jaydreb

Interesting, considering Switzerland’s lead scientist said that children under 10 cannot spread the virus. https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-swiss-children-under-10-allowed-to-hug-grandparents-as-they-do-not-transmit-covid-19-11980568

The context of the discussion was all the people out and about and in close contact at parks, trails, lakes, etc.

I don’t think doctors know for sure why babies don’t seem to suffer severe illness. I’ve heard a lot of theories but no definitive answers. Let’s just be thankful that it seems to be the case. I don’t think we have enough data at this point to say whether coronavirus does or doesn’t slow down in warm weather. Just because there are cases in warm weather locations doesn’t mean that the spread isn’t less than it otherwise would have been. There will likely be an increase in cases this summer as states start to open back up. It’s inevitable. It doesn’t mean they shouldn’t open. It just means that they need to be properly prepared. The reference to a second wave in the fall refers to the likelihood that the virus will have a seasonal pattern and we could see a more dramatic uptick in the fall. We don’t know whether this will be the case but Dr Fauci has said that it is likely. As you’ve noted, this only truly ends when one of three things happens: we reach herd immunity; we have a vaccine; or the virus mutates to a less dangerous form. Until then we are going to be social distancing, have intermittent shutdowns, etc.

What you are seeing is a decline in cases in the primary hotbed of NYC, but a slow plateauing or slow increase in many other areas. Since we have been mitigating you hopefully shouldn’t see the dramatic spike that we saw in NYC. In order to reach herd immunity, we would need somewhere between 60% and 80% of the population to have antibodies. We are nowhere near that in New York or anywhere else in the country. The virus is going to be around through the summer and into the fall (and into next year) and how big the second wave is depends largely on our behavior. The virus doesn’t target older people or people with preconditions. All people are equally targeted by the virus and can get it. The risk of severe illness, however, is much higher for those groups. Remember, the vast majority of people have mild symptoms. Although they can be seasonal, viruses can and do spread in warmer weather. People do spend time inside in Florida and other such places. Take your son to the doctor. Maybe just one parent goes. Wear a mask if possible. Be careful not to touch your face and wash your hands as soon as you can. You can’t reduce the risk down to 0% but these simple steps will help.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-swiss-children-under-10-allowed-to-hug-grandparents-as-they-do-not-transmit-covid-19-11980568

I think all the talk about opening up soon could have people getting complacent.

Thanks. I think the disconnect was that I was talking about the first one also, but someone replied referring to “medical twitter.” It’s all good now, thanks.

Thanks for the clarification. Still seems like good news.

Very possible. Didn’t Fauci report the positive results of the NIAID study as being “very important?”

I trust Dr. Fauci over medical Twitter. Last time I checked he was an expert.

A 25% reduction in mortality is very good news indeed.

That’s what I’m talking about. The NIAID study. I said it was possibly good news.

My understanding is that the study compared 800 patients to placebo. I’m not a scientist but if NIH says the results are positive (which hasn’t happened yet), that’s good enough for me.

I’m not sure how medical Twitter knows what to think considering the results have not been made public yet. Even the tweet you quote says that this is “the real study to watch.”

Some potential good news on the therapeutic front. It is expected that Fauci/NIH will discuss the results at today’s briefing. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/gilead-maker-of-remdesivir-says-its-aware-of-positive-data-from-coronavirus-treatment-study/ar-BB13mQLe

Antibody testing doesn’t tell you whether you are a silent carrier. It tells you whether or not you may have had the coronavirus and subsequently developed antibodies.

I don’t know. Seems like a pretty big difference just between 1850 and present day. A typical 40 year old back then could expect to make it to around 70. Present day would be around 80. That’s around a 15% increase.

Not likely IMO. If schools are open, there will probably be many changes including reduced class sizes, more physical distancing, less traffic in the halls, wearing of masks, lunch in the classrooms instead of cafeteria, etc.

I think barbers/hairdressers could just allow one client at a time in the shop, and the worker and customer could wear masks. Restaurants would have more people - workers and customers. I agree there should be enough spacing between the phases to allow for processing whether they are causing an increase in cases.

Yes but doesn’t mean they gave it to each other on the beach. The bigger issue is sharing hotel rooms, bars, restaurants, etc. I assume these are mostly residents hanging out on the beach with their families.

It probably looks worse than it actually is. If people keep their distance from one another the risk of transmission is fairly low. The other issue, however, is that all those people are touching more gas pumps, parking meters, etc.

Who are they testing? 47,000 people presented with flu like symptoms? Or are they expanding the testing criteria?

Correct.

More new cases could just be a result of more widespread testing. We probably should be tracking deaths and new hospitalizations.