NorthHillsWx

Looking at satellite trends this is easily our best chance to break the hurricane drought of 2026

These storms tend to surprise you when they form under the conditions highlighted in your post. Would not be the first time a system south of the azores was dismissed only to pop an eye and surprise everyone. Agreed on the upgrade here, would almost have to acquire the eye for an upgrade as it is going to be extremely challenging to get a well timed ASCAT this afternoon when it peaks

Fay is born, now expected to peak at 50 kts. Still think there’s an outside chance this storm can approach hurricane intensity. Deep convection has been increasing near the center of the cyclone and in curved bands on its north side over the past several hours. The latest satellite intensity estimates have also increased and range from 35 to 47 kt. Considering these data and the ASCAT pass from last night, the initial wind speed is nudged up to 40 kt. This makes the system Tropical Storm Fay. The storm is quite compact, with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extent only about 40 n mi from the center and the associated convection extends about 100-150 n mi across. The combination of relatively moist air and baroclinic enhancements from an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should cause Fay to gain some more strength during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, the trough is expected to lift out on Monday, and an increase in shear and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause weakening by that time. Fay will likely become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by the end of the week as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term given the improvement in the storm's organization and expected baroclinic support. Fay is drifting to the north-northeast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 020/4 kt. This general motion should continue for about 24 hours. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is anticipated to build to the north of the storm on Monday, and that should cause Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in that direction during the early and middle portions of the week. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near a blend of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 33.7N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 34.1N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 34.0N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 33.3N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 32.0N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 31.0N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z 30.1N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z 28.9N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

If TD 6 can stay In that narrow pocket of lower shear I could see this system be a bit of a surprise strength wise. Wouldn’t shock me if this approached hurricane strength given the thermodynamic environment it resides in and small size. Obviously if it gets blasted by shear that is moot but this could be a surprise system

It was almost like NHC was just hoping it would go away so they didn’t have to classify it

24 hours later still wondering why 99L isn’t at least classified as a TD

Wedged in 60s for highs Wednesday???

Picked up 0.31” here, brings MTD total to 1.90”

If this was worth flying a plane into they’d called is a TD

Was about to post about that! WOW

Special update increased odds of 99L developing to 60% and that seems low given satellite. To me I’m not sure how this isn’t a depression at least but I think it is classified as such at 5 regardless

99L looks like a storm already. This is going to break the streak. This one snuck up on me

Back into severe drought status again here. Drought worsened noticeably in central NC on most recent monitor. Far Eastern NC and parts of western NC are drought free https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?NC

Made it to 63 but still haven’t hit 50s yet. Thought today we would

Low of 64.9 and with the lower humidity it finally feels somewhat fall like