JustinRP37

1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

He gives the weenies what they want to here in the beginning of the year then he bails at the end,all about $$$$$$$$$

See that is the number one thing I believe that drives these predictions in September and October of historic cold and historic snows. Many people don't realize this, but clicks = money. Nobody is going to read a headline that says "Mild winter and below average snowfall in the east". However, they will click if they see "Brutal cold and misery to control winter in the east". With that being said, we have been having a lot of historic snows of late. However, if you do look at temperatures they tell a different story overall. Winter 2014-2015 though was still about as end to end as we will get. 

8 minutes ago, TwcMan said:

Like I said before, this is the worse winter just because of the constant teases. “It’ll get better”, “pattern will change”, “damn confluence pressing too much”, “damn confluence not pressing enough”, “DC is snowing”, “more virtual snow”, “arctic outbreak to cutter 12 hours later to arctic outbreak 12 hours after”, etc.. lol

What bothers me the most is the constant, 'well everything is on track'. My forecast for much above normals snowfall is right on target. Grr. I think I'll be eating crow when I called for 100-115% of average snowfall this year. I think February is going to shape up about +1.5 to +2.5F overall. That would mean DJF ends just above average. We'll see. I am not seeing anything particularly sustaining of a massively snowy period. 

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Pretty much and every forecast called for 40-60" of snow (which could still occur)

This would be historic and unprecedented at this point based on where we are in the season and what we have already received. If I was betting on that happening now, that would not be a safe bet. We would basically need a 6-12 inch snowstorm roughly every week into the beginning of March.

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Not really.   There's been 2 cold arctic shots and that's about it and even those were in and out with the lack of Atlantic blocking.   The calls for sustained cold/snowy have not worked out to date.   Maybe it changes, but the last month definitely did not go as planned.

Exactly! One would think that with the month finish just about average for temperature for the month, yet we had two truly historic cold blasts, that would show you really how mild we have been overall. I cannot remember a winter month with two major arctic outbreaks that did not finish the below average for temperatures. 

5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

So, are you saying that we shouldn't warn people because they are too dumb to handle it?  I say screw the idiots and let the ones with brains have information they can use to make good decisions.  The SS Warning did indeed say to wait out the event until it had passed.

 

 

Not saying that at all. The original snow squall warning did not have anything saying "wait out the event until it had passed" or anything like that. Here in our area it did not include timings either. That led to a lot of miscommunications just before the squall's arrival.  I noticed that eastern Mass and Maine did get that included with their warnings along with the timing of the arrival.

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

And it did happen but not here. Everything is going as planned.

Would you stop with the everything is going as planned business. Just a week ago nobody was calling for a spike in temperatures to start February. Go back the middle of December and people were saying shortly after the New Year and the MJO was heading to the right phases. What happened? It did not work out. Forward to just a few weeks ago, February is looking better. Then boom, spike in temperatures shows up. While I hope February 10th we really see some snow, but no nothing went as 'planned' this winter. Most people's long range forecasts busted in December and have further busted in January. The only thing I might get right on my own LR forecast is +1.5 to +2.5F on DJF temperatures. My snowfall of 100-120% average is likely going to bust and bust hard. 

1 minute ago, NycStormChaser said:

That sounds like an employer problem and a problem for people who think it's smart to get an an alert like that and proceed to get into their car and drive. The NWS job is to warn people. They don't tell people to leave work early. 

While I agree their job is to keep people safe, they can improve the snow squall product. First that alert only goes out if the local area chooses too. NYC decided to make that weather alert a push notification to cell phones as an EAS alert. Second, with thunderstorm warnings they give very accurate timings as to the beginning and the approximate ending times as well. The same can be done for this weather product. Again, not trying to be a smart $ ss.

Just now, NycStormChaser said:

Tell that to the people involved in a deadly pileup in Pennsylvania earlier. 

