JustinRP37

People are putting way too much stress on one issue or another. Sure the MJO has been a problem, but let's not act like that was our ONLY problem. Other things have gone wrong too. And for the MJO, it isn't going to be in phase 8 for the first storm, and based on how models have been in the past, it might not even get to phase 8. We have seen the MJO model in the LR go horribly wrong throughout this winter, so let's not keep repeating "but the MJO".

From Upton this evening regarding next week: basically let’s get closer before we get too excited for accumulating snow. 

Systems in the extended have trended warmer for much of
this winter and it is quite possible we are already seeing signs of
this occurring in the latest model runs. High pressure builds back
into the region for the end of the week

12 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Uptown is always conservative I never listen to them literally they’re wrong more than I have been, and that tells you something I’m not even a pro. I am however passionate about weather

This is definitely not true. Upton does not go model to model. These are literally people who have devoted their life to the study of meteorology. No offense but they are not just about weather enthusiasts. They get slammed when they are conservative and they get slammed when they ‘hype’. It really is a thankless job. Further when people slam models they really do not understand the complexity of the models. I have a PhD in the sciences and what these models do and the people that build them simply amaze me. There is some complex calculus that goes into these models not to mention all the programming.

55 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There are certainly some that are towel throwing. Some of it is personal bias. My personal bias is always twords snow, when ever and as much as possible. It means thousands of dollars to me. And I’m an avid snow boarder and winters last long above 2,000’ in Vermont. March is a full on winter month there. But that’s just me. On a more serious note, I agree there are major conflicting signals. I would put the chances of us seeing snow next week at 50/50. The storm could easily follow the seasonal trend and cut. What I’m excited for is what comes after. A super high amplitude 8/1 MJO is a money signal. 

Yeah that is the other part of it. With people going on about how much they hate snow, I have to remind them that many people rely on snow for either supplemental income or their whole income. Think of the ski areas in southern NY, New England, and what not. Then all the crews that do supplemental work for winter recreation. Landscapers often need the snow for increased revenue in the 'off-season'. What part of Vermont do you go to? We like to head up to Bomoseen and then ski at Killington. Killington is always insane with the snow, even on years where we get nothing. I'd even go so far as to say early April can be a strong winter month there. Combine that with their massive snow making capabilities and you never have to worry about weather. 

8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

2018 was the 4th warmest year on record globally no wonder we get all these rainers!

https://www.axios.com/earths-5-warmest-years-have-occurred-since-2014-cc42f4bb-dbc6-40b7-b478-0ce942fab2d0.html 

The 5 warmest years have all been 2014 and we still got some amazing storms. Increased temperature = increase moisture in the atmosphere. 

54 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Are you forgetting it’s stil early February? Some of our greatest storms of all time (including some of the coldest) have been centered around presidents week. I get it people are frustrated, non more so then me. But this towel throwing is getting old. If next week works out I’m really going to have to laugh. Even Upton is a believer 

I'm not disagreeing about next week. If we can get some good snow in here then good. What I am pointing out is people saying well what about last year? I personally think late March and April snow is rubbing it in our faces of what could have been. That being said, October 31st, 2011, was still the craziest snowstorm I have ever lived through. And I don't think people are throwing in the towel yet on this season, but if next week does not pan out, then yes that ledge will be full. 

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The same people canceled winter last year in February.

Sure it can snow in late March and early April, but does that really do anything? Do you enjoy seeing snow for a few hours in spring? Honestly the reason people are throwing in the towel is because for most people merely having a snow storm isn’t enough. We want the snow to last. Enjoy real winter. Not 6 inches of snow fell overnight and it is gone by dinner time. Next week is the middle of February. Whether you want to believe it or not, the sun is heading towards the Tropic of Cancer. The sun will be higher and higher in the sky. We are now leaving our solar minimum for the year. Yes it can snow all the way to the beginning of May, but spring snow is never the same as January and early February true winter snow. 

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Some people here sound like PTSD sufferers.  We're 6 days out and the global models show somewhere from a little to some to a lot of snow early next week.  That's much better than most things we've been tracking since November.  Could it end up mostly/all rain for 95 and even inland?  Sure, but it could also end up being mostly snow or somewhere in-between, which would at least be something.  I just like being in the game.  

People do have PTSD this winter because we have “been in the game” many times this winter only for it to be rain. 

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Cool weather is great

No doubt cool weather is great. Nothing like the 50s and 60s with full sunshine. It's the wetness I don't like. That's why I love snow so much. You can go out in it and enjoy it without getting soaked. Go for a run in the rain and mist and it is gross. 

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I like cool wet springs

First person I have met that enjoys mud season. What is special about wet springs? Why not enjoy the sunshine? 

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Plenty of high octane fuel off the US East Coast if we ever see a traditional benchmark storm. Notice the big temperature rise over the last few months. The tripole pattern has been in full swing in recent years with record SST’s off the East Coast.

Exactly. I often get people asking why have we seen more substantial snowstorms if the nearby ocean is warm. I tell the the same thing, we got a lot of fuel that feeds the moisture into the system and throws it back to the coast. That is one reason I am holding out hope that we can at least approach normal snowfall levels. If we can get to above normal snowfall this year and next, then the 2010s will be the only decade on record with only 1 below average snowfall season. It is pretty spectacular actually. We just pretty much expect a lot of snow at this point.

