Steve25

Man, where do yall find the official spotter accumulation report from the NWS?

Just north of Baltimore City. Snow is coming down nicely. I don't know what the temperature is, I honestly don't care. Going to go for a walk and enjoy it

2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

That was kind of where my head was with it perhaps. I guess technically speaking you might have won  by the skin on your teeth. Although it could potentially be debated as to whether this qualifies as a 3+ inch storm to track since models are both above and below that mark at times. Could go either way I guess. But the overall pattern certainly did not evolve as planned. So I’m good with a draw! Thanks for the bet! It was fun! 

Yes, you're right. This storm is debatable, but I think there's a solid case for the 3+, especially considering there's a WSW. I'm absolutely not calling myself a winner. I feel like I more lucked out with this one. 

Well hey, I hope you are able to enjoy whatever we do get tonight. Hard to think there is too many punches left for winter to throw. 

Just now, WVsnowlover said:

I'd say 1am-4am should be peak rates for you.

I know there were people mentioning thundersnow possible in some of the heaviest rates the other day, is that still in the cards? 

On 2/12/2024 at 11:28 AM, RevWarReenactor said:

Well not so sure now maybe things are starting to turn in your favor just goes to show you how unpredictable the weather can be

Should we call this a draw? We got to the 15th, and there are things to track within 6 days that have legitimate 3 inch potential for BWI, so by technicality I'd win the bet. Honestly, though, the pattern is NOT what it was being hyped up to be over the past few weeks, which was your reasoning behind making the bet. I'm willing to void it. How do you feel? 

Just north of Baltimore. Thinking I'll go to bed early and wake up around 3 AM to walk. Or will that be too late? What do you think will be the best time to get out there and enjoy it? 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's odd that no one complains when I say how good the pattern looks over and over again when it does in fact look good.   Analysis is analysis.  When something is good I say it.  When something is bad I say it.  I don't blow smoke.  I don't stick my head in the sand.  And I call em like I see em.    Don't like it, put me on ignore and don't read my posts.  I won't be offended.  

I think at least part of it is emotionally driven. Plenty of people, myself included, don't want to believe our winter climate has substantially changed and with it comes noticeably less snow and more mild air. To accept that would be to accept that, on a grand scale, those of us who are on the younger side have a lot less to look forward to the rest of our lives when it comes to winter weather. That's a hard pill to swallow. 

I'm kind of split on it all. I obviously believe our climate, like everyones, is changing. I just don't know if I believe it's changing that drastically, that quickly. I don't know if that's logical or if that's my emotions hoping it's not the case. One thing that's definitely true is that ever since this region started keeping statistical records, our winters go through some serious ebbs and flows. I still think it's possible that we're just in a very bad stretch, and we will naturally rebound, but I admit the longer things stay like this, the more I believe we've turned a corner with the change of climate. It's just a painful reality to face if that is inevitable. 

10 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

EPS with a west track/miller B look for the 23rd timeframe. Not the best look for now but a big jump south from 00z.  

 

If there's a nice storm between the 22nd-25th, I'm naming my first-born child after PSU lol

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I dare the weather gods to make me eat crow.

We will get a 10 inch storm in March that no one will remember because it'll be 75 degrees the next day lol

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I don't see us getting a major, regionwide event this year. 

8 years running

Has there been an official recording at BWI? Trace, or did they actually manage 0.1? Lol

Ita very pretty to watch fall, but it's not accumulating in Parkville. I heard Baltimore County schools closed. I'm usually very liberal when it comes to schools closing. "Better safe than sorry", but is there anywhere in Baltimore County that actually warrants a closing today? Maybe the Hereford Zone, but they can separate that area when it comes to closing decisions. Idk. People can correct me if I'm wrong, but this seems like the weakest closing I've ever witnessed 

On 2/9/2024 at 7:57 AM, RevWarReenactor said:

@Steve25

 

Its not looking too good for you. You have 6 days left. Doesn't look like the Monday-Tuesday event is going to get it done far ya, and the following weekend storm is iffy at best.

Hopefully you can pull a rabbit out of a hat soon eh?

 

As for me, I am chasing my snow early next week. I am thinking the poconos is a good spot.

