Stevo6899

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 There's many different ways to rate a storm. In terms of rates, the best rates we've actually seen here in recent years we're on February 4th, 2021 when we saw that in the same band come through and give us nearly 3" in one hour, but the event itself only lasted 3 hours and dropped 4.2". Then of course, a few weeks after that we had an 11" snow storm on the 15th and 16th but it came over the course of 2 days and was a bit drawn out. Last Winter, the much maligned February 2nd and 3rd event came in 2 waves, a very underperforming 6" with wave 1 and 3" with wave 2. Then a few weeks after that we had another storm drop nearly 7". 

 So we've had several different good events but each of them has their own thing to pick apart. With this event, I'd have to say the ratios would be what I pick at but it will be remembered for the consistency of the models and several hours of HEAVY snowfall!

Yea long story short, again the radar as a whole for the east side, is as good as it gets as far as rates, coverage etc. This looks to last atleast 4 hours which doesnt happen very often.I've seen these bands end up to our nw so many times over the years with lows taking this path, it's just nice to see it happen for the east side, mostly macomb. Alot of my friends in the Shelby twp area are reporting power outages, so I think the heavy nature of it may be causing issues.

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's beautiful out. Obviously I would have liked better ratios but that was completely expected with this storm.  Next several hours should be fun

I dont think ive seen a sexier radar for the east side. If the low closes off and slows down just a lil, could be double digits

Short term models were spot on with this yesterday.

Nice banding in west MI out by grand rapids, definitly more north than modeled. They could see as much as the east side. The rates later are gonna be pretty neat with it coming in the daytime.

3 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

I gotta drive to Howell for my work just for them to send us all home by 9am looking forward to this one!

Nice banding already over the area. Dtx upgraded a few to warnings which was warranted, but still surprised and unlike them to be prepared for once. Gonna rip for 6 or so hours later. Wish I was home for it but told myself it's gotta be a foot for me to hop on a plane and leave paradise. Y'all enjoy it, might be the only decent event of the winter. Definitely the first one in years.

12 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

OFC. Ordered up by the secret magnet keeper himself

DTX

After careful deliberation, have opted to transition the Winter
Storm Watch into the Winter Storm Warning for the 3 counties in far
southeast Michigan. The highest accumulations seem most likely
nearer the MI/IN/OH state line, but the trajectory of the system
also puts downriver locations such as Wyandotte into a favorable
zone for a slightly extended period of moderate to heavy snowfall. A
Winter Weather Advisory will be issued on north into the I-69
corridor angling northeast into the Thumb where some lake
enhancement will also come into play late in the day Wednesday.

Rap/hhr steady with bringing the high totals to atleast m59.

2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Normally a $$ call but Downriver has had the hot hand the past 2 seasons so there's that arguing against

True but this is the first respectable low pressure we've had in years take this track and not get sheared out by the time it gets to us. I could be wrong but I think we finally see the further nw bands than modeled.

2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Then issues an updated snowfall map with 6 inch line further north than before, lol. 

A rare nice-to-have for a sig S. Stream system is zero "other p-types" in my hourly at DTW. 

3rd bonus, lower DP's preserved a fair amount of patchy snow despite 40F and sun all damned day! 

Per usual they'll issue warnings for macomb/oakland after 6 inches of snow is on the ground.

23 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Seems like they may have initialized the low even 1-2mb weaker than it is now. So maybe possibly it could end up further nw if it ends up stronger. 

Yea I wouldn't be surprised to see the dry slot sneak into se mi. My early guess is what I've thought all along. Novi out to Jackson gonna jackpot, while NE/nw Ohio gets screwed over. Also areas to the east forecasted to get more, will end up with less.

Hhr/rap both in the stronger/nw camp and looks good for detroit. Grain of salt I suppose looking at those past 12 hrs.

22 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Before things get bad here, I would suggest stopping in at Ventura's Mexican restaurant.  Welcome to T-Town!

https://venturasmexicanrestaurant.com/ 

I'd prefer Tony packos.

