How much of this winter has just been bad luck though? DC was super close to a good event in December and then another one this Thursday. A few very minor adjustments and we’re talking about nearing climo by the end of January.
So I’m starting to agree with that poster who always pops in to say the models suck. If an ensemble suite can show that much certainty within 5 days and be wrong then what’s the point of having it at all?