tiger_deF

What a beast, cloud tops in the eyewall are still cooling and becoming more symmetrical

00z ICON shifts farther west but replaces a high out in the northern Atlantic with a trough, which is not the scenario you’d want to see for even a glancing blow. That being said there’s still a ton of variation with the upper level environment 8 days out. I thought it was an easy recurve a day ago, still the most likely scenario but worth watching for the next couple of days.

I can’t even remember the last time a tropical wave looked this good so close to Africa

If this (unlikely) track verified it would be the strongest hurricane for New England since Hurricane Carol in 1954 (71 years ago)

Now that we have a consistent long-range hit, we need to watch for windshield wiping vs serious trends in either direction. If a few runs show it hitting farther down the coast or going OTS, as long as the models keep waffling and shift in the other direction then the hope is alive

Juicy setup on the EC-AIFS

We are extremely overdue, not counting tropical storm meh-nri. Every season we have model runs showing impacts which almost inevitably whiff. I remember Erika, Lee, Isaias, even Joaquin being shown as threats that never ended up materializing. But the historical precedent is there for big hits as unlikely as they are, and the east coast is definitely more at risk this year than the past few gulf-heavy seasons.

Given the likely higher than average (though still extremely unlikely) chance of a tropical impact this season, recent interesting model runs, and the tropical clutter in the August disco, I figure it’s time to bring back the tropics megathread!

As hostile as the basin state has been for many weeks, the tropical wave at 40W sure is looking good tonight. Lower level vorticity has been increasing dramatically over the past 6 hours and the convection is some of the healthiest I’ve seen in the MDR. Will likely get sheared apart closer to the islands (and the fast background flow will make any consolidation difficult ), but it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on.

I hope it slides to the west or east if it is still predicting development, that area has been hit really hard in the past few years, Laura Delta and others have caused a lot of damage

I’m expecting the models to back on and off of development of this feature, especially given the background state, but this ICON run is an eye opener

86/77 in Arlington. Dog is already refusing to finish a full walk.

GFS has been showing development in the western Caribbean for three runs in a row, now in only 6-7 days. Will be the next place to watch. Hoping that nothing develops or that it is more of a gulf threat, since the west coast of Florida will be uniquely vulnerable

Leslie has been feeling shy, so of course once model intensities have plummeted and all eyes are off her she has decided to put on a show