ORH_wxman

I don't think there is a worse feeling than seeing a forecast of big snow during a time where you know that forecast will shut down rush hour bust on the low side as to being insignificant. What a terrible feeling that 2/10/10 bust was. I know you felt it worse than I did probably since you actually were talking to the governor. But that is also what I loved about the 2./23-24/10 storm....both of us (you were on that forecast desk right before that storm) got right back on the horse and predicted big snow in the hills of ORH county and western MA while the TV guys were ridiculously gun shy. We got redemption pretty quickly because I think we were the best at not letting the last failure affect our judgement. The TV guys got egg on their face again that storm while we didn't. BOX had a very solid forecast for that storm while TV had a terrible one. And I went balls to the wall too. Again, it was funny, ironically the Union, CT guy was the one giving me the most sh*t before the storm on my forecast even though I was lower down there with 5-9". The N ORH county guys were mostly "WTF? ok, if you say so, we'll get the plow calivary ready." But they all still kind of asked me what I was smoking in one way or the other...and this is coming right off that horrific 2/10/10 bust so my credibility was diminished.

Ironically, I actually got the most sh*t from the Union, CT guy in the Feb 23-24, 2010 even though I forecasted less down there. I was 5-9" there but the TV people were so low in N CT...they were mostly 1-3" and maybe some 2-4" forecasts. Union got 6.5" out of that so the 5-9 worked out. But they were actually worried about not plowing in that region. I got the most kudos though from the northern towns after the event where 17" fell when 3-6" was predicted by TV. It was a nice feeling after I got effing railed during the Feb 10, 2010 event. Worst forecast I've ever seen from both models and actual forecast outlets including me for a 6-12 hour forecast.

I dunno why I said Norwood...I meant Needham, lol.

12/9/05 is still probably my best forecast only because I had a boss back then....where he questioned my forecast and a lot of people were counting on that forecast. I went 6-10 with 12"+ lollis and it ended up being conservative. I had upped it from 4-7". My 2nd best forecast is def Feb 23-24, 2010 with the TV guys forecasting about 25% of what I was and busted TOO LOW. 8-13" was too low for ORH and northern towns where Princeton got 17.5". ORH was ok with around 11" but all the northern towns were over 13". TV was forecasting 2-4 or 3-6 with one station going 5-10" but it was constricted to extreme N ORH county near Winchendon, Ashburnham, and Gardner.

I briefly lived near the radio towers in Newton, MA for about 3 months (i think the towers are officially in Norwood and owned by channel 5 WCVB) but I always will remember that storm as the "Radio tower storm" in my head because you told me how close you were to there and how there was almost non-stop thunder snow for a 30 minute period which matches the obs that were in the eastern threads back in their early days. But I know you love to rub those storms in to me as a good prescription to the Feb 23-24, 2010 storm where you were dying to get some decent snow. Even on a lesser extent, the Feb 22-23, 2007 screwjob you got in that norlun. You get me back with 12/9/05 and especially 2/5/01.

Ekster only loves that storm because he was in Springfield, MA (or near them) and I was boned in ITH. If we were both at our respective hometowns at the time, he wouldn't even mention it. But he also got lucky too being in Norwood, MA near the Newton/Wellesley border in 12/9/05...about the best spot possible to see 5 inches per hour for like 90-120 minutes along with constant thunder snow for that time too. Talk about a horseshoe up yer azz for visiting SNE on storm dates.

I agree that was sick. ORH went from nothing to +SN in one hour and then barely had any -SN to end. They had 12 consecutive hours of +SN.

Hey I like that storm...I was just pissed at being in Ithaca for it, lol. But ORH got 18.5" out of it...what a total tease that was in ITH though. We were forecasted to get 4-8" by BGM that day and we got 0.5" in the form of about 2 mi vis SN- at 31F for about 4 hours...it wasn't cold. BGM upgraded Broome county (their own county in BGM) to a WSW partway through it and they finished with like 3"...it was the worst upgrade I ever saw in the middle of an event. lol.

I'm not sure how much upslope was in that storm...IIRC the winds were pretty light, but there might have been a little bit of upslope. Most the differences in accumulation were probably due to elevation because the boundary layer was so marginal. There was also a massive cutoff in qpf just N of ORH. I remember driving up through Holden and by the time I got just 5-7 miles north, the snowfall was like half of what I had.

Yeah that one was pretty funny. It was right after he said it would trend into a huge hit there on that sick 18z NAM run a couple days before.

What a tease 2009-2010 was...it ended near average, but it could have been so much better. Total screw job in the configuration of the blocking. Not predictable more then 2 days out.

His meltdown was right after I posted these pics: While he was 35F and raining.

lol, what a meltdown he had. It was kind of funnyt hough seeing him get almost all rain when he thought he would get plastered with wet snow.

Lol....Kevin on Jan 18th, 2010:

Yeah and just west of them got like 26", lol. I am currently getting to Kevin's monster meltdown during the MLK 2010 event as I proceed through that winter. Some hilarious posts looking back on it. I got completely f**ked in the December 2009 storm. I was lucky to pull of just under 8" as that one heavy band got to me but actually didn't reach the airport and their more western longitude. But just SE of me by about 10 miles had 14"....terrible storm.

Ray's meltdown in that Dec 2009 thread was epic.

Agreed, he got totally boned because the cutoff was basically the pike for heavy precip...it got slightly north of the pike back where I am...I had 9.8" but about 10 miles north of me had 5". Super tight gradient. I found a post where you were happy to be in Attlehole, lol: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/216240-sne-obsdiscussion-thread/page__view__findpost__p__4355283 "It's currently snowing as hard as it has all night...I'm loving how the stuff is getting enhanced over the coastal front as it pushes NNW. I've been waiting over 3 years for this setup... "

The Jan 2-3, 2006 would have been another good one for Ekster to tie the noose in Attleboro looking at the NW RI totals...but at least Attlehole got 4" in that rather than almost nothing.

Yes, very marginal setup on a coastal that was getting squashed a bit to the south:

Yeah the elevation gradient was sick in that storm...ma_blizzard and weatherMA who live probably 5-7 miles by the way the crow flies SE of me but between 400-500 feet had like 4" of slop while I had 11.5" of paste on top of winter hill at over 900 feet. You said this in that thread: I'm 50/50 rain snow right now at 34.9F. Golfball sized slush balls. It's trying to cool real hard but doesn't seem to be doing so at a fast enough rate. The boundary layer wet bulb temps have been a killer today and tonight. The only way you're really gonna cool down the boundary layer now is through melting...which is occurring but I'm not sure if it'll be enough for a long enough period of time to cover the ground. There's another intense blob near fall river heading my way...but again it's very transitory. Lol...golfball sized slushballs is my favorite line.

That was the wettest snow of over 10" I had seen probably since April 1997...though January 2-3, 2006 was close. We were right around the 10" mark and that stuff was complete mashed potatoes. Maybe I'm missing one in there, but I don't think so. Obviously December 1996 was a plaster bomb too.

Here was your initial post while still at home: http://www.easternus...ost__p__4699542 That stuff was moving NW/NNW...just a firehose off the Atlantic.

Peaked as forecaster? Hopefully not, lol.