NorthHillsWx

I like NHC call if around 50 kts landfall. Don’t think it has time for hurricane intensity unless it can throw up some serious overnight convection, but the overall organization and small circulation definitely favors intensification. That dry air to the north could choke off development, that needs to be watched, but otherwise it has a good look overall

Pretty serious organizational trend ongoing. Would not shock me to see some significant strengthening soon. This might be one we are posting about “thankfully not having more time over water”. Outflow looks well established and storms are clearly aligning the MLC and newly formed SLC. Starting to see winds ramp up on buoy and oil rig obs too

Latest HWRF says our first hurricane of 2026 will make landfall on the Tx/La border about this time tomorrow...

One other thing about this system that lends to the idea of it becoming a TS is frictional convergence and the shape of the coastline. This area of coastline is well known for tightening up weak systems on approach. To me this is a lock for our 5th short lived TS…

I would be shocked if the season didn’t produce a hurricane though I think the odds of an MDR hurricane are pretty low. Gulf and SW Atlantic are the 2 places I’m watching this month and for the rest of the season

Good call for NHC. Center is too broad at this time for a classification and plane hasn’t found any winds over 20 mph but the organization trend warrants PTC. Not far off but also not there yet

Crazy variance across the state in rainfall totals this month

Amazing what 40 kts of shear will do to ya. “Dolly” has passed through the wall of doom and entered a more favorable environment but not much left. Models have backed off again. If something were to happen I’d expect some steady flare up north of the islands today but odds of redevelopment are low

Looks pretty broad/open on south side. That mid level feature looks more impressive than what’s under the hood. This is why NHC waits for solid data before designating systems even close to land. Could see PTC at 11 tho

A light breeze based on that pass

Ghost of Dolly really feeling that shear now

Picked up a staggering 0.01” sending my MTD to 1.52”

Last chance of rain likely for the month today and I’m sitting about 3” below normal (just 1.52”). If we don’t get a flood today (unlikely) then that will be 11 of last 12 months BN precipitation here. Only saving grace is we received about 4 months worth of rain in July!

We’ll see what it looks like tomorrow morning, it is just now moving into the TUTT. It actually found a microscopic break in the worst shear last 2 days but it is heading into a wall of 30-40 kt shear my guess is NHC is banking on not much surviving, we will see

Dolly gets the axe and then immediately says “hold my beer”