JustinRP37

3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

We deserve a nice, warm, early Spring after the brutal Winter we have just endured. Yes, it snowed a lot, which was fun at times. There were also periods of brutal, bone chilling cold and dry weather and more ridiculously windy days than I can count.

This winter as a whole was not as windy as last winter. Much colder yes, but definitely not as windy given by the much lower number of wind holds on ski lifts throughout the season. And last springs winds... Well that was awful. But deserving a nice, warm spring and actually getting one is completely different. Springs by nature lately kind of just suck here. Windy, mist, miserable clouds for weeks on end teetering between 33 and 55. Then like heaven's gate opening we switch into summer mode. I'll actually met a guy on the gondola at Belleayre this season living my dream. Skiing all winter here and then heads to Phoenix or Florida depending on the year for 5 weeks at the end of March (to avoid the season I just described). 

10 years ago...

1 hour ago, LoboLeader1 said:

NWS has temps progged to be near 40 here from Weds thru the rest of the week.

 

Average high for midtown is now 44. Average for my area is exactly 40. Looks average to just below for the week. 

We are back under a mega band here in Patterson, NY. Snow is really cranking. 

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Next weeks storm keeps trending sourh

This was once a cutter

I know you will get a lot of people saying we don't want snow, but they all should. Nobody wants a cutter with feet of snow on the ground. Basements would be flooded. I love the snow, so I'll always take it, but the absolute best thing that could happen for us in a drought would be a good snow pack that slowly melts into the spring to percolate into the soil and recharge ground water. That would help tremendously.

Just now, Nibor said:

I wanna go outside so bad but I'm stuck working remotely.

Pretend you lost power or internet 

The drifts are so impressive and this and I have been under all morning. When I was out making a snow blower pass we were roughly 15-18 with drifts that look like they are over 2 feet. 

Just got back from a nice walk! My son wanted to go out "snow plow hunting". We caught two. It is really coming down out there. He said he is moving to a place where this happens every winter.

Big update, the LIRR will be shutting down on many branches this evening. That is the first big change to MTA service. 

Starting to snow here. Still have a good 3-6 on the ground still from January. This is getting exciting! 

1 minute ago, Tekken_Guy said:

The GFS's big cutting down on the forecasts seems to say otherwise.

That's because you are living and dying by models runs. Globals are not as great to pinpoint amounts now. This happened 100% last storm too and the NWS was pretty much spot on. Unless the high-resolutions models and what is currently happening begins to look like it won't happen, go by the NWS forecast. 

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

A lot of these posts were hidden before I read them but seriously guys, get a grip. 

Just don't hide good information. My posts were hidden and based on the law. Many people do not know your insurance will not cover you when a travel ban is in place. It is serious and can bankrupt the average person easily. And if you MUST travel be sure that your employer will back you by calling you essential. I know there are cases in education where food service is clearly essential, but insurance didn't want to cover those employees getting to campus. The employer then had to do battle to say they were. 

Just now, coastalplainsnowman said:

Speaking of which at some point would love to get you and other mets / technical folks take on what you think about on air mets increasingly showing the models and kind of deferring to them, rather than interpreting them along with all their other inputs and making a forecast.  Just showing me, for example,  that the GFS gives us a foot and the Euro gives us 2" doesn't really tell me anything, other than that it might snow or it might not.

I'm not a met, but in environmental science at the college level. But part of the reason for what you are seeing for on-air mets, is many of them are actually not mets anymore. I think Lonnie Quinn is great, but his formal training is not in meteorology. His degree is in communications. He has really committed to learning meteorology though. Many have not though and simply follow the models. 

Metro-North to be hourly tomorrow. Sigh... I hope they don't damage more trains trying to keep service going. It was a disaster after the last storm for weeks after because of the mechanical failures caused by snow getting into electronics. 

9 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Of course they can shut down roads for emergencies. But not every road. They can't tell you that you can't leave your home for any reason. Do you really want some idiot politicians determining what is essential to YOU? 

