Albedoman

10 minutes ago, RedSky said:

3" for the week and a wet day tomorrow I wish it would stop raining

click bait. 

I am hoping for a t- shower later tonight. Radar  down sw near MD looks promising right now but the stable air will most likely kill any good chance of instability

well, I am clearly disappointed that we missed out on all the significant rain again this morning. The fronts hanging up over the mid south  and to the NW of our area just will not allow any GOA moisture to get up here. Light rain showers are not going to cut it for ending this drought.  Sundays t-storms rains chances with heavy rain are dying as I write.  The dry cold winds also return with a vengeance.  We are screwed from Monday on with Tuesday feeling like winter and the heater on full blast. Would not be surprised to see flurries/graupel in the LV.  I am tired of being teased.  Incredible how the Memphis TN area nearly gets a foot of rain and we cannot even squeeze out a popcorn fart of decent precip.

9 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Have you ever given a lecture concerning droughts?

not yet. Most of my seminars/lectures that I have given in the past 20+ years deals with stormwater planning , local flooding issues, sinkholes in Karst topography, zoning and municipal planning and naturalization of best management stormwater practices with the EPA, PADEP, USGS and county planning commissions. My drought experience comes from living in S Calfornia /brush fires/mudslides for 10-15 years

Judging science fair right now. Ai enso modeling in my section along with using drones as a weather ballon for getting profies with sensors

14 hours ago, LVLion77 said:

It’s amazing how the lawns greened up and the trees budded overnight.


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Yep, that is what i said would happen  before it rained

most  areas around me have received above 1.25+ in of needed rainfall. The areas in Northern LV received less than a half an inch. The jackpot area was basically south of I-78 

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Something that didn't fall apart on approach for the first time in i don't know when

I agree.  The stratiform moderate rain falling right now with embedded thunder is the first true dent in our persistent drought since last summer.  The ground is taking every bit of it for once as the the soils were not frozen.  3-5 more events like this in the next 30 days will end the drought conditions. The base flows will come in the creeks in the morning.

wahoo, finally, some thundershowers and moderate/heavy rain at times Not a gully washer or a drought buster, but I will take it. The nice part is the thundershowers. Lighting means extra nitrogen in the rain which will green up the trees and grass real nice and quickly. All the yellow and brown grass will be gone by the end of week. The trees will really bud  by the end of the week too.

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Drops coming down again, I think the drought is over. Phils season starts in 3 days. Pretty sure heavy duty thunderstorms, flood alert warnings, maybe Katrina like to follow?

 

 

 

can i smoke what you are smoking? LOL.NO heavy precip until temps in the mid to upper 70's. No warm temps, no convection.

Wopee drought getting worse. Less than a half of an inch all week. Fire conditions getting real bad with dry underbrush. When will padep noaa wake up?  Extreme  drought folks. By the way, i warned you about the  sinkholes  i-80 closed from sinkholes. Now i-287 has sinkholes. Drought monitor map is bs right now. They need to look at palmer indices

49 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Good to hear!

just in time to dry out the soil profile by mid afternoon.

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Don't poke the drought guy lol

 

bring it on. How about a severe t storm warning to boot? Still waiting for that 30 in snowfall event to hit us in few weeks  LMAO

3 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

12z GFS seems to be on its own for next weekend. It has 30s and 40s with a SECS the following Tuesday. Meanwhile all the other models flex the SE ridge and get us into the 70s.

the progressive LR  patterns we ar in are not even worth looking at at this time for the GFS model. Look at a 3-5 day models instaead- more reliable

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

As the old saying goes, if the football field is muddy, then the dry period is nearing its end.

Good example was the last week of October 2007, the local high school football field was muddy, and the dry period ended soon thereafter.

