Shocker0

12z NAM coming in pretty dry

Crossville is right off I-40, and on Exit 311 there is a little campground area literally right on the interstate with cabins that's very pretty in the snow. It always snows more there than in town as well it seems. But from Atlanta it will probably send you through backroads to get there unless you take 75 to 40 which is a little longer. But for a straight shot north of Atlanta on I75, John's area looks great as well. Both places will be about 3.5 hours from ATL

It says 1-3" for Crossville lol. They are usually the worst by far in my experience. My buddy checked it in the last big snow here and and it called for 6-10" in Batesville, AR where he lives (it was the only thing calling for anything close to that there) and he ended up with a few sleet pellets that never covered the ground fully.

Even more likely if OHX releases a WWA for 1-3" like last February 7th here when we got 5-8". All the models showed 6-7" consistently leading up to that one as well.

The 12z RDPS is somehow even bigger than any run so far :O 16" near Jamestown.

Surprisingly I think it has a couple times over the past few years. I believe during our ice storm on the Plateau in 2015, Knoxville and East Tennessee mostly received snow. But yeah, I'm hoping it's not a sleet storm here the way it's starting to look on the models.

What's up with the very light amounts straight through Crossville and even north to Oneida on some models? Warm nose from hell? GFS shows nothing for central and south Cumberland but shows 5" on the far east and west parts of the county.

Good snow shower moving through Crossville right now.

Took a pic at the campground today. The little stream that runs through there is normally 2-3 feet wide and now is closer to 60ft wide in spots. I was told it was even higher earlier today but had gone down some by this afternoon. Supposed to get around another 1/2" tonight (first pic is how it normally looks).

Rain rain rain and lots of it this week NW of Crossville. Not sure how much but the radar has been yellow or red almost constantly over the house every time I've looked. Schools were a two hour delay on Tuesday I believe, but this morning looks even worse and I think they were on time. Some ponding in roadways, and a THP cruiser flipped on I-40 this morning, but luckily the elevation seems to help the runoff here a lot. Wouldn't mind a warmup and some decently clear days now that any precip deficit has surely been erased, if snow is out of the picture.

Very informative, thanks! I will say the hilly/bumpy looking areas on the topographic map that Holston made, are not really hilly looking from the Plateau, since the "peaks" flatten off to be level with the elevation of Monterey Therefore you don't really see any mountainous looking areas in Monterey as you would from the bottom of the plateau in Cookeville. So the other areas on the map are actually just dips (or hollows)? I guess, where the elevation is around 1100-1300ft while Monterey sits closer to 1900'. Not sure if this would change the scenario you mentioned any though. It has definitely become more interesting to me since I started driving around more when it snows and seeing how different it is from one location to the next here.

Agree, Monterey sits at the same elevation as the town of Crossville but isn't uncommon for them to get double the snow in some years. About 15 miles NW of Crossville though.

This is a rough estimation of how snow is typically distributed here based on my limited experiences driving around the western part of the county. I know the map is extremely rough, but based on this overlay I wouldn't be surprised if Holston's theory is correct. On the other hand, Jamestown, 30 miles north of me, and around 1750ft, seems to get even more snow than these areas do a fair amount of the time, but I hardly ever am up there so I can only go off pictures/measurements. I know Jamestown is very close to the very edge of the Western part of the Plateau so my theory of the snow smacking into the plateau before weaker amounts spread east could be a thing. Oneida and John's area of Campbell County east of Jamestown seem to get similar snow amounts to Jamestown though, so maybe not. However, traveling just 10 miles south of Jamestown to Grimsley, you almost always see the amounts halved sometimes from what Jamestown gets, despite Grimsley having almost identical elevation. I know in Crossville, the further you go east, the less snow there is during any upslope events or where the atmosphere is ringing out whatever moisture is left, but it doesn't seem to be as significant from Jamestown and eastward. Renegade Mountain in Crab Orchard, east of Crossville, is around 3000ft, and I'm quite sure the Mayland/Monterey/Pleasant Hill areas in the western part of the county average more annual snowfall despite the elevation difference (I might be wrong but I rarely see any snow pictures from there and they when I do they seem more comparable to the in town areas of Crossville). Anyway, on this very ugly map, I've shaded roughly these varying colors based on who seems to typically get the most snow: No shading - never really traveled through these areas 1. White-ish shading - Isolated locations that seem to get noticeably more snow than other areas typically 2. Yellow - Second snowiest areas. There may be no snow in purple areas, and 1" in the red, while the yellow areas have 2-4 inches. I have noticed this when traveling west on Plateau Rd, and turning right toward Mayland on Highway 70 North. Suddenly it's like the snow just starts out of nowhere there and adds up quick. 3. Red - Third snowiest areas. Usually tend to get the same as the yellow areas but during smaller events it seems like the yellow areas get more fairly consistently. 4. Purple - fourth most snowfall. Pretty wide brush through central Cumberland and Southern Fentress on this one. 5. Blue areas - where you really can see there be nothing on the ground and 2+ inches in other places to the west in just short drives. This includes Crossville proper. The areas west of Monterey probably should be a different color because they get even less snow since the plateau drops off there, but I put them blue anyway. I need to make a better map but the funnel effect really could be a thing in this case. Specific places I've noticed consistently heavier snow than other areas would be the south side of Cumberland Cove (just west of the Mayland text) at about 1990ft. And then the Pleasant Hill area in general, especially driving down Mayland Rd (almost exactly where Holston's arrow points). Then there are a couple of areas on Bud Tanner Rd east of Mayland Rd and only at around 1800ft that seem to get a lot of snow that seems unexplainable compared to the surrounding spots.

