JustinRP37

This is a very weird winter. If it is this dry in June-August we are in trouble. As much as I love the blue bird days…

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

With next system going south the dry streak will continue. This will be very bad heading into spring. Things need to turn around quickly 

Don’t worry, we signed my son up for baseball again. It will rain every weekend starting in April and lasting until June. This is the Ball model and is amazingly accurate for spring. 

2 hours ago, deathstar9 said:

Probably mid- March 2017 during and right after the blizzard?

 I think that is right because it was before my son was born. 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Depends where you are in the forum-long Island the city and the jersey coast are way different than your area.  I'm somewhere in the middle.   Always said 3/10 or so was the end around here with the exception of March 2018 type patterns.  

Very true, but it wasn’t that long ago we had that record breaking cold snap in mid March even down to the coast with night temps dipping to the single digits. I remember because I was in Vermont and opted for a spa day with my wife since it was in the single digits with below zero wind chills. That was an insane March. I’d have to look at my photo album for when that was. 

Jesus Christ some people are unbearable lately on here. I get that many are sick of winter but wishing it away isn’t going to work. Why, suddenly, are so many people saying winters end in mid February in our region? That is statistically and categorically false. On a probability standpoint we just past the most snowy portion of winter. It doesn’t completely drop off. Growing up St. Patty’s day really felt like the end of winter with ski areas turning more to slush and yards melting. I’d be very very shocked if we put up a goose egg the rest of winter. 

Been reading some about the incoming El Niño and some good researchers are saying this looks like it could lead to 2026-2028 being really warm especially in the summer. I do think that with as dry as the whole US has been that once we turn warm we will be pretty hot. I am not ready for ski season to end, so all this talk of everyone being done with winter isn’t accurate. Plus we have the Winter Olympics going on! 

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I mean it’s Feb 10th now. Temp averages start going up pretty substantially from here and the sun is noticeably getting stronger. It’s the equivalent of August 10th in the summer-can still be hot but the worst is in the past. 

Ahh no. Sun is no where near August 10th. We still have more darkness than daylight. We are still in November sun. 6 weeks to the equinox. Sorry to burst your bubble. 

3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

young men are failing out of school like crazy. i know lots of them. hence the efforts to stem the flow. my friend's daughter is in med school and can practically count the males on one hand......seeing it across the board in many professions. my son finished his masters and he was the only man in his whole cohort, in a science degree.

Advanced degrees are different. A bachelor’s it is incredibly difficult to fail out of if you keep showing up. Masters and PhDs and MDs do have a lot not mae it for various reasons. But the sad thing is we are seeing very few males in STEM. I have very few males in many of my classes now. 

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm interested in his track record. Anyone can put up a .WX on social media, create sites, or apps and "forecast." And, models and ensembles have virtually no skill at the lead time involved. Finally, there's no verification of past claims.

The reason I ask, is because he is wrong when it comes to early spring (the transitional period) and Greenland blocking. For both the first and second halves of March (late winter/eaely spring transition), Greenland blocking results in cooler conditions in the East. Getting the basics wrong is a red flag. 

I am not suggesting right now that March will be cold or warm. I am focusing on the narrower point that Greenland blocking leads to a colder March outcome, not a warmer one.

Exactly. Sadly nowadays even a degree doesn’t mean much. It is very hard to “fail” someone out of a degree these days. There is so much “support” to help even the weakest minds through. Failing at the basics while still earning a science degree is very much achievable now. 

5 hours ago, golfer67 said:

Please please don't say this (see my username)

I’m a skier and also love getting outside once spring gets going. However, I honestly think April is the worst month of the year. Mist, grey, warm to cold and back again, mud, and flies… better to go out to Arizona to golf in April. 

I think the CPC climate maps cause confusion for many. They are simply probabilities and should not be red and blue. People seem to think they are actual magnitudes. “Oh look dark red for this area, it’s going to torch!” Meanwhile the forecast is for 38-42 or a touch above. Same thing in July then it looks dark blue for 90-100% chance of below normal and the highs are 80-84. Below normal but just by a touch. They should also have a corresponding map that would show the estimated departure range. Just a thought since I see those tossed around a lot. 

It definitely has been a stein winter. I really cannot remember a winter with as many blue bird days. Really incredible. 

