NorthHillsWx

Recon would indicate a hurricane

Outflow finally expanding to the west. Seems like it’s getting there

GFS has been better than Euro and the hurricane models that took this well west of Jamaica. If anything they have started caving to GFS which was predicting the center reformation to the east that happened. That being said, none of this is good news for Jamaica they are squarely in the bullseye

My farm in Franklin county dipped to 33.1 and the airport close to there was 35. Frost advisory verified outside urban areas it would seem. Still my point click had me down to 37 this morning so we missed significantly

Only got down to 45.5 here

I don’t think it would on that track but NHC is showing it for continuity due to the otherwise extremely favorable environment. Track will play the pivotal role here in maximum intensity as all other factors would favor extreme intensification over the hottest water in the basin. GFS once again weak and east, similar to ICON. Will be some major losers on the model front from this one

As expected, severe drought has spread into central NC as far west as Wake county. Meanwhile a pocket of severe drought conditions have developed SE of Charlotte as well. Widespread rain looks possible next week and will be more than welcomed given the rapidly escalating drought conditions across the state. Some areas have seen under 2” of rain total since the second half of August

Obviously terrible flooding situation but that would be nonstop land interaction to keep it somewhat in check intensity wise

Overnight trends are east which probably would reduce the maximum potential intensity

It’s crazy that we have a defined center and named storm and the ensemble outputs look like a 2 year olds drawing

Severe drought very likely to expand across the Carolina’s and we are now likely to see back to back months with less than 1” of rain here. Not good, one bad symptom of the lackluster hurricane season

35 with heavy frost at the farm in Louisburg this morning! Was not expecting this. Was 42 at my house when I left

Someone needs to take the GFS out back and put it down like old yeller

Lorenzo fought valiantly but, RIP

Need to watch for some severe storms on Sunday