NorthHillsWx

Hate seeing that convection showing up on the coast, that typically screws us in these tropical setups. Ive seen this dozens of times with a tropical system going west of the apps retrograding into a large non-tropical low where days of heavy rain modeled ends up as a singular line of strong storms while the coast gets inches of rain and the convection sits there. This is not a great setup for prolonged rain in the piedmont of NC. Eastern slopes of mountains will get pummeled though

Recon will tell us a lot here shortly. If this is going to make a run at a major, the bones need to be there now. A tight developing core would mean this likely goes major. Anything strung out and it probably doesn’t have time before shear inhibits it

From a public messaging perspective idk if we want to fall victim to ensuring everyone this falls apart before landfall especially if this, say it peaks as a cat 4 18 hours from landfall, and is roaring to the coast at 20 mph. That’s a big gamble

Agreed 100%. I don’t see how this doesn’t weaken and possibly significantly before landfall but it might be too late. That extremely fast motion into the coast is going to make this dangerous and likely have some jet streak interactions which could help it hold onto intensity longer than usual. I’m convinced tho that this exceeds most guidance (not unusual at all for this location especially with a small storm) in the short term

Small cyclone, nuclear grade water temps, BOC, divergent flow. This is going to explode today. Think even the aggressive models are undershooting intensity. Do not think this landfalls near peak intensity but next 24 hours I expect this to become a high end cane I’ve seen this look before in the gulf…

Regardless what happens on approach this thing is going to go boom today. That’s a heck of a satellite presentation this morning

Per Levi’s video yesterday this storm has trended to the exact thread the needle scenario he described to maximize intensity in this environment

Think we’re gonna make it all year without a hurricane then literally the last disturbance with a chance not only becomes a hurricane but now looks increasingly likely to become a major hurricane and threaten the gulf coast. Overnight pretty much all guidance ticked east and faster which aligns better with shear vector snd the right entrance region of the jet so now it’s finding the best runway available in the gulf to strengthen. The impressive organization overnight is no doubt the reason why, it is very clearly stronger than a lot of guidance had it at this point from yesterday. Not surprisingly, intensity has gone way up and I now think this becomes a major and I’m not convinced it doesn’t peak pretty close to the coast. This is becoming an increasingly dangerous situation for the coast. Mobile bay to Panama City seem to have the highest likelihood of landfall given overnight trends.

I’m not going to over analyze individual model runs but if it takes a track like the GFS shows that’s really bad for surge at the mouth of the Mississippi, bay St. Louis, biloxi bay, and possibly mobile bay. Landfall intensity is important but if this peaks maybe 6-8 hours before landfall any weakening would not affect surge potential at all. That’s a very bad track in that regard

Man, it looks really good on satellite right now. It’s got that look…

This system has escalated quite a bit from what the original thinking was. Definitely some potential for a strong hurricane especially in the middle of the gulf

NHC brings this to cat 2 at landfall

Right now, I’d say a strong TS or Cat 1 hurricane impact on the northern gulf coast is looking most likely. Does it peak as higher end intensity in middle of the gulf (most hurricane models)? Does it stay mostly weak (Euro, GFS)? Think the next 24 hours answer those questions but if I was on the northern gulf coast from lake Charles to Panama City I’d probably start planning for strong TS or Low end hurricane impacts being most probable with impacts likely starting late Friday

92L is very clearly organizing this morning with a robust and cohesive flare up of thunderstorms overnight. Organizational trends today will be critical as to whether this system manages to take advantage of the more favorable conditions present before shear increases later in the week. A lot of the weak models keep this thing disorganized for 48 hours whereas the stronger ones really start ramping up by tonight/tomorrow morning

Guidance is pretty stacked towards this becoming a hurricane at some point. Also starting to look like this becomes the dominant system between it and the EPAC storm, which will have some lessening of shear than we were thinking yesterday.