ORH_wxman

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

UK did

Yeah both GGEM and Ukie were the flattest in that one. Ukie may have been a touch flatter but both were ugly. 

Canadian bombs the primary over southern Lake Michigan. SNE will have a shot if that happens. 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... Kevin was mentioning this earlier this morning

 

  

I honestly didn’t read that far back. Was busy with work. 
 

But it’s been a theme I’ve noticed since last night’s runs. We already knew a primary into Huron was bad for snow south of NNE but we were kind of hoping it would be over CLE instead previously…but that isn’t happening…however, an alternative version of getting more snow in SNE (or at least down into the SNE/CNE gray area) is to have the primary nuke out much further west over Lake Michigan. 

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Some of the 12z GEFS. Members are wild

Still pretty much a non-event for SNE in the mean though. Too many eastern Michigan/Lake Huron primaries which causes the secondary to rip up through interior SNE. 

The colder solutions recently have had the primary maxing out over Lake Michigan or far western Michigan instead of the thumb of Michigan or Lake Huron. That is enough to make a difference and allow the coastal to consolidate a bit better without primary interference. 
 

Note that the 12z NAM was a “thumb of Michigan/Lake Huron” solution unlike the RGEM/GFS

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a shame that ULL is such a beast in the MW.

 

The other thing is convection. There is some severe wx progged. Not sure how the globals will handle that..but it's part of the reason why the NAM warm tongue may not be so far fetched...even if off a little.

Hopefully the progged convection performs about as well as the 2/13 event. 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z GFS looks better for CNE and NNE. 

It’s collapsing heights to the east just a bit more…and I think it’s due to the main ULL out west dropping further south initially so it gives a little more time for that PV lobe in Nova Scotia to nudge southwest and try to crash heights just enough as the main ULL out west approaches.
 

 If that trend kept up, then it would get interesting for at least northern SNE. But it’s definitely a good development for CNE since it might try to link the WCB and CCB a bit and not allow that WAA to just rip to the northeast and keep everything more disjointed and warmer. 

ICON was kind of Krafty for E and C MA and SE NH too Thursday AM. Not really biting on that yet but it wasn’t showing that previously until overnight. 
 

If you’re hoping for a longshot attempt here, the key is to get that little PV lobe over Nova Scotia to phase into the main ULL early enough to drop heights over New England and crash everything SE a bit before the western ULL wraps up the ML and LL circulation into the interior. 

06z GFS was a little colder. Actually produces a sleet bomb over interior MA. I’m still expecting mostly rain here but there’s maybe like a 1 in 5 shot it could be a bit more interesting. I’d want to see the 12z runs tick cooler again. 00z was pretty furnaced outside of the Canadian.  

8 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said:

Getting close to a non-event in my region, how farther north is this thing going? Geez

 

For what it's worth northern worcester hills still have a small shot, me and ineedsnow are probably going to track this until it's gotime, above comment nonwithstanding 

N ORH county is def still in the game for big snow, but another tick and it’s over there too (outside of maybe advisory type snows on the WAA front end). 
 

Really need to stop this trend of a massive bombing primary in N Michigan/Lake Huron. 

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah you’re right, it’s NW slopes of the Dacks into Canada.

That SFC track is Adirondacks all the way too.  Though low level jet on front side would be enough to get NH/ME foothills/Mtns.

Thats a classic track for a split here in N.VT between mid-level synoptic lift west and low level WCB lifting east.  Occluded mess.

Need to keep the primary weaker and south. But that is the opposite of the current trend. Even for NNE I think keep the upper air a little toned down is what you want…not as much as SNE needs it but there’s a happy medium. But some of these GFS runs are just wrapping this thing up so much that there’s really no chance to consolidate the WAA/CCB together. 
 

Hopefully things trend back a little but I’m not optimistic about that. 

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

That’s an Adirondacks look right there.

H7 low goes over like SLK.

