clskinsfan

14 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

12z was a deamp though compared to the last few runs.

Which fits this winters trend very well. 

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji and the crazy part is we rarely get snow and most of it melts right away even in the middle of winter because we’re not Vermont. But every year I hear March snow sucks because “it’s hard to get snow and it melts”. As if that’s unique to March. 

I normally love March snow. But I am kind of exhausted of the southern fringe this year. Just ready for it to be over. 

40 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

This is funny.  

 

Just bring on the torch already. 

HRRR for the morning stuff:

6 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

That explains why we didn’t get the WWA. We don’t have that problem here because our horses and wagons don’t slide on snowy roads.

I think we have different parameters out here in all seriousness. And those laughing at advisories for 1/2 inch of snow, 81 was shut down out here Monday morning after a dusting from a jack knifed tractor trailer. It doesnt take much when it is this cold out. 

By the way the sun is out here. 

Flurries here NW of Winchester. So the precip shield definitely made it further north than thought.

55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. You're not wrong. I just finished the solar install for our work shed. 2400 watts of panels, 3000w inverter, and 2kw of battery storage. Pretty awesome using the sun and a sawmill to build everything. Dry my milled wood while harvesting the sun to build. Freedom comes in many forms

I am a solar weenie too. When I built my new work shed last year I did roughly the same. 3kw panels, 3k inverter. But I did a lot more battery storage (15kwh), which is the most expensive part. I also ran my inverter to one outlet in my kitchen/dining area so I could power my fridge in a power outage. It has been working awesome.

Daughter just reported snow has started in Strasburg. At the intersection of 81 and 66. I am literally going to miss this one by like 15 miles. 

4 minutes ago, Mbusada1 said:

I live near Chesapeake Beach in Maryland, but I’m near Wardensville, West Virginia right now and woke up not expecting any snow. It’s snowing moderately now and the temperature is 10. Ground is starting to get covered. I know it’s not the 20 inches we all hoped for, but at least it’s snowing.

That is actually a pretty good sign. Wardensville is due west of the Stephens City snow anus. Maybe some flake will make it up here. 

5 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

The radar looks great. If the models weren't so adamant about this missing south I'd be thrilled right now. It's even moving more NE than modeled.

I'm sure dry air will shave the northern batch right off as it approaches. 

Yep. Nice looking band to my west. But 1 degree dews here are going to kill it. 

We still have the ULL pass for at least a chance at some really cold powder. It looked ok on the GFS/NAM. Maybe someone can steal an inch out of it. 

38 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

If they are getting rid of the NAM, what short-range models will they use?

HRRR and FV3 I assume?

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So this is semantics but I do think important distinction for any newbies. What I think you’re calling “memory” is actually seasonal pattern tendencies. In this case, a Nina background state with a somewhat stronger NS and weaker SS. The result of that is weaker SS waves that don’t phase and come north and NS waves that fly by to our north and a gap in between. 

Thing is even when the pattern relaxes a touch it still seems to go back to it's early winter track more often than not. I am not saying it will be the only thing I look at. just saying I will not ignore it anymore.  And we have been been the beneficiary of it before. Especially 09/10

I am done completely dismissing the atmospheric memory theory. I will use it in the future as part of what i am looking at. It just seems to be right too often to ignore. 

Stronger vort. But just no way it can turn up the coast. 

Just now, yoda said:

The JV 12z icon looks a little more north with its qpf field at 18 compared to 06z 24...

Definitely more amped. Lets see if it helps.

It's just a damn shame we are going to waste this beautiful arctic air. Frustrating AF.

FV3. I would love to steal a half inch out of this at this point. 

4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I honestly can't remember one time the nam was right. Maybe once in 2014 lol

It was the first model to start spitting out outrageous accumulation amounts in 2016. Everyone laughed about 40 inches out this way. It was right. 

3k and HRRR are pretty damn similar to each other. And in line with the rest of guidance. 

There is no doubt in my mind that the NAM was created  by a weenie for weenies. 

3 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I may be wrong but I imagine his questions derives from why yesterday models were showing a MECS 72 hours out to ultimately 0 region wide. It’s just astonishing how quickly it fizzled out. I know it’s computer models but it’s mind boggling how quickly it disappeared. 

I knew it was over here on Saturday night Everything was trending the same way. And it wasnt a good way.

1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

We need to move down South. 

I am seriously considering selling my Winchester house and moving to the beach permanently. But I know if I do that it will never snow at the beach again. 

the precip shield did tick north about 20 miles fwiw.