JustinRP37

I think places would have been fine with a delay, especially in the metro area, but the snow is really coming down now. Too bad we couldn’t slow this storm down and have it go all day tomorrow now that so many places have closed. Would have been nice to get our season’s worth of snow in this one. 

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

I will be in Port St Lucie next weekend . Hopefully I dont miss anything.

With that being said now we will get a 30 incher. Just like it didn't snow when I actually built in snow days to my syllabus for the year. 

Well when you don't build snow days into the syllabus past March, you are bound to get slammed. I think tonight into tomorrow is looking great and I think we will get much closer to hitting our average snowfall for the year. However, I hope this does not change the narrative of this winter because 95% of it still sucked for our area. I am glad that we are finally cashing in, but I hate how fast March storms melt, even when it is cold.

BTW what is going on with the complaining?! 

Who is Tony? I’m relatively new here. 

I am very excited for the third straight morning with snow. Why couldn’t we have had this more throughout this winter? This is by far the best pattern we have had all winter. I do like the potential. Still looking good to get to 60-70% of our average snowfall by the end of the winter, and possibly close to average. 

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

i am sure the people in alaska will disagree...

Why would they disagree? The sun angle is literally what drives our seasons... smh. There isn't much direct sun to begin with in most of Alaska, but yes even there the dreaded sun angle gives them 'summer'.

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

It will snow in late March early April if the pattern is right. The sun angle is bullshit if the snow is light.

The sun angle is not bs. It does affect snowfall and snow cover in a big way. You can have tempers below freezing in early April, yet the snowpack can sublimate much more easily. Sure you can get a lot of accumulations, but if those storms happened during the solar minimal period of the year, you would have much great impact. By the time you get to April, it really has to snow hard to get it to stick to dark surfaces. It does not mean it cannot accumulate though. If the storm was even overnight, all the better, but it will still melt quickly. So yes it can snow in March, April, and even May if the pattern is right, but sun angle does affect it big time.

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's not a coincidence though- I firmly believe that urban heat island enhances the sun angle problem.  Neither LGA nor JFK has had any double digit snowfalls in March since 1993 either and I haven't had them in my town either.  So this is an urban area issue, once you get further away from the city then it's less of an issue.  I live in SW Nassau County but it's fairly well urbanized so we have the same problem.  Go east or north of here (as well as west of the city) by a fair amount and you wont have these issues.

 

 

Of course the city makes the sun angle a bigger problem. It is all concrete and blacktop. This is the time of year where even when it is cold a black jacket will feel much warmer because of the strengthening sun. Once you exit the solar minimum you notice it pretty quickly. Also why how in the fall it can be so much cooler in the northern burbs. 

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Tomorrow officially marks the unofficial end to significant accumulating snows on the coastal plain. Still about two weeks to go for interior sections. This is based on long term climo with considerations for anomalies such as what occurred in March 2918.

You are from the future?! Do tell me what happened in March 2918. What is the planet like? Just joking I know you mean last year. 

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

I couldn't disagree more.  If you like snow, you want it to snow all winter long.  We're only on this planet so long and every snowfall is a good one that should be appreciated.  I don't care at all about how quickly it melts - I love to track it and watch it snow and enjoy it while it's falling.  I also have followed some bad teams in my day (I'm a Rutgers fan and 30+ year season ticket holder in football and hoops, so I know from failure, lol), but I always want them to win, even if they've done badly for awhile.  It's called loyalty.  

Don't know what you a re disagreeing with, but I always pick snow. The point I was making was going into the winter it was like having a stacked team ready for a championship. It just goes to show you why actually playing the season matters. This one we can chalk it up to a loss and start looking at the signals for next winter when the time comes. Let's just hope that Mother Nature chooses the correct team next year for us. But hey, seems like whoever drafted for Virginia, DC, and norther NY and New England got a great team this year. As for the loyalty part, I can certainly understand being loyal to your team, but blind loyalty can sometimes allow management to get away with murder. Without getting to far off topic, Dolan isn't going to change the Knicks if he sells out every game and has the leagues most valuable team. Sometimes you can still be loyal but follow from a distance and not spend as much time on it. I'm enjoying being a new dad than watching every Rangers game this year, since they most likely won't make the playoffs. I still want them to win every game and will still pick up a game or two, but I won't go out of my way to make time for it. 

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

It's a pretty flimsy analogy. Watching a losing team takes time, money, effort, and intention; winter will continue to happen, or not, with zero regard for whether you've declared your participation over. I mean, sure, you could stop looking at the models and posting in winter threads, but if you're here announcing your dissatisfaction on a daily basis, it would seem you're just as invested as ever. The philosophizing just gets brutal after a while... we love snow so much that we hope it doesn't snow any more so we can be angry about not getting enough snow?

