Albedoman

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Welp. Pretty damn foggy out there. Outdoor Christmas lights on....all good.

39F/Fog

 

a very clear sign that tomorrow afternoon/evening is going to be a royal rumbler with flooding rains. The atmosphere is loading up for the show with all of the warm air advection going on. Seen this scenario unfold many times in December. T storms, squall lines and very damaging winds coming our way. I will state emphatically right now that since this storm will be so dynamic with all of this moisture loading up at this time of the year  and the fact it is already in the mid 40's at my house this morning., we will be under severe t- storm watch tomorrow afternoon , mostly for damaging straight line winds.  The flooding rains will be the main  by product this time but you will not forget about the winds.  The front is so dynamic that I also say half dollar size snowflakes with a 1-3 inches of snow and very gusty winds will be on our doorstep Monday morning is very possible scenario for the LV and northern Montgomery/Bucks area. 

 If many of the posters are like me, we are all sick and tired of looking at model runs that indicate snow at one run and 12 hrs later zilch. The only model run worth looking at this time is the NAM/ HRR at 36 hours. I am also so sick of seeing daily forecasts bust in the past several months for sky conditions as well. P Sunny does not mean 98% cloudy. So many wasted days under cloudy skies the last four months that were supposed to be mostly sunny.  Its like we live in the far west as high cirrus/altostratus  clouds covering the entire sky with a milky appearance is rare for us but has happen a dozen times  in the past month. It does bring nice sunset colors though.

I am ready for a good old fashion Miller A storm. The GOM has been shut down for so long as we could not even get a decent  tropical storm  this year up in our area. I am telling you this, as the old timer of the forum,  this current weather pattern has all of the appearances of another type of Superstorm of 93 forming.  It was dead city around here until that storm formed in the northern GOM near the panhandle of Fla.  I believe another storm will form in the same area this winter and present the same issues. Not quite as stong but the pattern is leaning in that direction. 

Just hoping for some snow before Christmas. The Dec 18-21 time period looks promising but the event keeps being kicked down the road.  I am hoping or least a few clippers this year too to keep the topping fresh

yes its only one model run but the writing is all over the wall. Dec 5-8 usually is the first accumulating snowfall event for the area--- aka  Pearl harbor day snow bombing run. This year is no different. I will be more hopeful if I see this same scenario unfolding as below on the model runs on Friday. These models have been hinting some type of snow event for the last week in the same time frame but they keep appearing and disappearing on each model run.  

The last two days of model runs have really gone downhill for snow production in the LV in the first week of December .  I hope that changes after this storm passes. The 10 minutes of light sleet this morning should have been called "mood Pellets" 

On 11/18/2023 at 12:35 PM, RedSky said:

.10" overnight, my total since October 21st is .30" very confident this will be the driest 30 day stretch in my lifetime.

Bought a rain gauge 10/21 and broke the weather.

Stream levels look decent locally I don't get how, drought guy?

 

The evapotranspiration rates have been negligible the last few weeks as the colder nights reaching dew points have set in. In other words, not much of the stream flow is being utilized from the lack of intense heat now. The second main reason is that leaf photosynthesis production as ceased, thus ground water water is not being pulled out the soil for the tree roots. The combination has help keep the stream flows going.  Tonights rain is a lifesaver and helps get the trees feet wet before the soil freezes in the next two weeks plus keep wildfire threats down. 

