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purduewx80

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Everything posted by purduewx80

  1. purduewx80
    Just noticed the date on this thread is incorrect, should be the 8th (today) if that isn't already obvious.
  2. purduewx80
  3. purduewx80
    Forecast soundings are impressive this afternoon during peak heating. Surface-based CAPE, lapse rates approaching 9C/km. This front should produce this afternoon.
  4. purduewx80
    yeah, quite a thick layer of clouds is probably the culprit.
  5. purduewx80
    The 12Z ECWMF is increasing the odds for record warmth this weekend, with a broader and drier warm sector around here. There are sizeable trends in the track of the low through the Midwest, with the main frontal forcing for precip now shifted farther N and W of NYC. Low-level flow is more southwesterly, which may allow temperatures to approach 70 Sunday once the front clears.
  6. purduewx80
  7. purduewx80
    Will Wednesday's squalls be more impressive than tomorrow night's snow? Stay tuned...
  8. purduewx80
    Yeah, would like to see the front slow down and/or flow a little more westerly to get the 65+ it is showing.
  9. purduewx80
    NYC records are 63 and 66 on the 11th/12th and EWR's are 66 and 67, respectively. I still think fog/stratus could keep temps a bit cooler than what it's showing. This will probably change, but the ECMWF suggests convection along the front Saturday night may tap into a 65KT+ low level jet. Could be some damage on LI if that verifies.
  10. purduewx80
    No, it does not. It has 60s at EWR/NYC Sat-Sun and Tuesday.
  11. purduewx80
    coming ashore this morning but may not be fully sampled until 00Z tonight.
  12. purduewx80
    Tuesday evening's setup is going to be sensitive to its convective nature. Steep lapse rates progged between 750-450mb. Also beware the fast flow progged the next 48h, another 150KT+ jet will be screaming across the country, so additional swings in the position of the low and resulting snow are likely.
  13. purduewx80
    In my opinion the pattern is too wet/humid to get that in NYC proper. Maybe the DC area and inland southern NJ. As others have mentioned, this is going to be a foggy/wet pattern for most of us.
  14. purduewx80
    I doubt the SE escapes historic warmth but I agree around here. Our + anomalies may be strongly skewed by above normal low temps. Overall this is a gradient pattern with frequent snow events in NNE, SE Canada and way upstate, while we see soaker after soaker. 2020 starting off very 2010s so far.
  15. purduewx80
    seems like every year he hints at March '93 #eyeroll
  16. purduewx80
    half inch hail on mPing NW of Trenton; VIL on the stronger cells supports this
  17. purduewx80
    Impressive storm out there w/ tops to 40,000'. Think some of these could affect the city ~3-5PM.
  18. purduewx80
    but but but the day 12 GFS!!
  19. purduewx80
    this 100%. Seems like a few members of the board were feeling the xmas blues and drinking in their basements last night.
  20. purduewx80
    That impressive system in the Southeast is affecting weather around here too. Check out the gravity waves (aka transverse banding) over PA, leading to multiple reports of severe turbulence by large aircraft this evening. This has been happening on the northern fringes of the upper low the past couple of days.
  21. purduewx80
    It's cool to see the lower altitude haze in the distance. This was evident in the city today, too. Despite how dry it is, aerosols are trapped near the surface due to the strong inversion and stagnant high pressure in place.
  22. purduewx80
    The 1.0” of snow at EWR yesterday tied the record for the date. lol Visible satellite is telling this morning. It’ll be interesting to see if the sun melts any of the snow streaks in the region later today.
  23. purduewx80
    Vis as low as 800’ at LGA so far. https://rvr.data.faa.gov/cgi-bin/rvr-status.pl
  24. purduewx80
    Yes, most of it will. I'm talking about the portion of the squall circled here. There will be a longer duration of snow in a narrow corridor due to orientation of the line and cell motion being similar.
  25. purduewx80
    The orientation of the line may allow it to train for more than 10 min for the Newark area, SI, Brooklyn and points south - could see 1-2" in a narrow corridor somewhere in there. Either way, 10 min of whiteout conditions is enough to put roads and the local airports at a stand still.
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