NorthHillsWx

That’s a stunning storm east of Hawaii. Great grab, could fit the entire big island in the eye

Little back door front tomorrow will be quite nice for NC peeps but SC and Ga will have to wait

Radar showed anywhere between 1/4” and 1/2” for Fuquay

Sauna status here. Windows all fogged up. Grateful for the rain last night but it’s awful outside today

Finally got the rain we’d been looking for. Picked up 1.30” overnight which brings event total to 1.57” and MTD to 1.59”

Finally decent rainfall here, picked up 0.27 between a few separate showers. 0.29” MTD

Another measly 0.01” here. Brings mtd to 0.02”

May be in a heat pocket but we’ve surged to 98.7 at my house currently. Seems above most other obs EDIT: peaked at 99.3

Ahhh back to the GFS seasonal love affair with the CAG

0.01” here for September, hopefully this weekend produces

They aren’t done yet. Norbert looks like it will at least threaten the islands. Crazy Nino

The reason that area near the Bahamas and Gulf has been relatively quiet despite low shear is mostly due to how hostile it is east of there, in the MDR where most of the disturbances originate from that could cause storms to form there. Waves and weak storms like Dolly simply are not able to make it west to take advantage of the better conditions. As said above, fronts digging down into the gulf or the fall CAG would be the likely source of anything tropical in those areas. Edouard showed us that it’s possible to get homegrown systems this year, and the likelihood of another ramps up as fall fronts start to make it to the gulf. However, these aren’t ever home runs for development and stronger fronts usually favor more wind shear and dry air as we get later into the fall. The window for something strong to take advantage of these ribbons of favorable conditions is not huge, but if the Atlantic produces anything of note it will likely originate in these two areas as the rest of the basin is completely cooked by shear

Hawaii is getting insanely lucky with Lowell. That’s a beast of a system

Next wave coming off Africa has some decent ensemble support for development at least early on…

Might as well circle my house and add D4 on next drought monitor. We’ll have to wait 10 more months for another AN month of rain I guess