tiger_deF

She's doing her best to hang on

Dollt}"" Despite the hostile conditions, and the fact that there's likely not a coherent LLC, post-Dolly sure is trying her best

Rooting for this little guy (girl?) in the near future for sure. It’s almost certainly headed the way of the dodo but every now and then a storm is able to persist against a hostile environment. Currently she’s producing just barely enough convection to survive

After a parade of struggling invests which have failed to materialize, it looks like the Atlantic, in this anemic season, may actually be capable of producing a potentially long-tracking hurricane! 96L is not currently a threat to land, and the vast majority of models show this system recurving out to well east of the CONUS

If we get any hurricanes out of the Pineapple Express of waves coming off of Africa, potential Dolly will likely end up being a sacrificial lamb to allow them to flourish

The first tropical wave (10/10) is looking rough, but this is the first time all season that there's been a healthy looking disturbance in the eastern MDR with a good moisture pocket. Low level vorticity is starting to increase as well

This is fascinating, especially given how sleepy the global models are out to the bell-ringing date, and the documented effects of Ninos shutting down late-season development. Perhaps it suggests a brief burst of high activity during the peak of the season?

Come to papa

I’m over it. It feels like there was a better chance of getting lightning from one of the blizzards last winter out east than this pithy severe season. Bring on the Fall!

Haven’t seen a more dismal (overall) background state for tropical activity since I was in middle school. MDR and Caribbean SST anomalies are the coolest they’ve been in years, subtropics are scorching, monstrous El Niño peaking intensity near late season.

Let’s get a Pineapple Express of cutters dropping 2-5” (Wes Fri Sat) then a bigger coastal or two in the next few weeks. Pattern is ripe and we don’t have many weeks of winter left

Some of the best rates yet in Arlington. Half an inch on the ground after just 20 minutes of shoveling. Praying that the newly formed band over BOS stays put for a few hours.

Thinking of taking a strategic map, for BOS what’s an estimate for timing the peak of the storm? HRRR seems to think maybe in the ballpark of 8 AM?

A few miles west of the city, we barely cracked an inch an hour ago. But the pace has picked up markedly the past half hour and the wind is howling

I wasn't planning on pulling an all nighter but at this point I might as well