NYCweatherNOW

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Quite possible

I highly doubt it honestly not one model shows that...

Just now, NEG NAO said:

I doubt this is a cutter - especially with the Euro farthest east now

Why can’t u guys think positive and say my gut is telling me this is just right a phaser with a benchmark track 980 low

GEFS quite better... way west of 12Z

Anyone have the GEFS?

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Pressure drop is fairly impressive for the fish.we just need this to go a bit west. Cape did well with precip. Fyp 

I mean no offense but it’s better and that’s light snow showing up on the GfS probably white rain but still snow.

Just now, Allsnow said:

No it’s not........

unless light rain is a big hit 

Well I meant to say it’s a lot better I got excited

Gfs is a big hit!

So far the GFS has a better northern interaction up to 96 hours. Should be a better run just off that. Let’s see what happens

Icon is east and weaker but still has precip here. 

15 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

You know it's bad when the NAVGEM comes out. Given the airmass you  need a perfectly placed phased bomb. Possible yes but the UK goes to show we need help.

Ukmet track isn’t exactly ideal. It needs to go west another 50 miles and we need a sub 980 storm for this to be a real bomb

14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

if you're outside the best banding in this setup you're getting rain

I don’t believe that! Not with a strong dynamic low like that that’s just my opinion.

edit I can see how the guys maybe in the western fringe in PA maybe get some light rain, but remember this isn’t spring, it’s still an okay airmass... the 850’s and everything above surface are below 0 Celsius.

That’s sexy!

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The exact evolution may have to wait to within the NAM’s best range. Plenty going on with the fast northern stream and timing of the southern stream shortwave ejection. A perfectly timed phase and UL track will be necessary to compensate for the lack of high pressure to the N and NW. It’s been a while since a phase worked out for us. 

Chris your an stat guy... when was the last time we had a miller A with a similar airmass that worked out and dropped us a bomb!

Just now, Allsnow said:

I believe interior sne is around avg or a bit above. The point is in marginal set ups they will often have more wiggle room. Take the December storm for example. That was a marginal airmass with white rain in the city. Sne and Albany got crushed. 
 

The point of the post wasn’t to compare who is having a worst winter. It was to show how in marginal set ups they often have more room for error. 

Are you saying it’s game over for the city 100%?

Guys you guys are very knowledgeable... I have a question, do you guys think that New York City is game over for this upcoming threat cause all the guys on the nyc forum think it is except us weenies of course? All jokes aside is it over or not?

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

too many vorts usually means not a big consolidated storm....you need to take the snow goggles off-the cards are stacked against us here.   1 in a 1000 shot  

It’s 6 days away.

Just now, Snow88 said:

I agree

Too many people canceling this storm 5 days out. Its hilarious. 

Too many vorts for the models to handle. We see this over and over again with Miller A storms.

I see Allsnow laughing. Typical.

This looks nice

If this storm is a sub 980 millibars low pressure and tracks over the benchmark with a classic +PNA trough, I don’t think you need northern stream interaction to overcome the wetbulbing effect. Globals always underestimate the thermals which in my opinion is huge, it’s happened too many times to name. Evaporative and dynamic cooling with a sub 980 storm will give New York City a big snowstorm. That’s my opinion. 

It’s not impossible but it’s thread the needle here. It needs a perfect track with a 975 or lower for this to be an all snow event in New York. 

Tucky

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Inland areas do well

You’re right I was wrong, Tucky but at least it’s not out to sea! 

Icon is a SECS. Hands down best icon run I’ve ever seen so far with this model

How’s the 6z eps looking asking for Anthony

37 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m looking to trade in my car for a truck... any advice on brands, etc?

X5 M