By the way, here is the lastest drought monitor from NWS Mount Holly: 

drought is not measured by the moisture of the first 3-6 inches of topsoil. It is measured by groundwater elevations and base flows of streams. WE have a long way to go to break this drought.  Like I said in my posts, .25 in rains are good for greening grass only. However 40 mph winds after tonights rain will dry the surface by tomorrow evening. Elevated fire risks for the weekend if the winds keep up.  The dry period has been ongoing since August 18 th, 2024 the last day of a two inch rain for the LV. Since then, it has been a desert. 

gfs shit the bed already. 2-3 feet of snow gone -----That model needs to be shelved until we have a better non-progressive weather pattern. The 30 mph+  Santa Ana type winds return on Friday immediately drying out any rain we get on Thursday.  No water recharge into the ground except the first couple of inches of topsoil. Again, this .50 inch of rain is great for greening the yards and for spring bulbs but the groundwater table for water supply and base flows for the limestone streams are falling real quick as the trees start to bud.  The leaves will start to open in 3-4 weeks and then we are in real trouble as the uptake of any residual moisture in the soil is gone. NOAA and PADEP must issue a drought emergency for the LV before the water authorities do it on their own with rationing. The weather discussion  keeps saying beneficial rains are coming-- just like the 3 ft of snow on the GFS model but actually  .25 to .50  in rains are not really beneficial when we have drying wind advisory events right  behind the fronts. 

NJ is not the only area of the MT Holly region. The LV has not received a single 2 in rain event since August 18, 2024 and only a couple of single rainfall events barely over an inch since then .  We are going on below normal precip for 9 months now. Folks, that is a hell of drought.  The 2-3 inches of rain in NJ this past weekend killed the existing drought conditions along SE NJ with their sandy soils and above avg snowfall so far this year. Lets start hearing more about the million + people that live in the I-78 corridor and the daily brush fires in the weather discussions.  Thanks

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

How about 3 in a row? The 6z lays down the goods as well.

The huge snow amounts will be gone by the 18z tomorrow - Reliable Data ingestion from the PAC has not even been incorporated into the models yet. When it is less than 5 days from the event with all three LR models on board , then I will be concerned. This BS scenario has happened at least  three times in February. Reliable LR forecasting for snow amounts has been non-existent in this weather in this progressive pattern.  T- storms die out , heavy rain disappears over the Blue Mts as well. The only dam weather phenomenon that is a sure thing in this crappy pattern is a dry adiabatic wind over the mountains with gusts over 30 mph for days on end that causes diurnal temp fluctuations of 25- 30 degrees everyday.

1 hour ago, LVblizzard said:

Weenie range 0z GFS has a storm that gives the I-78 corridor 2-3 feet of snow as March comes to an end. One of the crazier runs I’ve seen all winter.

OMG, this Good for shits and giggles (GFS) models are acting like a far left wing reporter by doubling down on successive runs. What a joke.

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fantasy run of fantasy runs for sure. 

This is no longer funny IMHO. If the LR models are this bad, why even believe any of them.  What purpose does this map serve? 30 inches of snow is purely comical. A lot of taxpayer monies being spent collecting data and running these models and they provide jack sH&t in predictability outcomes.  Its been 2-3 dozen times in the last two months that have shown ridiculous snowfall amounts like this. Please tell me what information does this map actually provide to any forecaster other than a good laugh?

30 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Big winds are on the menu again for Thursday night aka trash night here. Can't wait I'll get beer and wings for the big blow away.

this shit pattern will never end.

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm buckled up...are you?

I am buckled up for another crashing defeat of a warning level snowfall event. 1-3 inches  if we are absolutely lucky as hell. Need to see what DR No says on Thursday

2 hours ago, LVLion77 said:

0.68” total here in sw lehigh county. It’s certainly better than nothing, but definitely a bit disappointing. We definitely needed a lot more than that. Hopefully we can add at least 1/4” or so and do well next Monday.


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you verified my forecast of  .60 yesterday.  Thanks Still thinking snow for the weekend.  LMAO

30 minutes ago, RedSky said:

.30" 

one more round of showers in the next hour, should  reach .60 like I  first thought. Accurately predicting  1-2 in rains are not in the cards for another few weeks. It's like predicting a 6" snow event ---NADA. The drought lives on. At least things will green up now  better late than never.

First  rumble of thunder this year. Raining steadily for about 10 so far minutes. Finally hear rain on the roof. The spring bulbs and grass are going to love this nitrogen infused rain. Convective rainfall infuses tons of natures free nitrogen fertilizer into the ground for the lawns to quickly green up. Just what the doctor ordered. Goodbye yellow grass.

oh its coming  like i said earlier wam bam thank you mam. 2 inches - no way 1 inch remote possibility  likely .60 in of rain. keep the spring flowers budding and green up some grass areas. No drought buster for sure.  I am waiting for the comments of a 3-6+ in  snow event in less than 10 days on both the GFS and CMC  evening runs ---what a joke