Channel 69 news ran with this BS tonight. Boy the weenies are coming to the surface now.

https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/lehighvalley/69-news-meteorologist-discusses-european-weather-model-forecasting-december-snow-in-lehigh-valley-that-took/article_7af2db2c-8263-11ee-bfee-7b74ff14fc43.html

On 11/11/2023 at 10:22 AM, Albedoman said:

for the ultimate snow weenie in all of us. This was pushed out in the EC models for snow amounts at Christmas. Give me a break. Talk about a dream run. This BS run beats all of the EC runs for the weenies. One hell of a Christmas wish. Having fun LMAO

well I posted this on saturday- guess what Channel 69 picks it up this evening and runs with the story with a video too  LMAO big time now.

https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/lehighvalley/69-news-meteorologist-discusses-european-weather-model-forecasting-december-snow-in-lehigh-valley-that-took/article_7af2db2c-8263-11ee-bfee-7b74ff14fc43.html

for the ultimate snow weenie in all of us. This was pushed out in the EC models for snow amounts at Christmas. Give me a break. Talk about a dream run. This BS run beats all of the EC runs for the weenies. One hell of a Christmas wish. Having fun LMAO

lots of raking to do on Wednesday as the 30 mph wind gusts from the passing cold front  really does a number on what leave are left on the trees. on Tuesday through Tuesday night . We sure could use an inch of rain right now too.

9 minutes ago, RedSky said:

My bad wisdom tooth is telling me I have no choice

expect a bunch of mangled flakes around  4-5 am maybe a dusting?

just talked to relatives in Milwaukee- getting pounded with snow this afternoon and evening - a few inches pretty crappy Halloween.

On 9/27/2023 at 9:38 AM, Albedoman said:

Now, comes campfire time. With the rain gone after Friday, the grass growing like gangbusters, it's back to enjoying fall weather and garden activities in upcoming next few weeks.  LR models indicate a prolong mild dry period with highs in the low to mid 80's too. With the warmer weather, the leaves should stay on the trees longer too.  Looks like the majority leaf raking will not happen until after Halloween this year unless we get a cold/windy  shot near the end of the month. 

            MY leaf color forecast is right on schedule based on Tuesdays forecast with Frost. Late next week will be peak color after the frost.  Most of the leaves will fall of by election day with windy days. the piles will be high as they will all fall off at the same time. 

4 hours ago, RedSky said:

Isolated showers 20% really? Hit with showers every hour today and finally quit what I was trying to get done lol

greenskeeper would give you a weenie tag for such a statement LOL

I am so sick of these debris clouds and showers showing up at my doorstep when sunny skies are in the forecast and zero percent chance of rain.  Cannot get anything done

On 9/27/2023 at 9:38 AM, Albedoman said:

Now, comes campfire time. With the rain gone after Friday, the grass growing like gangbusters, it's back to enjoying fall weather and garden activities in upcoming next few weeks.  LR models indicate a prolong mild dry period with highs in the low to mid 80's too. With the warmer weather, the leaves should stay on the trees longer too.  Looks like the majority leaf raking will not happen until after Halloween this year unless we get a cold/windy  shot near the end of the month. 



anyone west of quakertown  nothing.  I have had less than .10 in the entire event- drizzle thats it.  The south mountain range  upsloping is destroying any rain to the west- physical geography doing a number on rainfall totals.  I hate these hybrid storm events.  Bring back the sun.

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

I thought leaf change looks on schedule. Lots of yellow showing up and some orange reds and purple. Typically most leaves will be off the trees by Halloween.

this is why also said what I did. The NWS just agreed with me two hours ago with this release

 

Now, comes campfire time. With the rain gone after Friday, the grass growing like gangbusters, it's back to enjoying fall weather and garden activities in upcoming next few weeks.  LR models indicate a prolong mild dry period with highs in the low to mid 80's too. With the warmer weather, the leaves should stay on the trees longer too.  Looks like the majority leaf raking will not happen until after Halloween this year unless we get a cold/windy  shot near the end of the month. 

Lee is OTS but nigel/ophelia - direct hit at NYC in the GFS 12Z run. The hype may start soon

4 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Lol, yeah, that won't go well at all. Kinda like the cesspool political sub-forum where Dem/Rep bicker all day and nothing is accomplished...then they start the next day w/the same result.

Maybe just let it be...

65F/DP 64F....feeling a bit better outside.

