Save the itchy algae!

I’m surprised no one has commented on the 00z gfs. That’s quite a storm signal around that 18th~ish time frame, keeps popping up!


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It looks like this is pretty much it then the storm is done, anyone else seeing something different?


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4C here in Huntsville/Madison. Roads have been treacherous all week since all our precip came down as sleet, but today the roads are kinda sorta passable (those are meteorological terms, right?). 
 
Our precip is forecasted to be rain, with the cold arriving quickly enough freeze the wet streets-wéve got a lot of wet, mushy ice that would be fine except that everything is supposed to freeze. 
 
I'm very interested to see to the forecasts/models handle the existing snowpack in TN. 
 
precip is currently virga.

OHX Morning Discussion...

000FXUS64 KOHX 161218AFDOHXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Nashville TN618 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024...New AVIATION....SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)Issued at 231 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024The mid state now has a legitimate snow pack and this will need tobe taken into account in terms of dealing with our upcoming tempfcst. Looks like 4-8 inches of snow depth is rather common placearea wide. For now though its a very cold morning with current tempsholding in the 10-15 degree range.Clouds are still in place but we will get some clearing by afternoonfrom nw to se. It`s not going to warm up much however as we have twothings working against it. For one, the snowpack will of course actto reflect much of the afternoon solar radiation that we finallystart to get. Secondly, strong thermal troughing will be buildingour way with those 850 mb temps dropping toward -15C by thisafternoon. So, will undercut the NBS numbers by a few degrees. Lookslike highs today will reach just the 14F to 19F range.Looks like a bone chilling cold night ahead. By Wednesday morningthe sfc high will reach MS with ridging extending northeastward.Clear skies and the snow pack will help send our temperatures downto close to zero for many locations. Following this, theWed afternoon temperatures will finally warm back up into the 20s.For the wind chill advisory, latest apparent t grids suggest thatthe advisory shall continue. It will therefore remain in effectuntil 9am Wednesday morning. Though winds will be on the lighterside, the temperatures themselves will be cold enough to producesome negative wind chill values. This is due to the 8-10 mph windsthat are expected at times.Moving on, another storm system will take shape near the Arklatexregion late Wednesday night. The sfc low will stay to our south andthere is some n-s inversion with the system. Hence, there will besome waa trying to kick in on Wednesday and into Wednesday night.However, when taking into account the expected wet bulbs at avariety of levels, the recovery looks a touch overdone by themodels. That said, for now, it appears that this next system will bemostly snow north and rain and snow south. We could also experiencesome IP activity across the south as well but for now will avoid theinclusion. The system right now does not appear to be all thatstrong but some light snow accumulations cannot be ruled out.Perhaps an inch or so of snow will be possible Thursday intoThursday night, mainly north and Plateau.&&.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 231 AM CST TueJan 16 2024In the extended forecast, another arctic front will be on the heelsof the Thursday system. Lows by Friday morning will be back down tonear 20 for many areas with just a small warmup during the day.Adding to the chill will be some light snowfall that could continueinto the day. The rest of the extended looks dry but very cold. Lookfor single digits for lows into the weekend with moderating tempsand highs near 40F by Monday.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)Issued at 618 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024Light snow showers should end SRB/CSV by 16/14Z-16/15z. InitialIFR/MVFR ceilings SRB/CSV will become exclusive MVFR after thru17/00Z. Initial VFR ceilings will continue to prevail CKV/BNA/MQYwith gradual ceiling degradation CKV to MQY 16/23Z-17/01Z.Errosion of ceilings at all terminals should occur no later than17/03Z as high pressure influences surface and aloft strengthenacross our area. Initial sfc sustained NW winds around 10ktsshould slowly back to S as 17/12Z approaches.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Nashville      18   2  28  15 /   0   0   0   0Clarksville    16   4  28  15 /   0   0   0   0Crossville     15  -2  25  12 /   0   0   0   0Columbia       18  -1  27  13 /   0   0   0   0Cookeville     15  -2  24  13 /   0   0   0   0Jamestown      15  -2  25  12 /   0   0   0   0Lawrenceburg   17  -1  26  13 /   0   0   0   0Murfreesboro   17  -2  27  12 /   0   0   0   0Waverly        17   2  28  15 /   0   0   0   0&&.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-VanBuren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.&&$$SHORT TERM...21LONG TERM....21AVIATION.....JB Wright

This will be a deceptive storm on record books. 
Tys has I believe 3 inches as the official measurement and Tri a trace. But that won't be reflective of this storm for climate purposes. 

