ORH_wxman

Euro is def a bit east of the 18z nam. I think the nam is probably too far west. It is quite a bit further west than even the rap only 12 hours out. It doesn't make a huge difference for most of us in here but the western fringes it might.

Yeah it's not normal to see this on a 24 hour forecast...esp with good models like the RGEM. I can understand the GFS being junk in these large storms because it usually is, but seeing other guidance further east is a head scratcher. Euro did tick east just a shade though this run...so we'll see how we look over the next 12 hours.

Its probably about 2 feet...but there's really no point to over-analyzing the run verbatim. We don't know where the best mesoscale bands will set up. We're either going to get a ton of snow or an obscene amount of snow.

Just under 2" of qpf this run...I think ORH is in a good spot. Might even be 2" on the dot.

Yes they do.

Jack is SE MA with 3"+ of qpf on the Euro....but most of E MA is over 2" with another 2"+ area from CT down into the eastern half of LI.

Euro is def northeast of the 00z run...it still backs the deform pretty far west though...but there's no doubt the capture is a bit northeast....which is actually better for people in NNE too.

Wow, 6h QPF over E MA is over 1" between 18-24 hours.

Euro looks a bit east through 24h.

As good a spot as any without going another hour or more to SE MA Plymouth county.

Me too. I think they will be the jackpot too. My gut says those totals will be higher than the deform jack. Mostly because aside from the obscene firehose they get and some OES assistance, the snow there may go pretty strong until late Tuesday night.

RPM did this to an extent right before the Feb 2013 blizzard too...it was putting like Foxboro down to Taunton in the deformation snows and spitting out like 40"+....when it reality that banding ended up out west in CT and central MA.

I do not envy the forecast in that area...pretty tough.

I think it is going to fall short of a storm like Feb '78 and probably even Feb 2013. But I think it will probably be in the top 10...you are correct that it is very hard to really pin down the magnitude of these events until it's usually already well underway. But just comparing the model progs from this one to Feb '13, I think it falls just a shade short. That said, there are certain areas that will get more than theydid in that storm, but I think the widespread coverage of 24"+ will be less in this storm than that one.

He already landed in Logan...he texted me on how pumped he was that he made it.

I wouldnt be that worried in the CT River Valley...I might be a bit concerned from Mitch's area in the western Berks down to interior SE NY and maybe far NW CT...that's kind of a wildcard. I probably would be less concerned if the RGEM didn't come in as far east as it did. It's not a crappy model in coastals like the GFS often can be.

Yeah I think BOS will be fine..."fine" in terms of I don't think they will be a local minimum. Everyone is going to do fine in this storm from an absolute standpoint.

Yeah that area near PYM-Bridgewater-GHG triangle could be a sneaky monster total...everyone is focusing on the deform band, but that area is gonna get firehosed and get CF enhancement too.

I'd feel pretty good on the south shore right now...they will avoid any screwzones I think.

GFS is my least favorite model in coastal systems....but the RGEM being east would be giving me a lot of pause if I forecasting in the ALB CWA.

It's the model center that is hurting the most. The board can handle probably 4000 or 5000 users on if they are just browsing. The system was just rebooted, so hopefully we'll be fine from here on out...though I wouldn't be surprised if all the crazy refreshes in the model center when the Euro comes out slows it down for a time.

Eastern areas avoid the 500-600mb dryslot on the RGEM...NAM dryslots back to like the CT River...even to ORH at 700mb, nevermind like 500-600mb.

Pretty big difference between NAM and RGEM...RGEM is east for sure

Nam looked a little west of the euro but were talking like 20 miles. It's within the model error.

They have huge ratios sometimes. They seem inflated.