 

sometimes both sides have to realize the truth and get over their differences. I gave them a way out to approach their differences without all of us reading the results. Everyone is in this forum because of how the weather affects them personally. Climatologists are no different, they just need a different room to play in.  Lol

"Hi Mike...not the best post in Ray's history....I hope he apologizes to the forum. We should never ever devolve on a weather forum to the level of name calling and personal insults like that. I think we can all agree on that!"

OMG, 45 years of data gathering for others to enjoy and 60+ years living on this earth- crunching numbers to prove a climatological point is not just what weather is really about. Enjoying the actual daily weather change in our atmosphere by mother nature and how it affects or daily activities is what this specific thread is all about.   Weather is not just about numerology, statistics and for climatology records to drive home personal viewpoints of someones's hypothesis of local or regional climate change, its all about the personal experience of the specific weather event itself.  As a retired physical geographer with an atmospheric science degree, I can tell you what personally drives me- living through any type of weather event  that mother nature can throw at me and being able to share to  my friends, family and other colleagues my thoughts and personal experiences of that particular weather event. I guess that is why Mt. Holly wishes to hear the opinions of each storm event  from an official weather spotters like me and not just precip/temp data. Fighting over number crunching is ridiculous and pointless unless you are true climatologist  wanting to prove any type of hypothesis.  I would suggest  Ray or you start your own thread on local or regional climatology and leave the bickering of crunching numbers in that specific thread to prove a personal local climate change hypothesis, such as elevation or even ALBEDO dependencies---lol .  Thanks  guys

synopsis for today.  Hit 94 here in Lower Macungie.  First thundershower  at 1:30 pm few drops of rain most of the t storm went NW toward Schnecksville.  Second round- outflow boundary with gust front at 5pm. Biggest wind storm  in a while. 40 Mph gusts with several dead ash trees falling  in the woods behind my house.  At 5:45pm , the line of t storms finally came though with dime size hail, lots of lighting  and heavy rain. Another round of t- storms came though about 30 minutes ago- nice lighting show. Last look at guage was nearly an inch or more of  very welcomed rainfall. Will be spending tomorrow afternoon cleaning up the debris from the gust front. Leaves are everywhere.

The race is on in the GFS models. Who can get here in our region first? The midwestern trough or Hurricane Lee? Right now, latest model runs the last 24 hours is leaning for steering the midwestern trough into  Quebec  much sooner. The quicker that trough moves, the more blocky the low pressure becomes in the Canadian maritimes thus forcing Hurricane Lee to hit the east coast in our region.  Realistically, small changes in speed in the upper air flow for this trough will make all the difference in the world for this hurricane path.  We really will not know until 3-5 days out. Its just like predicting a nor'easter for our area right now. If this situation and current weather pattern continues, it is a tell tale sign for this upcoming winter as  we will be hugging the model runs to death with many late night 00z model run synopsis by all posters  of how these numerous coastal storms will pan out. The important model run for this Hurricane is next Monday nights 00Z run.  The hype will begin over the weekend 

the potential hurricane on the 15-17 is showing a lot of potential to be devastating along the east coast , especially to Long Island/NJ with tidal/surge flooding and tons of wind damage  Someone will have to start a new thread on this soon if the models continue in this direction. Flooding rains like Floyd is a dam good potential. This type of storm usually breaks the stagnant weather pattern we are in and ushers in some really cool fall air too. I do not wish for 6+ inch rains in 12 hours. The worst thing in the LV and eastern PA  is that any winds over 50 mph gusts will bring down thousands of dead ash tree/limbs everywhere that have been sitting dead for years from the ash borer. The debris dams in the streams and falling on the roads damage will be incredible from these ash trees.

Great, got down to 48 this morning at the house.  Slept like a baby.  Need more of this early autumn weather . This 90+degree  is only going to raise my utility bills and serves no other purpose this late in the summer season. However, with little to no precip,  the leaves will also turn quickly this year but the  colors should be real nice.  No smoke, no fog.  real nice morning   Reminds me a lot of weather for the morning of 911.