They most certainly can. What do you think a curfew is when there is unrest? Doesn’t mean you have to abide by it but they can arrest you for it if you are causing an issue. And as I said earlier when a travel ban is issued your insurance will not cover you if you get into an accident unless you are essential. 
 

whoever deleted that without the others sorry but not okay. 

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Of course they can shut down roads for emergencies. But not every road. They can't tell you that you can't leave your home for any reason. Do you really want some idiot politicians determining what is essential to YOU? 

They most certainly can. What do you think a curfew is when there is unrest? Doesn’t mean you have to abide by it but they can arrest you for it if you are causing an issue. And as I said earlier when a travel ban is issued your insurance will not cover you if you get into an accident unless you are essential. 

I love that I got the poop emoji for saying governments can limited transportation during emergencies. Sad that civics and history aren’t taught. Look up why the interstate highway system was developed. Also, if you think NY is bad live in Ohio with their stupid snow level warnings. They use them to ban traffic far more often than we do and often for far less. I routinely make fun of my in-laws for how easy it is to shut down everything out there. 

Just now, NJwx85 said:

16z HRRR ticking back West again. All this pancaking is BS. 

So many people think because they come on weather forums during storms that suddenly they know better than trained mets and the NWS. The flop like a fish out of water with each model run. It really does make the place unbearable. Even before the last storm people were complaining about the nws not lowering amounts. 

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

I drove to work that morning. Granted, I'm exempt from travel bans. But there were alot of other people on the roads. And I saw nobody getting pulled over, or turned around. It would probably be Unconstitutional if ever brought before Supreme Court?

No it wouldn’t. Governments do have the right to shut down roadways to non-essential traffic during emergencies. 

Just as an fyi if you are driving in a travel ban as a non-essential person and get into an accident, your insurance will NOT cover the damage. You will also receive a major fine 

The GFS does have a better track record with Nor’Easters. There has been enough GFS bashing here. The model really is not THAT bad. Among the big ones they all have their strengths. But so far seeing the other models come towards the GFS has been great. 

39 minutes ago, njwx7 said:

Could the GFS score a coup on this one, maybe, but it really just is a woeful model. The GFS holding on to a solution for run after run only to cave to other guidance in the short term is almost always what occurs. The verification scores show everything you need to know:

 

The Euro, CMC (can't believe I'm saying that) and the Ukmet consistently outperform the GFS.

 

Again, could the GFS be correct in this case, sure, but overall it is just not a serious model. 

 

Just looking at the data here those are scientifically significant differences most likely. I’d have to run stats but eyeballing it looks like they are not significantly different among the big models. 

10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

march 2017...and the day before mitchell volk warned that he thought it was possible for the city and nearby suburbs; he was correct; the sleet line went all the way up though north jersey still had a good storm; we had a few inches and the shore had so little a guy posted himself bass fishing in ocean county during " the blizzard"....and he caught a few.....

Yes! I think that was the one. I was still in tuckahoe and it quickly went to sleet then plain rain. Then I knew we had a massive bust. 

Sigh, reading this tonight, and it is clear even many long-time posters are just making definitive statements that just were not true. Declaring any model victorious 3.5+ days out is just wild. The EURO is NOT infallible, just like the GFS. Models are human-made and thus not perfect. Weather models are literally attempting to predict the future. There are so many components that can cause so much to go wrong. Each model does have strengths and weaknesses. The GFS does tend to do well with northeastern storms. Sure, it isn’t perfect. We have had big letdowns even within a day. I’ll never forget years ago watching the rain/snow line heading further north than any model had it, and instead of over a foot of snow, we received a few inches. We should talk about patterns and systems and try not to let emotions cloud judgements. Just judging by the tenor of the threads lately, it seems many are ready for spring. But let’s see where things go. Plenty of solutions still on the table. 

This is a very weird winter. If it is this dry in June-August we are in trouble. As much as I love the blue bird days…