UKWeatherGeek.

Where’s that?

The system is NW of hrrr. It overdid the wobble east. Stuck in a lighter band in NYC.

Measurement will be tricky but think most are being conservative here. Models often struggle with detail of bands, that combined with 1:11-1:12 ratios, the 12-18” estimations for metro are underdone. I’d say 16-22” is more accurate.

NYC 22.4 LGA 23.2 ISP 23.7 JFK 19.4 EWR 21.1

Do you think my flight will be ok arriving 4pm EDT Sunday? Sorry if off topic.

Euro is west by about 40 miles.

GFS00z north ICON north. Are we seeing a last minute adjustment?

ICON is 50 miles NW. That's enough for a change on the day to give 6-12" on coast. 20% chance.

We disregard the UKMet model here too.

ECM18z gives NYC 5mm precip / 9.4cm snow. E LI 24mm/34cm. Boston 34mm/47cm.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php

NAVGEM.

FYI we just had a rare Euro>GFS shift for the most recent storm in UK.

So I either fly back today or stay in the hope this is good for NYC. I'm totally bewildered. A real mixed bag, two most likeky options are a further push W 12-16" or a middleground 1-4" the latter more likely now.

Gfs at 78h is 75miles west.