tiger_deF

First big gust of this entire event

That map is to hour 18? Wow, still over a full day of goodies to come. Seeing family in Worcester and up here it’s been pithy, hoping that changes over the next 12 hours

Very aesthetically pleasing storm

Definitely looks to be intensifying at a decent clip, core looks way healthier than even a few hours ago

Lots of mesoscale models(NAM, HRDPS, RGEM, etc) have been ramping up the short term intensity of the storm +24h tonight

The fact that there's a hook and a day or more of slow movement complicates things. Some coastal, including some of our more notable storms (and tropical systems) we've gotten have been straight thumps that pas through quickly, where the main concern is shifts left and right. But here, for this system, there's huge model variation (for being a couple of days away) in the time and location of when (or if) it will make landfall all based on potential loops, stalls, and intensity.

Contentwxguy (formerly cranky) has been doing some great nowcasting for any interested https://x.com/contentwxguy?s=21

At least from my amateur perspective it spends more time over water while close to the coast and is slightly more amped up pressure and rainfall-wise despite being further south

Models are trending a good bit stronger in the short term (HRRR out 14 hours is 5mb lower than a few runs ago) but of course a little more south/west. I think to max this out, either we stop the bleeding there while maintaining intensity, or hope that it is able to maintain intensity and occlude later, and move over SNE instead of burying itself in Long Island

Now that it is semi locked in let's see if the intensity can ramp up some. If we're going to have a weekend of awful weather it should at least be interesting. A modelled 990mb is certainly a decent storm, especially with the high pressure gradient, but nothing crazy

GFS is substantially stronger and farther to the west at 48H

Give me that 975 mb ensemble member please

18z GFS pretty much looks identical to 12z so far, maybe a tad more to the west?

ICON moving a good amount East and slower to consolidate

What scenarios would increase the chances of a hybrid/warm core system? Spending more time over water? Moving north quicker rather than just rotting offshore? A more pronounced capture?