JustinRP37

Why do people listen to JB? I really don’t get it. His whole MO is all cold all the time. Well so far his winter forecast has been garbage. Even with the extreme cold coming, as others mentioned it is in Andy out in 36 hours. Then much of the week looks to be in he 30s and 40s. We may even approach 50 on Thursday. We will see what happens in February, but that is one out of three meteorological winter months. I surely do not think it will completely erase the positive anomaly we have this meteorological winter season, but I hope to be wrong. Even a frigid February will likely just bring us to ‘normal’. It would almost need to be historically cold to get us below average for the season. 

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I agree - we have been sent so many false signals the last month - everthing10days away - its time to curb the enthusiasm - what happens if the MJO goes into the warm phase 5 as advertised by the Canadian ? Could be a relatively short cold spell ………..

Unfortunately if there was one giant 36 incher and then back to the upper 40s and 50s, many would say wow look I predicted a ton of snow and we got it! I know I have said it many times, but snowfall is just one part of a 'good' winter. The other is days with snow cover and finally number of nights that snow can be made at the local ski areas. I am hopeful based on current guidance that we are through the roughest part. Many local ski areas should be at or near 100% open by this weekend (late, but thankfully we had that November cold snap). 

I really hope this pattern change comes. It has been a pretty dreary winter so far. Even people that hate snow are saying they want snow instead of rain. It has been a truly incredible pattern though when you think about it. Could you imagine if we had a summer where we had a week of 80 in May, and then nothing but the 50s and 60s until the end of July with rain every other day? Pretty incredible when you think about it like that!

23 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

More than that

Actually it is 10 weeks and 6 days until spring. Winter is sleeping in at this point. Somebody poke her with a stick and get her going. At least get some cold nights so local ski areas can resurface their trails and get to 100% open. Anytime to get to January and you are not 100% open, it is troubling. 

To those always wondering why long range forecasters say above average snowfall year in and year out... what do you see on Twitter and click more? A headline that says below average snowfall expected in the Northeast or “Bitter Cold and Snowy Winter for the Northeast Expected”? This is why people have to look at the track record of the person calling for the brutal cold. To us winter sports enthusiasts, this is peak season! One massive storm doesn't make the season! It isn't even cold enough to make snow at night currently in Southern NY and southern New England. 

People always confuse me with the obsession of only considering annual snowfall. Annual snowfall means nothing to winter sports enthusiasts if the vast majority of the winter is a torch. We have had quite a few winters that if you look at snowfall, you'd conclude wow that was a cold winter. As a tick biologist, the duration with snow cover is actually much more important for ticks than just having a bunch of snow that melts within a week. Snow acts as an insulator and does provide many ecological benefits. One day I'll organize my snow cover data better for online posting.

19 minutes ago, North and West said:

 

Interesting to see. I don’t know nearly enough about the physics behind it, but it blows my mind how much these 10-15 day forecasts can change radically. I was all amped up for cold, and now it may not be that at all.

 

It *does* make me think twice about how much people put faith into knowing exactly what the trends/picture will be in 25/50/100 years from now.

 

I’m not discounting or questioning AGW or anything of the sort; more so the absolutism Of knowing exactly what will occur, whether it’s in two weeks or centuries.

 

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The big difference is scientists aren’t forecasting a 100-200 square mile area when they are forecasting the temperature rise. It is very hard to pinpoint weather conditions, but easier to forecast global temperatures. Even though we are cold, much of the globe is still above normal, and that above normal blob is larger than the cold blob. Basically it is easy to say that it will snow somewhere in December than it is to say Central Park will receive 3-6 inches in December 16th, 2018. Scientists can look at species movements and see how the rise in greenhouse gases will change the weather in the future in the general sense. 

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If only we could redo this magic again:

 

It was an epic storm and as much as I loved it, I could do without the power grid going down for a month. Because of that storm, I lost one year of my PhD research, but luckily it was in the beginning of my research. Happy to report I am done with that now though. It was an awesome storm. I drove from Tuckahoe, NY to Avon, CT just as it was starting. It was incredible to literally hear the trees just imploding from the weight.

Let’s get the leaves off the trees before hoping for snow. Leaves still pretty green here in the NYC metro. The Halloween storm was so impactful partly because of the leaves on the trees. And let’s not forget that that after that storm the rest of winter sucked.