8 minutes ago, Hitman said:

https://undark.org/article/hurricane-drone-rutgers/

 

Very cool article! Shows just what happens when you get some serious upwelling. We saw that a few times this summer too when got some upwelling and temps crashed. 

3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Those are sea surface temperatures they are not the actual sea temps. Those are measured above the water

No they are not. It is the sea surface temperature (2m) anomaly based on the mean from 1981 to 2005. That is the standard used in oceanic studies at the time. No clue why it is different than the time period we use for air temperature normals. I have a background in aquatic studies, so I know this stuff. The sea surface is what affects our weather, which is what these maps are showing. Gain depth in water and you rapidly cool. World-wide ocean temp below 1000 meters is right around 4C. The thermocline in a given area does not change much. The sea surface is what varies throughout the year. This is actually one of the coolest properties of water, and hence why northern lakes can upwell twice a year. Water is most dense at 4C, after which it becomes less dense as it crystallizes into ice. Warmer than 4C and it becomes less dense as well. Hence why our warm water floats on the colder water in the summer. 

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The waters to our east and NE are BN, which is what matters most in BDCF scenarios. 

They'll warm a bit this week but then tank again when colder weather returns.

This is from today though. The waters east and north are normal to above normal. The only below normal sea surface temps are in the mid-Atlantic right up against the coast. However, even average water temps really can deliver those nasty BDCF days. Hopefully though they won’t last as the gloomy days really get to me. 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not with those BN SSTs up and down the east coast and a very large cold source to the north. 

I'm expecting another wretched backdoor season.

Sea surface temps are not that below normal up and down the east coast. They have been fairly above average until the arctic blast.I

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

No one  believes it because winter is apparently over

We don’t believe it yet because if we trusted LR guidance this year vertbatim we should have had tons of snow already. Once we actually see things getting closer  than day 10-15, the we can start talking about it. There are still many mixed signals, so anyone claiming an end to winter or the appearance of a super snowy pattern is just showing their bias. We cannot allow our personal biases guide our analysis. You cannot discount what you don’t ‘agree’ with. The pattern will be colder but as we just saw that might not translate to snowy for our area. We’ll see. I’m hopeful but too many mixed signals still. 

19 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Got bit by a lone star tick last year; ticks are pretty much active unless there is a big freeze going on. And they can survive a wash cycle too. And watch your pets as well. I have the treated socks; some experts are not impressed with Deet and recommend the treated clothes.

Permethrin is the best I'd say for tick prevention. the lone star tick is an active host seeker, unlike the blacklegged tick (aka deer tick). But yes the ticks will be out whenever we are not having typical winter weather. Normally this time of year every night should be below freezing or right around it, thus keeping the ticks down.  However, the deep freeze without snow cover is really detrimental to ticks, so maybe we can get the polar vortex here!

Be aware, if you are hiking outside and there is and has been bare ground for awhile, then ticks are a risk. Every year we get a huge thaw like this I get the question “this can’t possibly be a tick can it?”. Yes it sure can be a tick! Anytime we are above 40 degrees for a prolonged period you can see adult ticks. Luckily, these are the largest life stage so they are easy to find before they have a chance to transmit Lyme. Keep in mind many areas across the region now have the Asian longhorned tick. We are still learning more and more about these guys, so if you see any ticks that you don’t recognize, feel free to message me, especially if you are in the Yonkers area.

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The MJO ruined it.  At this stage I would be utterly shocked if we aren’t below normal with decent snow chances 2/15-3/10 based on the MJO

But what about that tweet from Jason Furtado? The thing is I do see us getting snow but anyone saying guidance will be spot on after what we have been through this winter, I say give pause and not make definitives. At this point I’m unwilling to go much beyond a 5 day. We saw how drastically even the MJO forecast has been. What’s to say that won’t be the case again in a few days. I’m not trying to play Devil’s advocate here. 

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

It's called pattern recognition. 

 

So what was it when we all thought mid January would be snowy for the coast or that this week was going to be cold up until a few days ago?

7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

warm out their today i felt like i was suffering from heat exhaustion....

Unfortunately you can't even escape inside. So many buildings still have the heat on like it is 10 degrees outside. It was brutal in my office this morning.

2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Had to deuce this morning for frost at JFK. It was ironic given the hazy sunny morning that developed quickly.

I'm going to hope that is deice. I mean I typically drop a deuce in the morning, but usually the frost plays no roll in my deucing ability. I have heard though that rapid pressure drops can cause pregnant women to go into lab. Where do you typically fly to or everywhere?

23 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Literally everybody realizes that ratings are important. Agree with the sentiment tho.

I mean in relation to seasonal forecasts. If you look back when real money started to be able to be generated online, it was around that time that suddenly every season became historic. "Flooding spring rains" or "historic tornadoes" etc. I just see much more hysteria on long range seasonal forecasting. But believe it or not, not everyone does realize click online = money. A lot actually don't understand that. 

1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

He gives the weenies what they want to here in the beginning of the year then he bails at the end,all about $$$$$$$$$

See that is the number one thing I believe that drives these predictions in September and October of historic cold and historic snows. Many people don't realize this, but clicks = money. Nobody is going to read a headline that says "Mild winter and below average snowfall in the east". However, they will click if they see "Brutal cold and misery to control winter in the east". With that being said, we have been having a lot of historic snows of late. However, if you do look at temperatures they tell a different story overall. Winter 2014-2015 though was still about as end to end as we will get.