Tell that to the people in multiple accidents around THIS area that were let out of work early because of the squall instead of being told to wait it out. People got that alert and literally fled to the doors making what was a small event turn into a much worse situation on the roads. All roads are now back to normal around here and this is the normal rush hour. So no I'm not trying to make light of a tragic situation, but half the time lately these warnings put the fear of god into people. The alert should have said wait out the squall where you are. Once the line passes conditions will RAPIDLY improve. 

1 hour ago, shadowsintherain said:

This is a bit dramatic, no?


.

You have to adequately panic the public!! I heard there was too much bread at the stores, so we need to create a run on bread. 

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The pattern still isn’t good enough even at the end of the EPS if the NAO isn’t negative.  You can see purely for example purposes that at the end of the Day 10 Op Euro we are about to get another cutter.  

One reason why I am just ready for this awful winter to be over. It is either rainy and warm or bone cold and dry. Not much room for outdoor sports and exercise. I would have already taken a vacation since the rain really brings me down, but with a 4 month old that can be hard. We are hoping to get to Vermont next month though to see some real snow. At one point we had more days with rain than we had dry days in his young life. I am hoping that we at least get out of this wet pattern by summer. 

So now if the models start pushing that 2/10 date back, we can say yeah forget about it. Let's hope we start to actually approach the real change to snowy.

The accumulation of salt on the roads is more than the accumulation of snow. It is actually impressive how much salt there is everywhere. It is like NY is trying to show us just how much snow they were ready for for this year. 

It is just so frustrating to see more rain here in Tuckahoe, NY. Even my sister in Virginia has much more snow than us this year. 

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

2001-02 is probably the first year I remember reading him and he was still gung ho for a cold snowy winter in the northeast. We did get cold briefly in late December but it was clear it wouldn't last

That was my last year on ski team, and I remember that being just downright brutally icy because like you said the cold didn't last long. 

I still think we reach average snowfall (I'll admit though I have crow cooking in the oven now). I always thought this winter would feature normal to just above normal temperatures (looks like that is still the case). I'm just playing devil's advocate and pointing out that JB always claims wall to wall cold and snow in a season forecast. But sorry to say, that forecast for winter is already 2/3rds wrong. December was warm and not snowy, and January was average and not snowy. That is one thing that drives me nuts is when someone predicts above average snowfall for meteorological winter with below average temperatures, then when we end up having much above normal temperatures but one massive storm got us above average,  that person goes "see" I was right". To me that is just dumb luck, which in the 2010s has turned out right more times than not since we have been getting blockbuster storms. I think the MTA in NYC has had more suspended days in the 2010s than any other decade for snow. 

Edit: Wrong quote.

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

He did one year-04-05 maybe? And he was right...but that's it...   While I enjoy JB and do learn alot from his posts/videos, he has a clear cold bias-he'll try to find the cold in the pattern regardless.  You have to factor that in with him and Joe D'Aleo....

But back then he was with Accuweather still. So, how much of that was truly him? Plus that pattern was pretty darn clear. Not trying to be disrespectful and what not, because he does know his storms quite well. However, like you said for the cold, he could probably have his true snow weenies believe that it could snow in NYC for Independence Day at noon. 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

JB had originally talked of a long lasting severe cold snap that would stretch resources thin....he's not talking about that anymore and is stating the models are too strong on the warm up next week.  (certainly trying to keep the ship afloat, but it's taking on more water than the pumps can handle...)

JB is the head of the snow weenie club. He is always preaching coldest times ever with wall to wall winter. Why? Because clicks and marketing. Seriously, when was the last time JB said in the fall, "you know what? This year I am expecting above normal temperatures and below average snowfall for the east coast metropolitan region." I cannot remember one year where it was not going to be the coldest winter of all time. And sadly, not one has been the coldest winter of all time. Then when we have a winter like this, despite his original call being very incorrect, people still go back to, but JB sees cold and snowy in the future. Long range forecast are very difficult to make, but when each and every year is going to be record snowfall, you have to begin to wonder whether it is just hype.

