ORH_wxman

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I actually don't have problem with it.  Blues have odd behaviors - difficult to pin point that sort of thing. It's probably more of an homage to general possibility ...less 'where' exactly that happens. In fact, I can imagine the cackles and ridicule over the NAM this and that ... all the while missing that point.

We're still technically reeling off that pretty crazy late season -EPO last week. It's modulated(ing) positive, but the loading takes time to extinguish - at this time of year, these indexes sometimes reflect more so in the mid level thermal complexion. If we look at that 850s mb, it doens't appear like there's warm problem to this thing being a kind of red flag -

Although heh... anyone that things this week's been warm at the surface is probably selling snow to Eskimo.  

I'm just saying ... that's why spring blue bombs happen. 

Yeah it's not an isothermal look on the NAM....it's a decent lapse rate from the surface to 850. IF you actually verify that, then latent cooling is going to take the sfc to near-freezing fairly easily if you have any sort of heavy rates.

Well the NAM is one way to get a blue bomb.

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Lol beefed up and came west at 9z .. 

Still needs a lot of work....you want to see legit rates in this thermal profile. There's a scenario where the low pressure develops along the front and gives us decent precip on Friday in the CCB, but it remains mostly rain because it steady light/moderate precip and not good rates.

06z NAM kind of showed this...decent precip in the CCB but mostly rain with just some sloppy snow over the hills...maybe an inch or two in a scenario like that but also could just be white rain.

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Big jump NW on EPS. But again it's borderline.

Yeah that was a huge shift from even 06z.

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... 2018+ 6 more year's worth of CC = glop bombs falling off of tree limbs

It's also 2.5 weeks deeper into March than the Mar 2018 big dog which was Mar 12-13. That matters a lot climatologically.

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

'idv'  ?

Individual i took it as

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of the guidance started to get milder after the first week of April.

EPS looked decently mild by 4/9.....but then again, the EPS has been utterly horrific this cold season, so taken with a grain of salt for now.

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder why the west PAC warm pool only prohibits entry into phase 8-1 during the cold season....perhaps as the relatively cooler ambient waters begin to warm (cool in the fall) it loses (gains) pervasiveness throught the Hemisphere?

The other explanation is that the warmer waters didn't really have as much to do with it as hypothesized. Might be some other important factor or factors.

Ukie has the snow on Friday too in SNE.

Looks pretty marginal in the lowest levels in the CP, but if guidance is going to try and spit out good hourly rates, then it will be worth watching. Certainly over the interior hills it is becoming a threat. The pattern we were hoping for in February now looks to be happening in late March and early April.

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

08-09 was excellent here. I’d cut my left one off for that again. 

I think we only cracked freezing twice in January 2009....sneaky frigid month. Never hit 40F. Throw in 25" of snow from multiple events (in addition to the late December snows) and it was quite a stretch. Pack got pretty deep but not like 2011, 2013, or 2015 levels.

Still iced up this morning on winter hill in ORH. There’s basically zero ice about 300 feet lower. 
 

Don’t think the dewpoint drain is quite there for a huge ice storm, but it’s getting mildly interesting with already over a quarter inch of glaze on winter hill in ORH. 
 

Still glazed on winter hill. Temp has actually ticked down a few tenths the last hour to 31.4F from a high of 32. 
 

Still a lot to glazing on winter hill. Temp 31.5F. Prob breaking even with sun angle right now but def accretion between about 8am and noon. 
 

Pretty solid icing on winter hill right now. 
 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a frustrating pattern. Instead of developing a nice low to the south, this whole thing just presses SE and kicks it OTS. This effing season can end now. 

Yeah this was super close to being a nuke....but just enough northern stream nuances to screw it up again.

14 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Still raining here come on over.

Mixing with snow here now with a little elevation in NW Holliston. Big catpaw type mangled flakes clearly visible in the spotlight out back when there was nothing about 5-10 min ago. 
 

Too bad it isn’t going to last a few more hours. We would’ve pulled some accumulation. It’ll prob end just as it changes over completely. 

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Maybe we could pull that off with obscene mins and rain lol. This whole disco is about max temps and nice weather it seems.

One side talks daily means, the other talks max temps.  Repeat daily.

Sensible wx is what most people care about at the end of the day. It’s like how in mid-winter, you can have a day where ORH is like 30/24 with spitting light snow. That day maybe ends up as +3. But nobody normal would actually consider that an above normal temp day. Esp since it was all driven by the min temps. 
 

It’s even worse imho in early spring like right now. You can have a 42/37 day with drizzle which is positive departures but nobody gives a fook that the low was 37 instead of 28. They consider that cold and miserable. 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean it's like above normal or below normal ...neither matters and the engagement/conjecture over it all could not be any more futile when considering at this time of year, they are both a creepy scene in Shawshank Redemption with this New England prison we call spring -

unless the above normal is like +38 F or something. ha

I love how in the movie, Morgan Freeman’s character, “Red”, is narrating how May is “one fine month to be outdoors in New England”. 
 

Every time I’ve seen that in the past couple decades, I always tell myself, “good thing they were too early to experience May 2005”. 

42 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..gee thanks for granting your permission, it means so much to me!! lol

Honestly, stay out of the thread if you aren’t going to contribute anything of substance and just continue to troll. I’ll help you out if you don’t want to do it voluntarily. 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

She not gonna let us out. Blocky and stormy times…
 

This has actually been telegraphed pretty well. Second week of March and beyond kept showing up as blocky. Unfortunately there’s not a ton of cold on that look so we prob gets lots of cold rain or slop threats. But a real system wouldn’t surprise me either if you get everything to line up. 

Pretty strong sig on the GEFS for 8 days out. EPS has a pretty good sig too but it’s a little delayed and slightly different evolution. The GEFS look is definitely more likely to be snow. 

The warmup looks nice. Good high pressure at times should make for some great days. 
 

Pattern looks like dogshit though once we get into the second week of March. Very cutoff-y looking. 

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We've had some weird cold shots in these recent Mays, people.  I've seen and/or heard of snow being reported across multiple Mays since the year 2000, waay vastly more often than I ever did growing up in the 1970s and 1980s.

That's not gaslight-able otherwise.

Yeah we’ve had a lot of May cold snaps (some with snow) that were breaking records while months like June/July can’t buy a cold record….well, maybe mid June onward. We had some nasty early June record low-maximum type days especially in the 2000-2015 range, not quite as much recently. 

Conversly, the October snow has been increased frequency since 2000. I’m not sure if these are just coincidence or something else because those months have warmed in the means, but those individual cold episodes on a sub-monthly level have increased in frequency. 

35 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

It's hard to judge springs off just temps too. Before full leaf out we can still pull some better rad nights. In SNH, we could pull 70/34 on May 1 and it's solidly BN, but real nice during the day. Have to use a combo of temps and precip to get the full picture 

Yeah that is true. You can occasionally have a really nice spring that was still normal or chilly in the mean temps, but lots of sun. Though often the precip will drive down departures in the spring. Esp the later into spring we get….clouds and precip blocking out a May sun angle really helps keep temps down. 
 

If you look at the 2000-2009 composite, it was very wet in those springs which probably helped drive the departures down. In the past decade, our springs have run significantly drier than that 2000s decade.