Albedoman

we need some decent rain today, otherwise it looks pretty sparse the next week or so. The 70-80 degree temps with these blistering santa ana type chinook winds have dried out the soils pretty damn well the last few days. To add injury to insult, the leafing out of trees now is sucking the living crap out of available  soil moisture again, thus the local stream base flows are way below normal for this time of the year in the LV.

please god no more winds. we have had our share the past 6 months. So many limbs  in the yard the last few days. Wind chills today were also brutal for April.

3 hours ago, RedSky said:

Familiar with the Macungie mountain I bet Albedo is real close

 

 The south mountairange and bear creek ski resort elevation makes a huge difference in these type of events, Alburtis zip is closest  to the elevation of Bear Creek -- 1500 ft +  I a escaped with 1.5 in  up on the ridges  2+ is easily attainable at nearly 1500 ft.

for those who have not seen snow south of the LV the last 45 days- here is what it looks like. LOL This was after 8 AM and everything was starting to melt after being covered except the streets

less than .5 of snow. Flakes this morning were like pancakes. Received needed rain however 1.10 in. Going into the next week with much needed moisture for tree leaf out.  Feel good that the drought is going bye bye if this keeps up by the end of the month. Just bring on the 70's now. Want to turn off the heater. Cloudy 40-50  degree days  raise the utility bills for sure.

The precip was really  beneficial to the Little Lehigh Creek watershed. I just received my first USGS gauge flood alert on the Little Lehigh at RT 100 this year.  My personal alerts are calibrated to when the stream jumps out of it banks, which visibly it has. Once it gets to around 4.5 ft, Spring Creek Rd is completely underwater. The USGS staff from state college  and myself have successfully calibrated this new telemetry digital gauge over the last 2-3 years for issuance of flash/flood warnings in our area. Thats why I am called the drought guy.   LOL

29 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

I ended up with 1.71” last night in the heavy showers and t-storm band but the ABE airport only had 0.18”. That was a sharp cut off! The northern Lehigh Valley certainly has gotten screwed over the last couple weeks, but I feel fortunate to get in the action last night. Only 45F this morning with some drizzle.


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1.35 here in LMT. First time since New Years day  that I have seen the Little Lehigh at bank-full and running muddy this morning. Not a good day to trout fish for sure. The headwaters of the Little Lehigh finally received some decent precip.  Put a real nice dent in the drought conditions for the entire watershed. Waiting for the snow and graupel  for tomorrow. 

24 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

0z HRRR gets frozen precip down to the Lehigh Valley tomorrow night…

dusting of snow with graupel a good bet as cold air advection works in. Best chance of frozen precip since Feb LMAO

39 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Ron Swanson my hero

Oh look here comes a red blob on radar 

the thundershower I hoped for.  maybe more later

32 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Or stronger vodka cause what I'm drinking ain't helping for shit

  Lagavulin. Neat. Clear alcohols are for rich women on diets.” The story goes that when coming up with characters for his hit sitcom 'Parks and Recreation', creator Michael Schur snuck in one autobiographical detail into the grouchy but loveable protagonist, Ron Swanson – his love of Lagavulin whisky.

10 minutes ago, RedSky said:

3" for the week and a wet day tomorrow I wish it would stop raining

click bait. 

I am hoping for a t- shower later tonight. Radar  down sw near MD looks promising right now but the stable air will most likely kill any good chance of instability

well, I am clearly disappointed that we missed out on all the significant rain again this morning. The fronts hanging up over the mid south  and to the NW of our area just will not allow any GOA moisture to get up here. Light rain showers are not going to cut it for ending this drought.  Sundays t-storms rains chances with heavy rain are dying as I write.  The dry cold winds also return with a vengeance.  We are screwed from Monday on with Tuesday feeling like winter and the heater on full blast. Would not be surprised to see flurries/graupel in the LV.  I am tired of being teased.  Incredible how the Memphis TN area nearly gets a foot of rain and we cannot even squeeze out a popcorn fart of decent precip.

9 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Have you ever given a lecture concerning droughts?

not yet. Most of my seminars/lectures that I have given in the past 20+ years deals with stormwater planning , local flooding issues, sinkholes in Karst topography, zoning and municipal planning and naturalization of best management stormwater practices with the EPA, PADEP, USGS and county planning commissions. My drought experience comes from living in S Calfornia /brush fires/mudslides for 10-15 years

Judging science fair right now. Ai enso modeling in my section along with using drones as a weather ballon for getting profies with sensors

14 hours ago, LVLion77 said:

It’s amazing how the lawns greened up and the trees budded overnight.


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Yep, that is what i said would happen  before it rained

most  areas around me have received above 1.25+ in of needed rainfall. The areas in Northern LV received less than a half an inch. The jackpot area was basically south of I-78 

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Something that didn't fall apart on approach for the first time in i don't know when

I agree.  The stratiform moderate rain falling right now with embedded thunder is the first true dent in our persistent drought since last summer.  The ground is taking every bit of it for once as the the soils were not frozen.  3-5 more events like this in the next 30 days will end the drought conditions. The base flows will come in the creeks in the morning.

wahoo, finally, some thundershowers and moderate/heavy rain at times Not a gully washer or a drought buster, but I will take it. The nice part is the thundershowers. Lighting means extra nitrogen in the rain which will green up the trees and grass real nice and quickly. All the yellow and brown grass will be gone by the end of week. The trees will really bud  by the end of the week too.

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Drops coming down again, I think the drought is over. Phils season starts in 3 days. Pretty sure heavy duty thunderstorms, flood alert warnings, maybe Katrina like to follow?

 

 

 

can i smoke what you are smoking? LOL.NO heavy precip until temps in the mid to upper 70's. No warm temps, no convection.

Wopee drought getting worse. Less than a half of an inch all week. Fire conditions getting real bad with dry underbrush. When will padep noaa wake up?  Extreme  drought folks. By the way, i warned you about the  sinkholes  i-80 closed from sinkholes. Now i-287 has sinkholes. Drought monitor map is bs right now. They need to look at palmer indices

49 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Good to hear!

just in time to dry out the soil profile by mid afternoon.

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Don't poke the drought guy lol

 

bring it on. How about a severe t storm warning to boot? Still waiting for that 30 in snowfall event to hit us in few weeks  LMAO

3 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

12z GFS seems to be on its own for next weekend. It has 30s and 40s with a SECS the following Tuesday. Meanwhile all the other models flex the SE ridge and get us into the 70s.

the progressive LR  patterns we ar in are not even worth looking at at this time for the GFS model. Look at a 3-5 day models instaead- more reliable

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

As the old saying goes, if the football field is muddy, then the dry period is nearing its end.

Good example was the last week of October 2007, the local high school football field was muddy, and the dry period ended soon thereafter.

By the way, here is the lastest drought monitor from NWS Mount Holly: 

drought is not measured by the moisture of the first 3-6 inches of topsoil. It is measured by groundwater elevations and base flows of streams. WE have a long way to go to break this drought.  Like I said in my posts, .25 in rains are good for greening grass only. However 40 mph winds after tonights rain will dry the surface by tomorrow evening. Elevated fire risks for the weekend if the winds keep up.  The dry period has been ongoing since August 18 th, 2024 the last day of a two inch rain for the LV. Since then, it has been a desert.