tiger_deF

As a red line commuter, it’s pretty stunning how badly the storm recovery has been. 25+ minute waits for most trains, constant delays, a total of two disabled trains just today. Ubers easily 2x the cost they would usually be. Another big storm would cause serious problems. Bring it on anyway

This is giving me flashbacks to Hurricane Lee and Hurricane Melissa. Models shifting away farther and farther from shore, every minor West shift a sign things would turn around and they never did. It's tough being a tropical weather weenie in New England.

Soon we'll be reduced to tracking westward movements on the JMA model

I wouldn’t. I’d be hopping up and down for that amount from a cutter, but if we aren’t getting obliterated from this kind of setup I’d almost rather it be a complete whiff.

So out of curiosity, what is the difference between a model OP and its ensembles? Does the OP run with more resolution/compute, do the ensemble parameters all vary around a distribution from the OP run?

It's encouraging that the tracks leaning to the west aren't less deep than the ones east of the benchmark. While chances might have slipped a little bit last night into today, there's still a real possibility of a big one

I see this a lot with hurricane tracking - where an EPS ensemble mean will have a fairly weak low pressure signal a week out which actually correlates to a substantial risk of formation. Since each ensemble member is seeded differently, the differences in the model outputs between each ensemble will compound frame by frame a la butterfly effect. To have a defined and visible low pressure system so (relatively) far out means that many of the ensembles are in agreement.

Phases a little too early imo - don't want all the goods getting dumped halfway to Bermuda

Found it!

Snowbands are building remarkably well in CNE and western New England - hoping to grab at least 2-3" out of this

Four across four down is absurd, over 2.5 in of QPF in eastern mass. While the ratios might be lower than this weekend's system, that would be substantially more snow.

I think a swath of eastern MA won't have any break in the snow until the last of the coastal bands move offshore

Actually the Euro, ICON, and CMC all have some version of this same storm - but vary widely on if it is offshore or over land

Spins a miller A storm out of what seems like nothing - a little offshore, but down to the 960's! Now that we got a huge moisture thump I would love a classic Nor'easter with moving drifts, howling winds, and heavy heavy snow rates

Snow has been coming down hard for the past 6 hours. Hard to tell with the drifting but in Arlington MA I'd say we have 15-17" so far. If the storm continues to print in the remaining 4-5 hours of heavier snow, and if Monday pans out, wouldn't be surprised to see 24-30"