Guess it's almost time to see if we can awaken the nw last min trick for the first time in awhile. 

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

This really could have been a special storm with just a bit less confluence over Ontario/Quebec.

Oh well...

I think without the confluence, this thing prob tracks through west Michigan so I guess it's atleast giving us the chance at a decent snowstorm. Still not big enough for me to hop on a plane for and fly home. There hasn't been one worthy storm the past 4 years to get me to fly home. Sigh...

16 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Nobody in Michigan is getting more then 4 or 5 inches. This is a midwest low moisture storm, classic poor performer.

A man called jonger (otto).

9 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

LOL, Watches expanded S in Ohio. Which office is winning that battle??

Dtx sneakily issuing watches for the city but leaves out macomb. Macomb thanks them cause areas that see less headlines, always end up with more.

1 minute ago, KokomoWX said:

I'll meet you in the banter thread on Thursday when we can talk about the ways we got screwed on this one too.  Warm air, dry slot, miss south, miss north...

Pingers

Dtx never fails to find the dry slot, and nam been saying it's maybe coming.

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Total wild card at this point. One thing to keep in mind If we get a good burst and good dendrites it may not matter. Yesterdays snowfall, with temps of 30F-33F the entire time but very good dendrites/rates early on, produced 3.7" snow here on 0.23" liquid. On December 23, we had 2.4" of snow on 0.30" liquid with shredded flakes and temps near 0F. 

As of now, my guess would be that the banding sets up west, say coldwater/Jackson/Howell, per usual wit this kinda track near toledo or just east of there.

Either way it's fun to have something to atleast track.

6 minutes ago, Baum said:

is it me or does the 12Z NAM have the golden track for Chicago?

The differences at Hour 57 between the nam and rgem are lol worthy.

29 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Looks like we've got a little standoff between Northern IN and Cleveland with CLE saying IWX is overhyping it. I'll be honest I'm a little more conservative than most when it comes to snowfall totals but sheesh when models verbatim are showing 6-8" at Hour 66-72 going against a watch is banking heavily on a NW trend towards the GFS. 

 

Meanwhile dtx doesn't even involve itself in the standoff. They just stand in the corner laughing cause they know they not issuing warnings regardless.

Interesting track and evolution on the 12z nam. Gets it down to 998, and closes off, which would setup banding somewhere in MI. I wonder why it doesn't keep tracking north and instead moves east? Confluence to the north?

Curious if dtw will issue watches. The low looks to close off but not much precip in the deformation band once the low gets east of Detroit. Curious to see how this one evolves. Like many have stated, models struggle with phasing interactions. 

2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Thinking around 2" here. It "just" covered grass blades as the heavier stuff was ending, and it's been a melt-fest from the ground warmth since. Still a very picturesque and beautiful day with the trees covered. Like an early December system, but 6 wks tardy. 

It is pretty wild to hear about it melting on contact due to the warm ground in the middle of the winter. Warm muggy and 85 down here in naples today.

1 hour ago, Chicago WX said:

Figures, the 6z EPS losing the left leaners. No huge change overall, but maybe a slight tick to the east on the mean versus the 0z run. I guess I'm grasping at straws a bit, trying to turn what looks like a 1-3" event into 3-5" in my hood. Still, hoping we can get a good hit for the people in southern/central IL into Indiana and Ohio. 

Meanwhile gfs now tracks it almost over detroit. Pretty impressive system

Pretty decent banding has setup in detroit area points west to GRR. I see it spreads all the way down to Columbus and east dayton. Someone may reach a half a foot.

54 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Gfs came around

6zrgem also looks similar, strengthening as it heads NE. That's key here and the difference between an 8-12 and 3-6. If it weakens as it head NE, it'll transfer alot quicker

5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Every legit snowstorm west of us this winter has shown the same weaker outlook and then trended upwards closer in to game time. Be surprised if this throws that trend out a window.

I dunno about that. While msp has had a good winter and this most recent storm delivered for NE, most of the systems this winter have been pretty weak and trended downward. This one, while a long ways to go, is trending in the weaker direction.