NorthHillsWx

It’s unfortunate there just isn’t enough cold air around Saturday because that slider has trended significantly wetter with a very favorable track for a cross state NC storm. Sad really

Same here. 23.5 was low. Proper winter morning

AI GFS has consistently shown a ripe pattern but I’m not sure it’s the one we want to hug. Maybe it scores a coup here. When EPS went south the other forum has turned into an endless stream of of AIGFS posts because it’s been a very good look

To me, today was perfect. High right at 40 with sun. Maybe I’m sick in the head, but 40 with sun is like a crispy warm to me. Love it

I’m retiring from this hobby, there’s too much pain. Between this winter and the Clemson football season it’s been pretty tough on the soul

This is perfect

Give me a loaded STJ and I don’t care about blocking or anything else the more systems you get even in a crap pattern maybe one will time it right. At this point there might be 2 total storm systems in the southeast this month and the odds one of them produces snow are minimal at best! I know it’s one run but damn everything is dry as a bone

Happy hour GFS literally drops no QPF the ENTIRE RUN in central NC! Cold isn’t the main issue!!!

Neither the GFS nor the EURO have meaningful QPF in central NC until January 14!

12z GFS drops a total of 0.00” QPF on RDU through January 9

Nope. I think a lot of Mets who broke and honked the big storm horn for that 4-11 timeframe are going to be looking for excuses. This has become a punt like we saw 2019-21 where the pattern change keeps getting delayed and then even those drinking hopium look up and it’s March. I’m trying not to be pessimistic but when you’re pointing to indices and analogs and trying to pull something that will happen IF this ridge moves or that so and so and it’s all 2 weeks down the road with models showing nothing positive and it’s January, you’re in a bad spot. We should be seeing fantasy storms and we’re not. It’s not even getting us fantasy rains.

Someone posted this on another forum so I’m not standing by it as factual but there’s a likelihood this month finishes with the most -NAO monthly value since 2010. To show for that most areas are going to finish NN to slightly BN for temps and below normal for snowfall. And during this period much of the south also one of their if not their hottest December stretch in history. To me this speaks volumes, blocking is AWESOME but with an uncooperative pacific you’re just not going to win. Everyone always gets excited when NAO tanks but as long as Alaska is frozen and that Aleutian high won’t budge, dislodging the pacific trough is going to be tough and you’re going to end up with exactly what we got

I’m not giving up but I never thought the front end was going to produce there just hadnt been a strong storm signal. It seemed DOA to me even if cold was available. We need to keep blocking for mid to late month and pray PNA actually goes positive which is questionable now

We made it to 67 yesterday late in the day so we had a 40 degree drop from 3 pm to our low of 26.6 at around 7 am. That’s impressive

26.6 this morning for the low, finally felt like winter again