NorthHillsWx

Think models are seeing just how hostile upper level environment actually is ahead of whatever forms but still a very strong signal for development. Will it be strong or long track? Probably, almost definitely, no

High peaked at 99.1 but heat index peaked at 110.7. This is absolutely brutal weather and no outflows to save us today

We got lucky on on the 2nd and picked up 1.12” but haven’t had anything since. Turned the sprinklers back on

Raleigh rain shield has been reengaged

2 lemons

Yea it’s in no way a primed environment but simply having an active storm out there this year is going to be an atmospheric accomplishment

MDR looks pretty dang active next 10 days. Caribbean is extremely hostile but there looks to be a window over MDR and possibly even north of islands. Could be a situation where anything that forms would have to thread the needle but there may be a path where something gets further west if it tracks north of the islands. Far too soon to tell but the development signal is very high at this point

High of 94, but heat index got to 105. Pretty miserable day. 0.00”

Short to mid-range guidance has definitely trended towards the dry side for much of NC with heat building back in next week. Was really hoping to kill the drought but we might yet start sliding again.

0.00” here overnight and yesterday. First miss in a long time

No kidding, but hard to complain when we have literally caught every storm last 5 weeks. I was looking forward to some fun thunderstorms this evening though

Picked up 0.03” (1.12” daily and MTD total) more yesterday evening but today has trended drier on models as the boundary sagged a little further south. With all the rain, it might be a blessing if we avoid a tropical system this year as grounds are completely saturated despite long term drought impacts. Earlier this summer I was adamant that we needed a tropical system to ease drought conditions but after the past month, it would likely be too much. What a crazy turnaround

I’ve had 15.58” since July 1. It’s moist out

1.09” here from several showers and 1 thunderstorm

Yep, midlands low country and SE NC keep repetitively missing the rains