I guess that’s why they waited to pull the trigger on the warning

Yea, that was a pretty drastic step back. Haven’t seen much that supported the original amounts recently but they went below most everything I’ve seen come out

RAH really cut ice totals back for Raleigh. 0.36” forecast, nearly cut in half from earlier. Anyone know what their thinking is on that? Less QPF and warmer? Seems like a huge step back but thankfully impacts would be significantly better

It already has busted thermals bc of a GLL it’s gonna rain

RAP is hours of light ZR. That is how you add up accrual

Looking closer at the 12z CAMs even though a lot of moisture was going north, you can see the showers that develop in the dry slot and I think that’s what some here have been picking up on- if you’re in the wedge even though you might get the dry slot it likely doesn’t stop precipitating. Happens all the time with warm season wedges, supposed to be 70 but stuck at 50 and drizzle, light rain. Not convinced the moisture goes north of us but if it does it doesn’t mean it stops the precip

Everyone’s burnt out. Storm that was supposed to start tonight is waiting till Sunday lol

On my way to the new storm thread

ICON is a massive hit across the board

I’ve been in this boat since yesterday. The trend to lower QPF has been clear and the dry slot is a distinct possibility. Would be in line with how the rest of the year has played out

Wonder is RAH is waiting to make sure there will be enough moisture to hit warning criteria east of current warning area?

Here’s how it helps us- the front end thump is roughly 0.30” in Raleigh. As depicted, that is all sleet. So if we only get 0.30-0.40” the rest of the event assuming runoff and maybe plain rain at the end there just isn’t enough QPF for the high end ice totals we were talking about 0.50”+