NorthHillsWx

MJO delivering but pacific won’t let us take advantage. Really wish La Niña would fade a little earlier, maybe we could break this patten quicker

Meanwhile PNA looks to stay negative the entire month, with some signs of another deep tank headed into January

Yea I wasn’t speaking to you, your post was just last in line for the other ones arguing about measurable snow. People saying the maps were wrong bc they hadn’t had any measurable and were showing up as a TR was really who it was directed to. Rather be arguing over 6 to 8 in or whether one spot hits blizzard criteria, not who has picked up 0.10” and who hasn’t

0z euro is acceptable

18z GFS is a SER nightmare

A trace means essentially at least one snowflake or sleet pellet was observed. That’s it, not measurable. You could have 100 TR events and it wouldn’t equate to measurable snow. So if those maps show 3 TR events for your backyard you still haven’t seen measurable. That being said, looking at those maps I’d say 50% of the state has seen 0.10” which technically is measurable. Someone can correct me, but I don’t think snow is considered measurable unless you have 0.10”, but that’s still a low bar. By no means is anyone thrilled with 0.10” but seeing 50% of the state with “measurable” snow by Christmas hasn’t happened since 2018 and with the BN temps it’s at least has been wintry.

25.7 currently which is also our low. There are a wide range of temps across NC this morning and we are running 4-5 degrees colder than RDU

Unfortunately the Aleutian ridge doesn’t really disappear it just retrogrades west moving the MW high axis just west enough for our -NAO, a fickle look with raging -PNA but at least some positivity. Given base state with pacific id be worried this would remain a progressive pattern and any cold shot/winter weather opportunity would be limited in duration and thus somewhat unlikely even if we end up cold around new years.

Some pretty positive changes on ensembles overnight regarding NAO tanking after Christmas just before new years.

30.5 after a pleasant high of 52

Southern is an OK forum, I post occasionally, but I cannot stand the look and feel of the site. It’s brutal to me. There are good posters there and a lot of folks who post in both but I too wish we could get some back who’ve left here. It’s quite the spectacle to go over there if Raleigh is getting screwed by a storm. If you think the Raleigh folks here are bad it’s even worse there. They have a lot of Charlotte posters too which I appreciate as someone who lived there for a long time after college

Until the pacific relaxes this looks like shut the blinds for winter weather for a long time. Models showing that extreme negative PNA look now with what they’re spitting out. Just a ripping flow too, drought areas likely to get much worse. Canada is still very cold and stays cold so there might be hope down the road. December likely to finish BN for most and most of NC has measurable snow already so no shutout. Might be time to throw your middle finger up at the pacific I’m sure it’ll pay attention and listen

The big pond at my farm in Franklin county has completely frozen over. It catches a lot of sunlight and doesn’t typically freeze solid but maybe once or twice a year. Low sun angle and no wind Monday morning likely contributed but this is the first time it’s frozen in December since 2018. Farm bottomed out at 22 last night and 12.6 Monday morning. High only reached 32 there yesterday. Pretty good start to winter regardless of the upcoming pattern reset

Looks pretty set that through around new years the east is going to be NN to AN and the only source of cold would be a sneaky high building in from New England (would get us cold enough so that people laugh at those calling for a torch but not actually provide winter weather shots). NAO now looks to stay slightly negative or neutral, so not much of a factor. PNA is going to stay deeply negative. I hope this is a reset and not a new base state for this winter. This would require an active STJ and with the pacific raging that isn’t going to happen. I get it with NAO going neutral to slightly negative and ridge building over the Midwest, so we’ll have back door fronts and wedge opportunities, but there isn’t any moisture. Dry and near normal through new years would be the best forecast call for the region. Probably a few AN days thrown in

Low of 25.0 actually occurred before midnight, then temps rose to 31.7 before dropping in the last hour to 29.9. Clouds and wind likely contributed to the temp spikes through the night as evidenced by RDU observations