NorthHillsWx

And most of that EURO rain in NC comes from the front on Friday which is a serious outlier in modeling. So there is a good chance it ends up like the rain-less GFS

I dont know if Ive ever seen an ensemble that dry for that long. GFS is practically rainless across the SE for the entire run. Where is our Nino STJ? We got very lucky to get the tropical system, most all the region got at least 1" of rain especially worst drought areas

Good luck figuring out Simon's track. If you haven't, please check out today's model guidance for the system...

Now 11 confirmed tornadoes on Sunday in NC from Isaias, making it the second largest tornado outbreak from a tropical system in the states history. First place? Also Isaias (12) from 2020… Surveys are still ongoing so there’s a chance that number increases Also, believe this moves the event into the top 6 single day largest tornado outbreaks in the states history. All this with a level 2 (slight) risk. With all the recent fails during level 3 and 4 risk days it is almost fitting to set tornado records on a slight risk day.

Now 11 confirmed tornadoes in NC from Sunday making it the second most ever in the state from a tropical system. The first place storm? Isaias in 2020….

Duplin County NC and Newberry County SC. Fayetteville was assigned preliminary rating of EF1.

19 confirmed tornadoes so far. 2 EF2s

Unfortunately for those looking for first frosts outside the mountains temps have trended a lot warmer this weekend as the cold source keeps getting pushed east. Still going to be great fall weather after *yet another* week of summer

Was a frisky day here. We excel at slight risk days and then do nothing on moderate or high risk days. Most warned storms produced I think there were at least 9 separate tornadoes in the state today

Picked up 1.32” from the line so 1.44” storm total. I’ll take it

Might be a double digit TOR day for NC but thankfully most are brief though the PDS one was obviously concerning

Storm looks to be cycling SW of louisburg

There have been at least 4 different confirmed tornadoes in NC so far

Lifted but man that was not a good look for the south side of rolesville that was a legit debris ball

PDS now