1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

On another note, this is a message to all the so called climate change theorists... just because we're experiencing  a dead ratter winter, does not mean this is the new norm from here on out. I have a family member who believes in this assumption.  We have been incredibly fortunate coming off a string of above normal winters. We were due for a bad one at some point. 

Actually most climate change models show our area continuing to have an increasing average snowfall for awhile. One of the reasons for this is the ocean temps have been well above normal for many of our storms adding fuel to the storm. Globally, warmer air holds more moisture. If you look at the average cloud cover globally, that too has been on the way up. So for awhile increasing snowfall until things take a turn. The problem is the media doesn’t cover or digest science too well. And for anyone who doesn’t think that almost 8 billion humans don’t have an impact on the climate, well I can’t help them. There are still people who insist the world is flat and evolution doesn’t exist. Yet we can see the globe and watch evolution with our very own eyes. The problem is people believe climate change is a political problem, it is not. And I see no reason why we can not develop technology to allow us to use resources more efficiently and have a cleaner environment. Nobody wants to live anywhere near a mountain top removal mining area. My prior life I worked in coal my restoration and I can tell you it is not a pretty sight. And always remember, that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. You cannot avoid thermodynamics even with fossil fuels. 

19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think there has been way way too much focus on the MJO this winter. While it is a factor there are many reasons for our lack of snow. I think the biggest has been the wrong placement of the PNA ridge out west. This leads to the trough access in the east being in an unfavorable position. And we end up with rain event, cold, rain event and repeat. Had these two factors been different we would be looking out our windows at feet of snow.

Each year I feel like there is an over-emphasis on something or other. A few years ago it was the Siberian snow cover index (which turned out to be horrible). Then it was SSW events, this year it is the MJO. There is not 'single' driver of the weather or a pattern. We are human and build models. The models are only as good as our current knowledge. The problem is the environment is not static, things are constantly changing, so while model X may work one year, it may be terrible in a different situation. I try to convey this to my ecology classes when I get the question "well scientists were wrong." It is more like new data or technology allowed us to see things a little differently. That is why I am not a huge fan of analogs either. 

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it's summertime in australia so of course the sst are going to be very warm....

They are showing anomalies, not sea surface temps... so the average is already warm, but these are above even the norm.

20 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Wait... I thought the urban contingent hated snow retention because it just turns black and ugly after a half hour? That's always been the narrative.

That’s why we have to refresh it every couple of days ;-). But Central Park is nice covered in snow. But for the most of Manhattan snow just gets gross and turns crosswalks into deep water diving pools. 

Who cares about March snow? I mean seriously, in the city and south of White Plains it just melts so fast that it really is just a nuisance. We've literally had years where a foot of snow can disappear in just a few days. This is the prime of winter and I almost need a freaking jet ski to cross Fordham Road! It is literally a swamp out there. I remember in the fall people being worried that once the 'cold' pattern set it that maybe we would switch to a dry pattern. Well unfortunately even when the cold pattern set up, it still is raining. I think this winter may actually be more frustrating than 11-12 merely because when it is actually dry it is too cold to actually do things outside. Then when it is warm, like today, it is pouring rain. I am almost to the point of just preferring frigid and dry just so we can get rid of some moisture!

Sad to report that we are just about at that time where our daily average temperatures begin to rise. For most of the tri-state area this is the week (Friday for my closest station) where average temperatures begin their long, slow journey to spring and summer. Those early season forecasts of a below average temperature meteorological winter are just about done now. February would need a strong negative departure to bring DJF to below average temperatures. Fingers crossed that we can still get to average snowfall, but I am beginning to fear that call too. We will almost certainly finish the season now with below average number of days with snow cover of 1 inch or more area wide. 

HPN is running 1.4 degrees F above normal. I could see January being right around normal, but I do not think much if any below. December finished +3.2F. We will see if we can get February to cooperate. 

Father in-law in Mansfield, Ohio area reporting sleet and freezing rain. Was supposed to be all snow there.  

It seems like our temperatures are above what was modeled a few days ago no? Sitting at 35 here in southern Westchester.