I don't know if the analogy is flimsy. Weather is a lot like sports teams. We make predictions about what will happen and then watch. Forecasting also takes time, effort, and intention (many times money too). Whether or not you watch sports, they too will also happen much like the weather. And judging by the drastic slow down in board postings this winter, I'd be willing to bet many people have not been paying as much attention anymore. Me? I love all weather, the more extreme the better. And as I pointed out above, you don't have to travel far to reach epic snows. Rent a car, take a train, Uber, etc. I'm still hoping to get up to Killington a few times this year, but it is hard with a wife that has a new job at a hospital and a 5 month old. The philosophizing about winter is just brutal because it hasn't worked out in our favor, but this year had a lot of potential.

Just now, bluewave said:

At this point, just getting out of the top 10 lowest seems like a reachable goal. NYC just needs 1.4 to pull that off.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/snowiestwintersmonths.pdf

Yes, but I was replying to getting us to normal. I don't think this year will end up being in the bottom 10 for snowfall, but hey, stranger things have happened this year. 

15 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

But you know what 88 and others,,,,,,,,,IF that is the case and we are looking to salvage this winter, I say screw that and let this winter be known for what it was for Snow luvers = a bust. At this point as much as I love snow I don't want this year to glossed over and moved out of the top 10 worst. Who wants snow that is here today and gone tomorrow in March ? I love snow as much as anyone and IF we do get a storm so be it but I am pretty much done with all the hype and expectation but more so the DISAPPOINTMENT that this winter brought. To paraphrase what I read from someone else this winter " was like rooting for your favorite sports team that came into the season with so many expectations but failed miserably and had a losing record "

I love this analogy. This winter was like the sports team that was undefeated for the first month of the season and then lost every game for a month and a half before winning a few games towards the end of the season. Then again there would still be diehard fans in that stadium to watch the last place team skate off the ice for the final time of the year cheering nonetheless. While I love sports, if my team is terrible (i.e. the Rangers this year), I still follow them, but definitely do not make time to watch every game. Life is short, spend it on things that can truly impact your life. For the life of me, I cannot understand how anyone cheers for the Knicks, like ever. Life is too short to watch a chronically failing team do nothing.

31 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The window is during the 1st week of March. Spring should be here by the middle of the month.

NYC will end up below average in the snowfall department unless a March 2001 redux( favors our area now ) happens which is slim.

 

March 2001 had 3.8 inches of snow in Central Park... That won't get us to normal. Even last year's 11.6 won't get us to normal. We would have to have a March 2015 with 18.6 inches to help us. 

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

This might be one of NYC's biggest icing events in a long time, everyone from Manhattan/Northern Queens north seems to still be below freezing and temps are barely budging

Temps are already right around 30-32 and upper 30s out by KJFK. 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I blame the large companies that are in favor of profits over environmental concerns.  New tech developed by nonprofits and universities are generally better because they aren't tied in to these pesticides.  You can see the problems with big ag and pesticides playing out across the South as the pesticides these companies have created are ravaging the environment down there.  Anyway the point is moot, since CRISPR is now replacing GMO, so the GMO era will soon be over.

 

As a scientist who has worked with CRISPR I can tell you that anything modified with this technology will be labeled GMO. CRISPR allows us to edit genes etc, it is literally the definition of a GMO. 

12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

On that note, i was reading some article about the next mass extinction and how the earth will recover with millions of new species, like has happened after each prior mass extinction. Mass extinctions are bad for us in the short term for the elimination and management of insect pests and pollination of food, but long term it will even out. 

Yes the earth will always recover, but what if we are one of the species that does not make it? Off topic though haha.

14 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

From the Feb thread “Our climate is changing. We will see more blockbuster seasons for the next few decades before we eventually reach a critical mass and temps are too warm for snow“

 

 

That isn't blaming this year on climate change. Many models though do show increasing snowfall here as the climate warms for some time. This is because we will also likely see an increase in precipitation. You cannot blame one year or one season on climate change. That is weather. Weather varies from year to year, day to day. Climate is long term averages. So if we note rapid changes over time those may be attributed to climate change. 