Looks even more like S Canada run. Ottawa to Massena. 
 

15 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

You’re saying there’s no appetite for you and me sharing pictures of thigh deep powder posing with a stray moose on an empty ski slope?


.

Even in mid-winter the appetite would be fairly small but in early April after a terrible winter, nobody will stay and track a storm that doesn’t give good snow within 50-75 miles. We are basically one more 00z run bump north from 80-90% of the forum checking out…myself included. 

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

So from the sounds of this my last two plows could have come off and put away today? I will hold off for the next 24 hrs, maybe  mount squeegee instead lol I really thought we had something...

I’d hold off up there. Latitude will matter. But yeah, you want a tick south. N of pike crowd between pike and ASH/MHT can still get a big system if this nudges south a little but the trends haven’t been favorable the last 24 hours. 

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

If I remember correctly the storm back in February started to shift north and we thought we were out of the game in Southern New England and then a couple days before it came back down and we got 15 in of snow where I'm at. I'm not saying that's going to happen at all but you never know

It actually trended so far south it looked like all of us were gonna get skunked and then at the last second it bumped back enough to crush CT. We still got screwed up here. We got maybe 4”. 

16 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

its a latitude thing tho .. doesn't matter how far west the primary goes, as long as it doesn't go north 

Yes. The northward push of the primary is where the issues occur. A system sliding due east from Chicago to Cleveland and redeveloping E of ACY is totally fine. But when the primary rips up into Lake Huron, it’s hard to hold the midlevel structure of the storm in a manner that produces huge snows for SNE. 

Euro looks a bit warmer and north again. Almost game over for SNE but it does still hit ORH county to Berkshires decent. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Trend has been for primary hanging on around Lake Huron which is what you don’t want.

Yep. Prob gonna check out on this one soon. I’ll give it another couple cycles though since there is still some spread south/colder. But this is starting to get the feeling of an NNE elevation storm and not the more cleanly phased tempest over the benchmark up to ACK. 
 

Gonna need a shift south on subsequent cycles. 

NAM is actually sub-freezing over high terrain of SNE and 925s are between -3 and -4 so you’d get good accumulations that way. But you want to see more global models trend that cold before you consider it realistically. 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Track wise 12z nam is nice, but it needs to get much more meaty with the CCB. 

CCB prob wouldn’t get cranking for another few frames as the ULL is still back west. It’s quite cold though so NAM would prob work in a lot of spots even if 10 to 1 is overdone. 

I think ideally for non-ORH hills/Berks interior SNE (and I’ll loosely define this as 495 belt from Ray right down to near Kevin on 84 NE of HFD) we want to see that primary die a little quicker instead of getting wrapped up into the thumb of Michigan. If you can can keep it more toward CLE instead then it’s balls to wall. 

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How are the 6z EPS ensembles?

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not sold on that . I’m sure there’ll br some 33-34 degree wet snow that doesn’t stick 

Yeah there will be a lot of white rain lingering as the ULL takes its time to move out but I don’t expect much of that stuff to stick. Maybe briefly in heavier snow showers. 
 

The key for siggy accums is getting into the meat of the CCB on the coastal. 

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya hoping for a trend south today but like my spot for atleast something here 

You’re still in a good spot. Maybe even down to ORH but it would feel A little better even in that area to see things tick a little south. 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro op pretty mild at 925 into srn NH. You need this thing much further south.

It was fun for a couple days. But we’re prob cooked unless we sink this back south 50-100mi

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Long duration E-NE flow into that topography… it really is the first big wall encountered by the moist Atlantic maritime air.

If mountains are rocks in a stream, when the water flows from the east into New England, the largest build-up of water is on the east side of the Apps. West of there is turbulent (windy/angry) flow.

Yeah it’s not surprising that is also where some laughable storm totals have occurred when the stars line up. Like 60”+ type totals every once in a while in that high terrain east side near Pinkham Notch.