Torch Tiger

94.8

Avalanches account for the greatest number of wx deaths in Alaska. We need to melt this stuff away, ASAP

Maybe, maybe not. Please don't forget those who died in Dec. 1992 (17), or 1993 superstorm (270 died, not all were winter wx related of course)...and on, and on. It's not hyperbole I guess my point is that "fun" isn't a good word for more extreme weather; exciting and "awesome" though, yeah.

"hyperbole" ha. The graph obviously does not account for the 1000+ fatalities/year, either indirectly or directly related winter driving conditions. " Weather-Related Vehicle Accidents Far More Deadly Than Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Floods By Chris Dolce February 05, 2022"

Same with winter storms. So many avoidable injuries and deaths, damage and etc. One must be heartless to yearn for such outcomes.

Impressive sky with TCU, anyway. maybe we'll get a shower

Looks good there. miss here, want to go for the ride but route 3 blows this time of day.

will there be anything left standing in Ashby?

fv3 ftw a couple days ago

Is the LI cell going to drop a tor?

what a crushing!

12z gfs is an inferno

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined can see the CIN near the south coast

Yeah that NJ cell looks nasty

Let's get that damage and destruction!

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front crossing the central Appalachians, with a lead pressure trough extending southward roughly along the Champlain/Hudson Valleys. A steady increase in the CU field is noted, as temperatures warm into the low 80s resulting in widespread 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. A gradual increase in storm development is expected over the next couple of hours, as additional heating/destabilization occurs. Updrafts will be aided by favorable speed shear, amidst moderately strong/roughly unidirectional flow with height on the southeastern side of the southwestern Quebec upper low. As such, storms will become increasingly capable of producing damaging wind gusts -- initially in a more localized manner but become more widespread with time as storm coverage increases and convection grows upscale locally into small clusters/lines. Initial WW issuance is expected within the next hour, extending from the eastern New York into New England.

wow, great stuff. 74.8 this AM

Hopefully NNE sees some interesting weather tomorrow. Not sure how it pans out SW/W NE, but the rain will be beneficial I am sure.

I was at that game, good times!

A cold front...actually more of a dewpoint front...will move eastward into this hot unstable air mass Thursday afternoon and evening. Wind fields aloft will strengthen as a weak mid-level trough moves through as well, with 30-40 kt of deep layer shear. Surface-based CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and MLCAPE of up to 1500 J/kg indicates plenty of instability. One thing lacking for severe weather will be relative lack of height falls. But model vertical motion is strong and the instability and shear should be sufficient for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms from as early as 11 AM or Noon and lasting into the mid-evening hours. The CAMs indicate potential for broken line segments with the main focus across CT and western and central MA, where updraft helicity swaths are focused. Damaging wind appears to be the primary severe threat, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in those areas. The least threat is in RI and southeast MA, where the majority of the day should be dry, but remnant showers and thunderstorms may move through late in the day or evening.

hit 95.5, gorgeous!

93.2

HRRR is basically dry south of the pike.

Seems to me threat level has been and is pretty low south of the Pike/BOS/ORH. I still think WNE and north of the pike could see some action. Like Wiz said, the main s/w is curling like N and NNE through ONT/QC instead of more east, that would have helped southern areas. With the marine taint creeping in, that will probably supress convection the more coastal southern areas (and maybe enhance it a bit further north if convection intersects)