ORH_wxman

30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m going eastern facing side of the Whites for the jackpot right now.

Phineas could get a 30 burger in this setup. 

3 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Everyone wants to keep bringing up 04/01/97 and 04/06/82, and yeah 1996-97 was a ratter until April 1st just like this season but this one just doesn't have the same dynamics as that one did, and April 1982 had a very cold airmass to work with. In terms of overall synoptics this one actually looks more similar to 03/29/70, but even that one had better dynamics to work with.

The more consolidated solutions have incredible dynamics. But something like the GFS is less intriguing until you are into high terrain of NNE. You have the low trying to escape northeast too quickly early before it finally gets tugged back. 

Disjointed crap still on 18z GFS until it gets W Maine/White mountains. Not consolidated like some other guidance. 

Go back to the pre-clown map era when you have marginal temp profile….esp under 800-1000 feet  

1. Look for 6 hourly QPF greater than 0.50”…preferably 0.75”+. The heavier the better, but 0.25 or 0.37 over 6 hours isn’t gonna cut it. That’s mostly white rain. 

2. Look at 925 temps. Typically want -2ish or colder to avoid total slop though -1 will work if youre pounding with good snow growth aloft. 
 

If you aren’t satisfying both of those criteria, then you’re looking at something significantly under 10:1 ratios. 
 

Nocturnal timing for max precip can help a bit too, but it’s less significant than the two factors above. 

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

To me it depends on rates.  12-15” of 10:1 snow maps over 36-48 hours of “periods of snow” probably verifies as 4-6 inches on the ground when it ends.

If it’s 12-15” in 12-18 hours, it’s probably closer to that 10-12” on ground.

This is why consolidation matters. Keeping the system disjointed is going to make sure there’s a much stronger elevation gradient and also just lower rates in general. Even OP Euro wasn’t quite there despite the decent CCB late in the game but the EPS was better. 

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Hopefully it doesn't end up at the glue factory.

Always a fear this winter. At least there’s pretty good agreement right now compared to other guidance plus that’s a pig NAO block that develops which should help hold the goalposts a little firmer. The GFS suite is kind of the outlier right now being more disjointed (though some of the GEFS did look like the foreign models, just not as many of them). 
 

If this was 3 weeks earlier, we’d have enough wiggle room that you can probably honk away right now. But this is gonna need to get closer before having any confidence. 

Individual EPS. You can see how slow-moving it is. There’s also still some spread with some members trying to escape the low to the northeast before it gets captured. 
 

EPS def trended better from 00z and 06z for SNE. More consolidation. I’d say that’s better for CNE too for sure. You want to avoid a disjointed system to maximize amounts.  

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I haven’t seen it yet, but it looks like it has that western eyewall look lol.

I’d like it another smidge south so that it stays more consolidated, but verbatim that would be poundtown for at least 6-8 hours I think right into eastern areas. 

That’s a hell of a CCB for eastern New England for a time. 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think in any of these solutions Ray would do well at low elevation . This one has in and up written all over it .

Latitude is going to help Ray. This isn’t an isothermal airmass. It’s fairly chilly aloft…esp further north. If we get a GFS solution then it’s a moot point but something a little more organized then it matters.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

What if it takes Worcester’s grid down and leaves you with 2” of slush?

He would absolutely have a meltdown if ORH up to Ray got croaked and he didn’t. It needs to be like dendrite/Monadnocks northward for him not to care much. 
 

But I’m still worried about the disjointed WAA and ULL that the GFS shows. That’s a pretty meh solution for  even the snowy areas. Still a decent storm but nothing close to historic like the more consolidated looks we’ve seen. Canadian is far more consolidated and organized. 

Canadian on the other hand….

2 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

I mean it is an impressive solution but still feels like its leaving a lot on the table for NNE

It’s disjointed with the WAA and the trailing ULL. These further north solutions where the WAA drives the baroclinic zone northeast cause the overall ceiling of the storm to decrease. 

NAM still really cold and south at 84h but again, really doesn’t mean anything unless the big boy models trend that way. 

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nam/Rgem not being amped at their ranges could mean more south shifts. 

Wouldn't count coastal SNE out at all

I did notice the mesos were pretty suppressed. Doesn’t mean much yet though. If they still are once we get to tomorrow night then maybe. By then though, I’d expect globals to have moved some direction. 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Who is we? CT had 12-20”

Yeah it ruined our storm up here but you guys in CT still got crushed. That was a weird one. It trended like 100 miles south inside of 36 hours. 

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

We look good here for now.. I  just hope we don't see this push further north

It’s a subtle trend but the WAA and main coastal CCB have become a little more disjointed since yesterday. So it’s actually done two things:

1. Push the threat ever so slightly north 

2. Slightly reduced the ceiling of a higher end KU type storm total max zone

These are subtle trends and could easily shift back but they could also keep shifting the way they did overnight which would lessen the impact further. 

10 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tonight and tomorrow will be pretty big for the confidence of this storm track. Typically if you’re gonna see a big move, it’s that period from 120ish to getting inside of 100 hours. 

The biggest threat zone right now is prob something like western Maine foothills (like Bridgton and lakes regions there) down through dendrite-land into Monads, N ORH hills and Berks/S VT. 

No changes. 
 

Gonna need a subtle south shift if we want to get more of SNE in the game. 

Tonight and tomorrow will be pretty big for the confidence of this storm track. Typically if you’re gonna see a big move, it’s that period from 120ish to getting inside of 100 hours. 

The biggest threat zone right now is prob something like western Maine foothills (like Bridgton and lakes regions there) down through dendrite-land into Monads, N ORH hills and Berks/S VT. 

Lows are decently clustered at 126….but then they start to spray a bit like buckshot after that. 
 

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Ukie is very tucked, sucks for most of SNE

We’d all be worried if the Ukie was jackpotting us at this range. 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Although synoptically that’s a nice look lol:

Lol…maybe if it’s still showing big snow on Saturday or easter we can take it seriously. 
 

Tamarack might not see the ground until May at this rate.

Reggie ain't biting for Friday.