JustinRP37

28 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Wouldn’t really say HRRR fail, it pointed out that the precip would backfill in the first place, most other models had no snow.

To be even more fair, not one flurry here in the Bronx on Fordham Road. Just a gross day with pointless cold. 

20 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

This seems much more realistic given what the long range has been showing and the observed patterns. I like when people do not hype just for clicks. Looks like a 'short' main event time centered roughly on the three-four weeks of mid/late January to early February. I hope they are a bit off with the snowfall, but I myself am thinking slightly below average to just average for snowfall.

Takeaway summary from the article:

"Our current expectation is for temperatures to average near or slightly above average in NYC, with near or slightly above average snowfall.The worst of the Winter will likely be observed from mid to late January into early February." 

It is easier to make long term temperature predictions than it is snowfall. You can have a much above normal temperature winter and then get one massive blizzard to be above average for a year. 

1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

 

Snow is snow I just don’t like snow in October cause it’s dangerous!

Snow is dangerous whenever it happens. Yes leaves make power grids fail, but accidents always spike when it snows regardless of if it is in October or December. Second, there will still be plenty of leaves on trees in the NYC metro even the first few weeks of November. I still have plenty of oaks and even a few maples around campus that are still green. I love snow much more than spring or fall, but let’s not pretend there isn’t always risk, hence why schools and businesses close.

15 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

My winter forecast is up!

Ballsy call given how much is starting to go against this. Then again everyone and their brother always predicts snowy and cold around here (which has been true more times than not since 2010 for snow but not for temps). However, rather than use the over used snowy terminology, let's talk days with snow cover of 1 inch or more. Suddenly when you look at the 2010s, it isn't so pretty anymore. Sure we have had many seasons with above normal snowfall, but it doesn't tend to stick around. An above normal season for snowfall means nothing to me and the ecological world if you get one blockbuster storm of 30+ inches and it melts within 5 days. We have had more years with below average snow cover while still being at or above normal with snowfall. It is one thing I have been looking at for tick-borne diseases. My call for this winter based on what I am seeing right now is above normal temps DJF, I'm thinking +2.5 (mainly December and early January) and normal to just above normal snowfall mainly from a few events (later in the season). I believe days with 1 inch or more at Central Park and other snow depth recording stations will be below average for the season. 

28 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

In fairness, that map is heavily skewed to the one 90 degree day we had.

If you took it out, temperatures would be slightly below normal because of this weekend. But that would balance out to above normal again at the end of this week. So your point is valid

 

Yes I realized that, but that is why I posted the last 30 days map later. But still no below average within an hour’s drive of NYC metro, largely because as you pointed out the above average overnight lows. We are right around to just above average which seems to be the theme lately.

18 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

You look at the small picture. Despite having the most population, the city is a small area with its own climate, especially at night. You go an hour outside the city (especially North and West) where it starts off in the 30s and 40s in most mornings now, the AN is bullshit. 

Not seeing any 'below' average within 2 hours of the city. Data are data...

17 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

You look at the small picture. Despite having the most population, the city is a small area with its own climate, especially at night. You go an hour outside the city (especially North and West) where it starts off in the 30s and 40s in most mornings now, the AN is bullshit. 

7 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

DT (WxRisk) preliminary winter forecast.

https://www.wxrisk.com/preliminary-winter-forecast-2019-20/?fbclid=IwAR3kWGEXLUDXikbzKa0BzB3HfYOQf1E5_-FZawoRQgIFqEzMz5pYB7pO2hE

These are always a crap shoot. The solar discussion I think was given way too much weight. Just kind of glossed over the fact that thus far this decade is MUCH above normal for snowfall throughout most of the region, yet the information presented showed us as being towards a solar max for a good chunk of it (especially the snowier years of 14-15. DT though is far better that JB in tempering winter forecasts. With JB it is always going to be historically cold and snowy because that is his 'narrative'. It is still very much a crapshoot I think for this winter, which DT did allude to. I would place much more money on this being a normal temperature year with normal to just below normal snowfall again for the Tri-State. Of course, lately it just takes one monster storm to put us solidly AN for snowfall, so that is a wildcard.

On another note, talk about a massive temperature shift. This was incredible. I literally flew from Miami to Maine without ever boarding an aircraft between yesterday and today. My one year old is sick with a severe cold and ear infection. It was nuts brining him to the Dr. yesterday with temps in the mid 90s and then today we will need heavier jackets.