jaydreb
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Everything posted by jaydreb
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It’s been mentioned but pretty good signal for an event around 1/22-23 on the GEFS. Some big hits in the mix along with some suppressed and rain solutions.
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Surface is torching though. Seems like the GFS OP always resembles the worst of the ensemble members. Edit: Sorry for the whining.
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I know it’s been mentioned but that 6z GEFS run is total weenieness. Lots of big hits.
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We went from pinks at 18z to purple at 0z with less greens. I’ll assume that’s a good thing.
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It’s funny because we were saying last week that the Pac ridge progressing into the EPO domain was the least likely way out the abyss (as compared to regressing or getting help from Atlantic) but all indications are that this may be the outcome.
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They say the big ones are sniffed out early.
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GFS 0z is a weenie run.
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A definite improvement from 12z.
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Serious question: is there such thing as warm/dry, cold/wet pattern in the winter?
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In 93-94 I was at school in Ithaca, NY, and it was cold as hell in Jan and Feb. The coldest temp I ever experienced was -17F with a windchill around -60. The snot would literally freeze in your nostrils.
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EPS snowfall mean is about 2.3 for DC. Not impressive on its own but it comes almost entirely between 1/18 and 1/23 (end of run).
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Right. Jan-Feb 2014 was basically wall to wall deep winter with multiple events (the biggest being about a foot of snow in mid-Feb). Feb 2015 it took a week or two for us to get in the game (there was an early storm or two that missed us to the north and people were panicking) but our time came around mid-Feb and then we had a few nice events, the biggest being around 2/20 when a low ran to our west but the CAD held on and we got about 8” before flipping to sleet/drizzle.
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Pretty good match.
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EPS at end of run. Edit: Ninja’d by Bob I should let him handle this stuff
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What about that SE ridge?
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Yep. We’re not tracking a specific event per se, but we can at least track a shift to a workable pattern.
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We get frozen from a low running into Minnesota.
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Lol, if that NAO was any more positive it would look like a black hole on the map.
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Yeah, the Pacific red blob of death is muted. Still a ++AO but better overall look for sure
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All I remember is that we went from Jan 2016 to Jan 2019 without a warning event.
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Nice tease. Need 4 more panels.
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Thanks Psu. Is there a region of the country for which our “crap” pattern (i.e. the one we are facing) is actually a dream pattern? Are there weenies out there in another forum cheering for a +EPO, +NAO, -PNA pattern?
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Jan 7th. Almost a nice little event. Way too far out to take seriously.