Loading up that $20 for you. We have to give it until we officially make it through the 15th, but the writing is definitely all over the wall lol

If there's one thing I've learned from the process in here over the past few weeks, no matter what anyone is saying, if Bob Chill isn't in here expressing legitimate excitement/interest, we should probably temper expectations.  

Unless I missed any positivity from him, he's been awfully quiet during this period when many were going wild hyping up the 15th-25th. 

18 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

@Steve25

 

Its not looking too good for you. You have 6 days left. Doesn't look like the Monday-Tuesday event is going to get it done far ya, and the following weekend storm is iffy at best.

Hopefully you can pull a rabbit out of a hat soon eh?

 

As for me, I am chasing my snow early next week. I am thinking the poconos is a good spot.

Not looking good for now, for sure. I'm always ready to admit when I'm wrong, and pay up. We will see for sure in 6 days

50 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the blocking signal looks kind of pathetic now on models.. models trended less +pna and less -nao in the last few days. Still has them dont get me wrong, but it looks like a "moderate" cold air situation. 

Am I wrong to think that COULD be an okay thing, in terms of making the chance of cold/dry/suppressed less of a possibility? 

5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Board - "WE WANT DIGITAL BLUE"

GFS - ok, here you go, three times in a row

Board - "NOT LIKE THAT"

"It was in the 40's at 1 PM the day before that digital blue! Torch! Horrible setup!" 

The funny thing is that this thread was created just to get people to stop clogging up the mid/long range thread with this talk, not because this event ever has really had a great chance 

*Models show legitimate cold airmass but no snow* 

WHERE IS THE DIGITAL BLUE!? ITS OVER! 

*Models show snow*

WHERE IS THE COLD AIR!? ITS OVER! 

Some of yall really need to take the PSU approach right now and see that the overall pattern becomes much more favorable from the 15th on forward, and focus on the details once we get closer. 

1 hour ago, Rvarookie said:

Bout time to admit defeat. Def a bummer because my lil one is getting older and hasn’t had many good events like my older boys did but is what it is. Least it’s only 42 days until spring….can’t wait to go on long runs with birds chirping and everything turning green. 

So stupid

1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Sounds good. Lets do $20. I don't have venmo but have paypal.

Checking the latest GFS, I continue to be in good shape for my call of no snow Pre 15th and nothing to track after. I believe it will hold up well. I still think I-95 from DC to Phillyshuts the rest of the winter out, minus a dusting-1 inch possibility here or there.

 

*Virtual hand shake* 

2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I am also worried that this has the chance of being a one sided "mafia" bet. If I lose, I pay you, if I win. I don't get paid.

Always a risk with strangers online lol. I'm good for it, though(for whatever those words are worth). We could go something on the smaller end, like $10 or $20 if we want to play it safe. 

Let me ask first, do you have something like Venmo to make it easy once this is all settled? 

5 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

You are kind of splitting hairs here.

 

Lets make it simply. No accumulating snow at BWI before Feb 15th. I couldn't rule out a stray flurry. Those happen. 

Nothing to realistically track on Feb 15th inside 6 days. A widespread storm. 3 inches+ for I-95 From DC to Philly. 

What are we putting on it?

2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

You are kind of splitting hairs here.

 

Lets make it simply. No accumulating snow at BWI before Feb 15th. I couldn't rule out a stray flurry. Those happen. 

Nothing to realistically track on Feb 15th inside 6 days. A widespread storm. 3 inches+ for I-95 From DC to Philly. 

Alright I'm in on this

1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Sure, lets do it. BWI is good. When I say trackable threat, it has to be showing up on the 144hr (6 days) or less GFS and has to have at least SOME support from other guidance. I have no question there will be plenty of fictional storms, cold air, and epic pattern changes at that time on the 216+hour. 

 

I maintain there is a very good chance that I-95 shuts out the rest of the winter. A dusting-an inch aside. 

An epic win would be a 5+ inch snowstorm at this point that brought the area to AVERAGE.

So, it's hard to make a bet based on perspective over what's a threat and what's not and how much model support there is. There's nothing definite about any of that. 

Let's do it based on actual accumulation. If you're saying you're confident there will be no snow up to the 15th AND that there won't be any trackable threats within 6 days of the 15th, what kind of potential accumulation would you consider a trackable threat?