LeesburgWx
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Everything posted by LeesburgWx
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So to summarize, we are playing the numbers game like salesmen. Make enough phone calls or get enough storms in a given pattern, one will eventually hit.
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Looking at individual ensemble member runs is like window shopping. You can salivate and wonder what its like to have it, but you never will because you can't afford it.
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So we usually complain it’s the storm after the storm on models but now we are rooting for the storm after the storm…
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This is pretty good signal, no? I mean it's 180 hours out but that is a hell of a lot closer than 280-384 hours out.
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I’m watching news and radar videos of 2016… God, I hope this pattern gives us the unicorn we are looking for.
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Just measured exactly 5 inches in downtown Leesburg.
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What kind are you drinking?
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This was never a more than 2-4 inch storm guys. Although, I’m hugging DT’s 4-7 inch call.
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This is making it over the mountains, right?
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Looks like GFS
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Talk about such drastic differences for 12-16 hours out lol
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Wow, GFS If the GFS was right, when is the last time our region had back to back WSW events in the same week?
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DT’s take
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NE MD De-Pummled?
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15 Pee-wee models discussed in the last 2 pages…God help us
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That looks great actually Acceptable.
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18z GFS looks like ICON but favors same areas as yesterday it appears.
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HRRR & GFS led the way on the last storm. In HRRR & GFS I Trust.
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Thoughts on the 84 hour NAM since we are basically in range?
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So if Thursday/Friday works out, what are we looking at potential wise for amounts?
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Guys, this storm is only 84-90 hours out…
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The models did really well with predicting the cutoff. Here in Leesburg, I ended up with 2.5” but it cut off early this morning and has been mostly a Fairfax County east storm
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Perspective
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Yeah, this GfS run is just fine. 8 inches in Leesburg and 15 in DC lol. I think the sharp cutoff will be right around or just west of Leesburg. But overall, the models are pretty locked in now.
