JustinRP37
-
Posts
1,111 -
Joined
-
Last visited
About JustinRP37
- Birthday 01/14/1986
Recent Profile Visitors
4,277 profile views
-
The GFS does have a better track record with Nor’Easters. There has been enough GFS bashing here. The model really is not THAT bad. Among the big ones they all have their strengths. But so far seeing the other models come towards the GFS has been great.
-
Just looking at the data here those are scientifically significant differences most likely. I’d have to run stats but eyeballing it looks like they are not significantly different among the big models.
-
Yes! I think that was the one. I was still in tuckahoe and it quickly went to sleet then plain rain. Then I knew we had a massive bust.
-
Sigh, reading this tonight, and it is clear even many long-time posters are just making definitive statements that just were not true. Declaring any model victorious 3.5+ days out is just wild. The EURO is NOT infallible, just like the GFS. Models are human-made and thus not perfect. Weather models are literally attempting to predict the future. There are so many components that can cause so much to go wrong. Each model does have strengths and weaknesses. The GFS does tend to do well with northeastern storms. Sure, it isn’t perfect. We have had big letdowns even within a day. I’ll never forget years ago watching the rain/snow line heading further north than any model had it, and instead of over a foot of snow, we received a few inches. We should talk about patterns and systems and try not to let emotions cloud judgements. Just judging by the tenor of the threads lately, it seems many are ready for spring. But let’s see where things go. Plenty of solutions still on the table.
-
This is a very weird winter. If it is this dry in June-August we are in trouble. As much as I love the blue bird days…
-
Don’t worry, we signed my son up for baseball again. It will rain every weekend starting in April and lasting until June. This is the Ball model and is amazingly accurate for spring.
-
I think that is right because it was before my son was born.
-
Very true, but it wasn’t that long ago we had that record breaking cold snap in mid March even down to the coast with night temps dipping to the single digits. I remember because I was in Vermont and opted for a spa day with my wife since it was in the single digits with below zero wind chills. That was an insane March. I’d have to look at my photo album for when that was.
-
Jesus Christ some people are unbearable lately on here. I get that many are sick of winter but wishing it away isn’t going to work. Why, suddenly, are so many people saying winters end in mid February in our region? That is statistically and categorically false. On a probability standpoint we just past the most snowy portion of winter. It doesn’t completely drop off. Growing up St. Patty’s day really felt like the end of winter with ski areas turning more to slush and yards melting. I’d be very very shocked if we put up a goose egg the rest of winter.
-
Been reading some about the incoming El Niño and some good researchers are saying this looks like it could lead to 2026-2028 being really warm especially in the summer. I do think that with as dry as the whole US has been that once we turn warm we will be pretty hot. I am not ready for ski season to end, so all this talk of everyone being done with winter isn’t accurate. Plus we have the Winter Olympics going on!
-
Ahh no. Sun is no where near August 10th. We still have more darkness than daylight. We are still in November sun. 6 weeks to the equinox. Sorry to burst your bubble.
-
Advanced degrees are different. A bachelor’s it is incredibly difficult to fail out of if you keep showing up. Masters and PhDs and MDs do have a lot not mae it for various reasons. But the sad thing is we are seeing very few males in STEM. I have very few males in many of my classes now.
-
Exactly. Sadly nowadays even a degree doesn’t mean much. It is very hard to “fail” someone out of a degree these days. There is so much “support” to help even the weakest minds through. Failing at the basics while still earning a science degree is very much achievable now.
-
I’m a skier and also love getting outside once spring gets going. However, I honestly think April is the worst month of the year. Mist, grey, warm to cold and back again, mud, and flies… better to go out to Arizona to golf in April.
-
I think the CPC climate maps cause confusion for many. They are simply probabilities and should not be red and blue. People seem to think they are actual magnitudes. “Oh look dark red for this area, it’s going to torch!” Meanwhile the forecast is for 38-42 or a touch above. Same thing in July then it looks dark blue for 90-100% chance of below normal and the highs are 80-84. Below normal but just by a touch. They should also have a corresponding map that would show the estimated departure range. Just a thought since I see those tossed around a lot.