Why does anyone want MORE rain up here? I'll take frost covered pumpkins in the morning with sunshine all day giving way to a DRY 60s. 

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

What dry few weeks? Not here.

See above. It rained again most of last night.

Agree. I want to know where it has been 'dry'. When I go for my runs, I have not seen totally try pavement in quite sometime. It is unbelievably damp out even on our 'dry' days. I don't think we have gone more than 72 hours without some rain in quite some time. 

4 hours ago, Cfa said:

And only 12.9” fell. I never would’ve suspected that their records would pale in comparison to ours, as cold as it is there. Calgary is about as cold as Daytona Beach is warm, in relation to our climate.

No ocean or Great Lake to tap into for moisture. Their cold is a ‘dry’ cold lol.

2 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Despite all of the warmth, I don't think NYC has had a record high temperature. Daily highs haven't been that impressive despite the consistent warmth and high dews.

But we have been setting many a record high low temperature this 'fall'.

17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I could really use a dry stretch of weather.

Ditto! Some many leaks this year springing up. Both my office and home. Let us all catch up and let us get some vitamin D with the sun! It looks like we will get that drier weather!

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

I think last winter was the first winter where we had snowcover from January - March since 2015.

We definitely didn’t have snowcover in much of the area from mid-January through February. In fact we were busy in the lab dealing with ticks that were out!

One thing I am worried about is how averages always seem to win out. With so many locations having near record precipitation, when do we fall back into a dry period? There could be a good chance that we flip to cold and dry. We will see...

26 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Definitely, I have just seen recent cases with reports (tweets) of impending heat within a weeks time only to see that not come to fruition. I'm wondering if its a function of the late summer/early fall transition that makes a 7-day highly suspect because the atmosphere is in transition? In mid-summer or winter, I expect your going to get days 5 through 7 right more often?

But we are still getting the heat... Last night set a record high low at LGA. This time of 80s are still well above normal, but people always forget to look at the low temperatures too. Average daily temperatures have been running above normal pretty much all month with a few breaks. A string of average high temperatures does not mean the pattern is average if your low temperatures are well above average.

Yeah if it could just go ahead and stop raining for a bit that would be nice. Our COOP building had never had as many leaks as this year with how hard and wind driven the rain has been. It is literally finding all the crevices to enter the building. Can't wait to move within a year to a bigger place (hopefully without any leaks because this is ridiculous).

16 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

?? Heheh. You'll manage to get out, trust me at some point your wife will tell you to get out of her way and go do something  

That 117 number BW posted is way short of what it's been up here just 60 miles from midtown. I'd add another 50 to that easily but that's just anecdotal from looking at cams and such.

I guess you know I'm sleep deprived haha. Snowless summer haha. I know some people would love a snowy summer on here. I need sleep. 

2 minutes ago, Cfa said:

In my opinion, only September has felt noticeably cloudy on Long Island. Summer as a whole felt run of the mill, sunshine and precip-wise. Though humidity was off the charts and temps were slightly above normal.

Yeah one thing I noticed this year is Long Island was much sunnier than just inland. I had to go to the field station a bunch further upstate and going from the city, I was amazed how different the days were. I would look at beach webcams and what not and it would be clear on the south shore and cloudy upstate. Just impressive dynamics really this summer with those dews.

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

See below

Yup the percentage of cloud cover during daylight hours has been exceptionally high this year going all the way back to March.

Thanks! Yeah looking at the cloud cover data it has been pretty impressive for awhile. Hopefully we don’t flip to dry and snowless for summer, but we will see. Even though I do not think I will be able to get out skiing this year (just welcomed my son into the world), I do love a nice bluebird winter day with great snow cover. 

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Are you new to this area? Weather has been pretty typical so far this year.

Born and raised here... This summer was not typical of this area, sorry to say. Quick look at hours of dews above 70 and cloud cover for the summer will quickly show you this was not a “typical” summer. And as Bluewave pointed out 117 days of measurable precipitation and counting for #1. 

I'm hoping that we can finally string together a dry week with much more sun after today. The constant cloudiness is really starting to weigh on people I have noticed. No wonder so many people are vitamin D deficient here haha!

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