For those saying it likely won’t be this cold again… congrats. Coldest temps in years usually don’t occur multiple times, especially heading towards the back half of winter. Meteorologically, that is like saying after a tropical storm that we likely won’t see another one that year. Not that hard to say. As for those saying that is the end of winter and we go to spring now, we aren’t even at President’s Day! We moderate, but it stays fairly close to normal except for a few days above. It will feel like spring given where we have been, but I think March could be a great season for the Vermont ski areas this year. After all, March is Killington’s biggest snowfall month. 

My son had a hockey game at daybreak this morning. Gorgeous morning. Yes it was cold but it was tranquil. Maybe I need to move to Alberta or Nunavut. This week is going to feel like a heat wave. 

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

So the remaining eggs of the mosquitos are only killed by brutal cold like this? 

Yes, read some studies how some need to be below zero before they start to die off. Snow and ice insulate well. But with the last few winters some pushed quite far north. 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Had a few ladybugs in the house this week 

Same the Asian ladybugs. They were coming out at my house again. So weird. 

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Tick killer cold on these NAM runs over the weekend.  jesus christ

As a vector disease ecologist I could not agree more. However, the snow cover will insulate the little bastards. Would be nice to have cold like this in November to really decrease the numbers. But this cold should also kill off some of our invasive mosquito species somewhat. 

This winter has been damn good for skiing. Sure we need more snow but for once we aren’t getting snow followed by warm temps turning the slopes icy. I know many are obsessed with having more falling but I personally like the cumulative snow cover and this is impressive. Sure I want more snow but I’d be even happier if we just stay cold with the occasional refresher. But I won’t turn more down either. 

I took some time away from working from home this afternoon to use the snowblower to clear a path to the oil and propane fills. Looking ahead it looks like we will have a decent pack on the ground middle of the month when I am due for both! Snow was still pretty fluffy here and easy to move. About 9 inches still on the ground. Was happy I could cut through a big snow bank to the road though. I do feel bad for the oil men when people don't clear a path. I know it can't be fun searching for the fill. 

Plows went by my house this morning pushing the snow back further. Weird to do this without a true threat on the horizon yet, but I guess they want to push it back before the next deep freeze. 

I’m so confused by what is all going down in here. Normally I come here for more sensible discussions from the ny metro area. This has been a pretty great winter overall compared to the last half decade, but it has been dry. I see some moderation after this next cold shot, but I definitely don’t think winter’s back is broken. Some of the models are already hinting that the moderation may be short-lived. But today was about the best skiing at Belleayre I have ever had. Their snow depth is literally insane with also snowmaking whales 10+ feet high on many trails. 

I would absolutely be completely shocked if any of the Northeast gets shutout for the rest of the season. At a minimum I think we will see a few smaller snowfalls. 

Today was about the best skiing at Belleayre I have ever had. Their snow depth is literally insane with also snowmaking whales 10+ feet high on many trails. The snow was also amazing. Even did some tree skiing in the glades. Go out and enjoy it! 

23 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

But many of us don't live in NYC.

The normals in Orange County today are 35/15, on Feb 28 they are 41/20 a big difference from the UHI. Bring on a snowy February and March and let's stop talking about Spring on Feb 2. We're in the middle of a decent winter for the first time in four years, can't we just enjoy it.

It is amazing. People who start talking about fall on August 2nd would be chewed up and spit out of here. Then again this winter has already been longer than the past several . It is absolutely wild how on February 2nd, people see a relaxation in the pattern and immediately it is time for spring. 

16 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

have to love the change of seasons and while i would like another snowstorm or two, am happy to have a half assed KU and some smaller events along with the cold. that said, walking is a challenge for us older folks and the ice mounds are too thick to chop. time for them to go. i've been down in monmouth this weekend and while they had less snow, by a little bit, they have huge mounds and a lot of parking lots are only partially cleared. its kind of cool tbh. but, my itchy skin and drafty bedroom...i need a break.

On the flip side the same can be said now with heat related health issues now. June and into July last summer were quite deadly. Point I’m trying to make is our winters have been growing shorter if you look at open and close dates for ski areas. The media tends to really go on and on about the cold but even when heat reaches oppressive levels they are much less in your face about it. My wife has also finally convinced me that I need to use moisturizer haha. 

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

2 days ago people on twitter were screaming record cold through February…. Today they’re all screaming torch second half of February lol

It’s one reason why the internet is garbage for weather.  It’s become like a damn spectator sport and hype machine. According to the weather media we should have all been dead from starvation if we didn’t stock up on groceries before the storm.