ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Incremental improvement on GFS as redevelopment is further southwest but it is still ka-ka for most of New England. Powderfreak to tamarack score a bit though.
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84h NAM does look interesting. But it's the 84h NAM.
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Wow I had thought the cras was dead for years...guess it's fitting that zombie finally got slayed on Halloween.
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That was the model everyone would look to if a storm was hitting Bermuda. The cras would have a KU over ACK with about 5 inches of qpf. Such a terrible model for synoptic winter storms. If my memory serves correctly, I believe it was meant for convection....it used a ton of satellite data input....far more than typical NWP guidance.
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It's been pretty good so far this season but it barfed all over itself on the 12/18 event inside of 72 hours. Plus, back in the day the GFS was so bad with coastals, you could almost ignore it (even nowadays on legit KU-Esque coastals it still has problems imho...though we haven't gotten to test the new core yet...we haven't had a true legit one since March 2018). But GFS was pretty good with SWFE so when you had Euro/GFS agreement at 84-96h I remember you could lock it in...ala 12/13/07 I recall.
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I remember those maps. I used to check that nogaps back in the day circa 2005-2010ish...it had a very consistent SE bias back then so it was worth checking to see if it was coming NW. It would sometimes be a harbinger of a NW trend if you got two runs in a row like that. But nowdays I feel like it's a dartboard...
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Yeah I do use TT. Admittedly though mostly for the HRRR and 3km NAM. Guess I just never noticed the navgem option since I don't usually scroll the global model tab. Check your PM
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Where the heck do you even find the nogaps (errr navgem) these days? I used to peak on the ewall site because it was there and one click away...but it stopped loading on that site sometime before winter started. I didn't bother actively seeking it out since then.
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Lol. Obviously theres a gradient and it tapers off south. So yeah, there would prob be a few inches. But the best would be north. My gut still says it trends north again.
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It's definitely less favorable the further south you go.
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EPS looks pretty good for the pike region up into CNE/NNE. Definitely potential for 6 hours of heavy snow at the end wth that look. There's just not a lot of wiggle room down on the southern end of that range.
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Honestly, I'd prob keep hopes to like 1-3" if you are south of, say, a Chris in Greenfield to Hubbdave to Ray line...if we get a trend better, then you'll be pleasantly surprised. But this still has all sorts of problems for siggy snow in SNE. It could even go wrong pretty easily for CNE too.
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Yeah sort of..it had a much stronger secondary with a way better CCB than the 00z run, but it just redeveloped a bit further north, so in that sense the primary was a pain in the azz in hanging tough longer, but once it ceded to the secondary, it did so much more dynamically than 00z. Obviously if the redevelopment happens later than it doesn't really help southern areas.
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That run would have hit Kevin's area hard and prob NE CT. I definitely want to see another tick south. We don't want that primary shortwave being too dominant. I have a feeling that it will be though...but even with that said, we could pick up an inch or two on the back end.
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Jeez...GGEM is so far south it actually misses most of New England. A bit of light snow for SNE and nothing for NNE.
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Yeah trended south. Still pretty hideous verbatim outside of powderfreak to Rangeley axis but hopefully a few more ticks.
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NAM would prob be pretty interesting for SNE too if it went out further. Def want to see another south bump on the 12z suite for snow chances.
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This weekend is congrats powderfreak. We can maybe get a couple down here. I actually don't hate the 1/8 threat....I think op euro is too amped.
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I'm pretty skeptical of this weekend. At least in terms of siggy snow. Need a lot of things to go right. But an inch or two seems doable. Hopefully those 00z runs were onto something.
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OP Euro looks warm but the EPS and other guidance is actually offshore with that threat.
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Yes....this doesn't give us anything frozen on the front end...just a rain in the 30s....but if we tick it a bit colder then it could start to get interesting. But yeah, you'd prob keep the sleet pack intact and then grab an inch or two of snow on top of that at the end in a solution like the 12z Euro.
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That would actually be pretty bad timing on this run....that's around when it flips to snow at BOS. Obviously this could change quite a bit...it already has in the span of a couple runs.
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Much stronger scooter streak shortwave out ahead of the main trough. It's flattening the flow and it causes the main energy to get shoved south more...so with that lagging energy at the base of the trough, it allows a flip to snow in addition to the more eastward track.
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Pretty big changes on the 12z Euro for this weekend....we never warm sector...and it could get interesting on the back end. Out to 108, so we'll see what the next few panels bring.
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Airmass is definitely garbage....no arguing that. But the further east it tracks, the more likely we can grab something on the tail end with the upper level energy....we want to keep the baroclinic zone south enough to make that a little bit more organized. The stronger cut scenarios rip the BZ up into canada, so it becomes hard to squeeze out anything on the back side.