Honestly, that arrow south of Monterey does correspond where most of the heavier snowfall accumulations occur during the majority of events (especially the smaller or unexpected ones like last night). I'll try to draw a highlighted map around roads/areas I've traveled that seem to overperform almost every time in these situations and post it here. I am hoping to keep traveling through the same areas when it snows to see the pattern. There is one particular area in Cumberland Cove (SE of Monterey right in the path of your arrow) that the second picture I posted above is from that has had noticeably more snow than areas 1/2 mile away the last two times I've been through there and I find that very interesting with the elevation being fairly consistent with the areas around it (maybe 50ft higher).

Yeah, I have started riding around here when it snows more to try to see a pattern in it, and there honestly seems to be one generally. It's a sure bet that Pleasant Hill and Mayland will almost always receive more snow than the rest of the county unless it's just a big system that stays on the eastern or southern county edges. The confusing part for me is that our area is a lot flatter than yours, and these patches of deeper snow that appear here don't seem to be elevation driven or anything. Most of the spots I saw this morning with big differences were pretty close to each other and almost equal elevation. There was one spot in particular where the entire road had a light dusting, but 1/4 mile in one little area at the same elevation, the ground had around an inch. It's fascinating to me after driving around the last couple snows, though. I can definitely see the eastern half of Cumberland County wondering why there's no school a lot of days, while the far Western areas are wondering how other days they DO have school despite snow on the ground and slick spots around. I'm sure your area is probably similar with your area getting more snow than La Follette usually. I wouldn't be surprised if some isolated areas on the far western side of the county (Pleasant Hill/Mayland) right before the Plateau drops off have received 2 feet of snow this winter. I also wouldn't be surprised if areas around Westel (Southeast Cumberland) have gotten less than 10" total for the year. I need get a dash camera and drive around after a snow when I'm able because since I've done that a couple times this year I have been amazed at how difference even 1/2 mile makes here when it snows, even without any noticeable elevation changes. If it's like that here where it's relatively flat, I figure in eastern TN with the valley's and ridges that it would be even more pronounced.

Couple of pics from this mornings travels in Western Cumberland. Some areas would be white with heavy little snow showers coming down, and others a couple football fields away there would be just a very light dusting almost like frost. The varying little climates around here are wild.

Light snow with an unexpectedly white ground here NW of Crossville at 330am CT

Not sure if this article has ever been posted here, but it's an interesting list. Look at #1 I'd say the list is skewed a bit since the winters in the 70's were probably the snowiest on record by average for most of the area, but still is interesting to see what areas have received more or less snow since that decade. https://stacker.com/stories/4020/how-snowfall-levels-have-changed-across-100-us-cities

I believe most or all of East TN dipped below 0 on January 28 of that year. Or between the 24th and 29th at least.

I only need it to move about 30 miles north in 15 days to be extra happy. Bonus points if it jogs 60 miles though .

This is a weird one. At MM 306 or wherever the salt trucks get their salt on I40, everything was white including the trees, but 0.5 miles parallel (West) on Highway 70 there was nothing on the ground. Elevation is exactly the same too. No snow in Monterey either. Must've just been a random flake-storm there.

Radar usually doesn't pick these up around us. We are pretty far from the radar sites and I think the atmosphere is just squeezing out whatever moisture is left.

A "thick" dusting on I40 between 305-311 MM and then it just seems to shut off in every direction after that.

We had some semi-moderate snow here but small flakes (surprising to see snow after so much freezing rain in the western part of the state). A very very light dusting now in Crossville

Cookeville is 41 right now and Monterey is 54. 18 degree drop in Cookeville in the last hour.