Just finished driving home (Farragut) from Florida. I am super tired lol.

Anyway, it was chilly all the way down. Around 60 at the beach, mid-upper 40’s near the fl/ga border, around 40 in Atlanta area, started seeing salt on roads around Lake Altoona area temp 38, temp was 34 around tunnel road in far n Georgia and chatty, ooltewah was where I saw light dust on some cars in car lots temp 34, didn’t see first flakes until around Cleveland and some brine, significant difference around sweetwater/philadelphia temp 30 and most everything covered except interstate, made it to house where there’s about an inch of snow-maybe a little less and everything covered, temp 27. Going to read the updated nws forecast then going to sleep


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It has almost completely stoped hear in Knoxville.  We have about a half inch.  Hopefully something changes or we are going to way underperform.  

Skin that smoke wagon!  Go for it!

So are we just gun shy on starting a thread? Western parts of the forum are just a few days out.


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Testing…
..I hate Tapatalk


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2 hours ago, Blizzard22 said:

I don't care how cold it is in March, it is always difficult to get snow especially in the lower elevations. 

Since I moved to the valley in 2015 March has been my second snowiest month on average.

We’re over an inch here in Farragut.  It sticks to everything, it’s an icy mess.  

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I will be glad to share some GFS/GEFS stuff, but we probably should have everyone sign a waiver before viewing them.  LOL.  The 18z CFSv2 says, "What January thaw?"

I signed that waver when I created my account.  Spill it Carvers!

I know it won’t happen but there’s a major hurricane approaching Florida in the long range GFS.  
 

F* that mess.

Yeah I’m just going to hold off with my thoughts for a while,  things were looking good until I opened my mouth then next thing you know everything went poof.

The gfs has been consistently showing a tropical signature the end of Halloween week.  Given it’s placement and climatology I wouldn’t be surprised to see some unusual weather in the nov 7-10th range.

8 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Yeah @Save the itchy algae! it'll be windy through the Mountains this weekend. I think 15-30 mph in the Valley; mostly 15-20 mph with G30 mph. Should (I hope) be too early to screw up mountain leaves. 

Then one can check rainfall forecasts at WPC or NHC. I hate what's happening in Cuba; Ian acts like no land is there. I'm also quite concerned for Florida. 

Just got back from prepping the other home for the storm, the Floridians don’t care in my area…was the only one sandbagging.  With the track shifting south east they may take it more seriously now.

The locals are saying Ian is a Hurricane Charley clone.

Curious what Hurricane Ian does to the area.  Historically Tropical systems have a way of setting in fall some years but summer has already largely eased off any way.  Could be some blustery days ahead for higher elevations.  

On 9/13/2022 at 8:51 PM, Daniel Boone said:

Right with you brother. Very depressing. I'm rooting for tropical activity or something to throw a monkey wrench into forecasted pattern. 

Oops

I’m supposed to be driving to the beach on Friday but there’s no way I’m missing this storm.  Wife will hate me but Florida can wait.

19 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

They still trying to figure out how their dusting to an inch ended up 2-4” in Knox Co.


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Apparently TYS only recorded 0.1” yesterday.  I call shenanigans.

5 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

In Farragut we had a light dusting then got dry slotted for a bit.  It then began to rain about an hour ago where it melted everything.  It has been drizzling but now it seems more like sleet and maybe some rain, no flakes.

I spoke too soon, we’re back to a snow /sleet mix.  Feels colder.

In Farragut we had a light dusting then got dry slotted for a bit.  It then began to rain about an hour ago where it melted everything.  It has been drizzling but now it seems more like sleet and maybe some rain, no flakes.

17 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

36/24/36


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Only if she 5’3”

7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Yes. Looks like it’s in a good position in Mississippi to Alabama but rides a little NE to north Georgia. A ideal track would be from Birmingham to Atlanta or something around that area. 50 miles south of where it is would be really nice


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The current look isn’t bad to me, it’s just knowing the dreaded nw shift always happens right at the end that’s tough.