Snowcrazed71

I was just giving some info from another source... Calm down snappy. ;-)

But then there's this... The Madden Julian Oscillation or (MJO) is really important when it comes to long range forecasting during the winter. Thunderstorm convection initiating over various regions along the equator while simultaneously other regions are drier corresponds with a total of 8 phases we monitor that influence the weather patterns over various regions across the globe, including North America. When you have a lot of convection over phase 6 which is the Western Pacific, it likes to enhance a very warm pattern over much the US. Currently we are in a phase 6 and it’ll make sense to you if you have been outside today. When convection sets up a little further to the east over the Western Pacific, we call it a phase 7. That introduces more cold air back to the US, but is met with some resistance from a ridge of high pressure over the Southeast US that tries to keep this part of the country milder. As we head into Thanksgiving, we’ll see a brief shot of cold air for a few days, but going into early December it will be met with a return of that ridge which will again increase our temperatures for a time. When convection begins to shift into the Western Hemisphere, we call that phase 8. Phase 8 corresponds to cold overwhelming the pattern for the central and eastern US. The projected evolution of the MJO in the coming weeks is to go from 6 currently to 7 during the last week of November and early December and into phase 8 by mid December. Until that time our temperatures may be highly variable. Once we get into phase 8 mid-December, steadier cold air will become more predominant and winter weather chances will hopefully increase just in time for Christmas!

Man where are you getting your info from. There's nothing that suggests a big warm-up around the holiday. Plus, it's a month away. You know as much as anyone else that things are going to change in another week and a half from now. I love the way you say these things to just try to help your reverse psychology theory. As soon as we get a real threat, you're going to be on top of it like white on rice ( just like the rest of us ).

Thank you first off for taking the time putting this together. This is not something anyone could just " throw together ". Great read and also for having all the info to back what you are saying.

Sometimes that's all it takes

Well I can officially say we're getting our first flakes of the season. Just took a look outside and we're getting a light snow shower. Definitely puts a smile on your face

Well, it seems by the last few comments that EPS is now showing some changes by the end of the month as well.

You're also right by the water. I know branford well. So it's not that uncommon that you haven't seen a killing Frost where you are right near the shore.

I'll agree that it's not cold, but torch? Come on man. You're pulling hard. Average highs at the end of November are from the mid to upper 40s. You have a few days in the extended where you're a few degrees above the average. Enjoy your torch

Just had our third flash of lightning and thunder. That one was loud!

TBH.... I truly wonder if he is just trying to get a rise out of everybody ( action, I would hope he is, because if he's not.......... ). Lol

Kevin... You do know that November is not a Winter month, right? I mean, meteorological winter doesn't start till December 1st.

Enjoy... Just after Thanksgiving it's gone.

Lol... I was just going to respond to his email saying that this is one of your favorite phrases to say. Lol

Ok... There is going to be a warm up for Thanksgiving.... But, it is brief and then things tumble. And it looks like we head into a pretty good Winter pattern after. So, yes.... You are correct about the Thanks giving warm up! (But I'm sure you won't be sad that it will be short lived and Winter will start to.make.its way into our region soon after).