13 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What I am genuinely concerned with is how people are so absolutely certain with respect to global warning, reminiscent of those who were absolutely certain of our mini ice age

Because we know the different heat properties of different gasses. We know that methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, but we release far more CO2. We know that all the carbon we are releasing from fossil fuels has been buried in the earth for millions of years. All we are doing when we pump oil, gas, coal, etc. is bringing this stored carbon and burning it, releasing CO2 into the air. Yes, CO2 concentrations have been higher in the past; yes the climate has been warmer in the past. But typically climate change is very slow allowing plants, animals, and microbes the ability evolve. And humans most likely would not have been able to survive those periods either. Further, as a vector disease researcher, we are seeing the movement of certain diseases and their vectors that are not following human paths, but climate paths. But another huge issue that does not receive much media coverage, is the ever shrinking biodiversity on the planet, which might actually have far greater impacts in our lifetime than climate change. Humans have always been smart enough in the past to figure out problems though, so I do believe we will ultimately figure things out. 

Those expecting March to bring us back to normal snowfall need to temper the expectations. Most of the biggest snowfall Marches would still fail to get us to normal unless this week can over achieve. Looking at the data and the snowfall year to date, I would give this season over a 75% chance at finishing below average for snowfall. That doesn't mean it is impossible to get to or go above average, but it just isn't statistically likely. If you want to see lots of snow this season, book your trips up to Killington, Stowe, Whiteface, etc. You can be upset with the lack of snowfall in NYC metro, but this season, if you have not seen the snow you want, that is on you. A day trip north can definitely let you enjoy winter and lots of it. I would have been skiing a lot more than I have this year, but it is much harder to travel with a 5-month old. 

23 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said:

New York City is going to get a decent 2-4 tomorrow night that’s my call. Im going to pick the rgem cause it makes perfect sense to me. You guys can disagree and I’ll admit it if I’m wrong here on Monday afternoon. Fair enough?

 

 

Pick a point in New York City to the north then with that call. I don’t think JFK, Staten Island, or the Rockaways get 2-4. Maybe 1-2. 

11 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

^^ Wow. I've had to drive on interstates and other big roads a bunch of times in the snow and it's always a crap shoot whether or not you make it to where you're headed without a problem or long delay. I'd much rather be on smaller secondary or tertiary roads if I have a choice. 

People just can’t slow down these days. Raging snow and ice storm? Hmm I’ll drove ten under the 70 mph limit. People forget 4x4 is great st getting you up to speed but it does nothing for slowing you down in icy conditions. I try to avoid driving in icy conditions because of the idiots.

Okay lets tone the the end of the world scenarios. Tuesday was NOT a major winter storm. Yes the roads were icy and covered, but this was a storm that the plows kept up with really well. The problem was the timing. If this was overnight, and finished by 5AM, then at most you would have only seen delays in the morning. The problem was it start right at the tail end of the morning rush and continued throughout the day. Thus, closures were definitely the right call. But let's not make a mountain out of a mole hill here, it was 1 inch of snow and sleet and it was called correctly by many who said the upper limits would definitely not be reached. What made it dangerous was the icy conditions. Think back to 2013-14 and 2014-15 where Central Park recorded 57.4 and 50.3 inches of snow. Do you really think we would remember a 1 inch snowfall? No, we tend to remember the big ones. This storm will simply not be remembered.

36 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

While this is true the pattern this winter is for suppression with these types of systems. No one wants snow more then me, but I would be willing to bet good money this is another DC special. It wouldn’t surprise me if even they fringe.

I think Snow88 could give you a run for your money

4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

there are 3 possible events in the near future shouldn't we at least have a thread on possibly Saturday / Sunday yet ?

Saturday/Sunday looks to be a miss. I don’t think a thread is warranted for it. Even if it arrives it will be less than two inches. Then again that would be a top 3 event for the year haha. 

33 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said:

The image above could produce the big snowstorm. The eps shows other smaller events. Like 4-8. The image below is the one that would could produce multiple 4-8, the one above could be a slow moving Miller A nor’easter, and the big one. 

Theres a lot moving parts, I’m not good at checking past events but I’m sure the storm from Hawaii is the top image.

 

Since when are 4-8 inch snowfalls small events for NYC? 6+ and that is a warning level snow. I would call 4-8 a moderate snowfall for sure. People forget that NYC's average snowfall amount really is not that impressive at 25.1 inches for 1981-2010. This decade has been really impressive averaging 38.4 inches. That being said, I like what I see in the mid-range for this season trying to salvage itself and get closer to average. It will still be a big undertaking, even with a favorable pattern to get to normal. It would actually be historic. People keep saying "remember last March", well March had 11.6, and April had 5.5. Even if we repeated that, we wouldn't be at average unless February, more specifically next week, truly starts to deliver.