Albedoman

My first shot at this potential event-- the coastal timing will bounce back and forth on the 10th to 11th. I only expect a white rain event at the best. Just not cold enough to see accumulating snow this time of the year in the valleys.  The cold air  has  not been really locked in yet. Strictly an elevation event if it does occur--about 1500ft  for accumulating snow.   South Mtn range is my best guess at this time to see the best chance of accumulating snow in our area.  The big takeaway IMHO- it will finally feel like winter again, with highs in the mid to upper 30's and the heat will finally have come on. The GEM  sees something on the noon run but the snow hits at the very tail end of the storm. The GFS will be bouncing all over the place the next 5-7 days  typical with the govt shutdown for additional air soundings in the Pac west

On 10/31/2025 at 4:23 PM, Albedoman said:

noon runs look like an overrunning situation  possibly forming after a cold frontal passage near 11/13 with cold enuf temps to have  frozen precip. Something to watch. The cold frontal passage  on the 10th will bring hard freezes with temps in low 20's and high in the upper 30's. 

now it is showing up on tonights run. First flakes of the year?

noon runs look like an overunning situation  possibly forming after a cold frontal passage near 11/13 with cold enuf temps to have  frozen precip. Something to watch. The cold frontal passage  on the 10th will bring hard freezes with temps in low 20's and high in the upper 30's. 

8 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

Sandy redux on the 12z Canadian late next week. Could be some interesting days of tracking ahead.

All I know is this scenario model run better not happen. After looking at the CMC noon run, this would make Sandy look like a baby.  With all of the dead ash trees in Eastern PA  now and especially in the LV and urbanized and major riverine flooding,  this would be a one hell of a disaster for our area. I would see unbelievable debris dams in the waterways from these fallen limbs and trees that would wipe out major bridges in our area. The power outages would be unmanageable and you will not find a generator in stock for 250 miles from our region.  The fact this scenario is already showing up  for one week away warrants further discussion by all pro's. Even a slight hit would be a huge concern.  There will nothing left at the NJ beaches for next year beaachgoers and NYC will get one hell of test of its new subway drainage pumping system.  Definitely will keep an eye on these model runs as the media and so-called internet weather gurus on facebook/youtube   will play this up real good in the next few days if the the model runs continue to show this tonight and tomorrow. Can you say Panic? 

Just had a thundershower- light ---here in lower macungie

My forecast did suggest a slow start.  Enjoy the fall weather while you can.  Come january you will be wishing for temps above 45 .  I expect more mix events than anything else in late nov into mid dec as the pattern sets up for january

9 hours ago, JTA66 said:

I don’t recall, but I’ll say the girls.

Let’s face it, if I had the ball and a bunch of girls were chasing me with the objective of tackling me and rolling around in the mud…yeah, I’m not going to try my best to avoid that outcome.

9 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Mud football games are fun. My sister played in one during her senior year of high school as a running back. The next door neighbor was a junior in high school, and the running back of the other team. No one was able to stop either of them that day. My sister's team ended up winning.

Who won your game?

(Oh, and I bet you if Drought Guy was around when Gloria was happening, he'd be talking about how a drought was around the corner...)

sorry, I was not living here in PA at the time so I never experienced what was going on. I was down in Memphis Tn at the time. I had other hurricanes to deal with down there at the time Elena but more importantly, Memphis had over a foot of snow in one storm  in the winter of 85 . That would be like a 3 ft snow here.

Million dollar t storms right now

5 hours ago, RedSky said:

This Afternoon

Forecast Sunny, with a high near 78. South wind around 5 mph.

 

Dense cloud cover all day not a ray. But not a complaint it's been the best weather ever for weeks and weeks

 

 

Drenching downpours are coming in the next two days says the drought guy. Million dollar rains for landscapers and for fall colors

9 hours ago, RedSky said:

Leaves are yellow and falling off the trees in the Wal Mart parking lot in mass. Too early looks strange.

Not included in the abnormally dry in the last drought maps i have seen which is bizarre it's a tinder box in the woods.

Drought guy were in trouble man

 

I am not too worried yet. Its dry like this on average years during this time frame.  Concerns:

1. Being a neutral year, we are in for a real cold and snowy winter which will definitely help the groundwater tables. See lots of northeaster's and the potential freezing rain/sleet  events early in December.  Expecting some nice rains by mid October as the warm pattern breaks down.  A good tropical storm up the east coast can really help get us out this stubborn pattern.

2. The leaves are scorched brown and falling off. No color until we have temps in the 40's again and highs only in the low 60's. Do not see that happening  until the second week of October folks.  

3. I agree. We need some decent rain by Wednesday, otherwise burn bans will likely go into effect in the next week or so. The canopies are dry and the scorched leaves  falling are not helping. 

4.  Even the tent caterpillars died off in this early warm spell before autumn.  This is been the latest I have run the AC in a real long time as overnight lows struggle to get to the 50's

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Drought guy wrong again. I've been drought free since March 5.

what are talking about?  The drought ended back in July for the LV.  Hell, I had 2.5 in of rain two days ago at my house. I would be more worried about us having a neutral winter this year  and record cold  come mid December . Enjoy your Halloween as the frigid air will come back near Thanksgiving this winter with more nor'easter chances.

2.15 inches at house  in LMT= still raining

Getting hammered. Best t storms in a long time. Lighting hitting homes in our area. Thunder shaking the whole house. Picked up nearly an inch so far. This rain helped the corn and soybean yields

21 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

Wow, did not expect nearly an inch of rain this evening. A welcome surprise and good fortune in the center of that band of heavy showers heading into very dry weather pattern.

1.25  at my house. Nice steady downpours tonight. There is no drought now with over 3.5 in the past week.  The soybeans are the greenest I have seen them in a long time. Dewpoints in the 40's will be welcomed- more evening fires in the fire pit. 

https://www.mcall.com/2025/08/13/severe-storms-lehigh-valley-power-outages/

2.45 in of rain thus far. Million dollar rain for the spike corned

holy snikes. I am getting shit kicked out of me as far as downpours.go.  It is raining at a full 2 inches+ an hour here  in lower macungie at 4:45 pm. Flash flood warnings will be issued soon.

I am still waiting for a winter storm warning event LOL.  You know its dry when another sinkhole opens up a 100 ft wide  crater right across the street from the Amazon Center in Palmer Township.  The hurricane in a few weeks will take care of any drought conditions. Planting grass seed is impossible in these conditions. This is seal your driveway or paint the fence weather dry and hot.

Drought guy says cmon baby. Only a major hurricane  riding up the coast will be our savior. The corn is already spiking in western lehigh county. Everone else east of s mountain got inches of rain as we got zilch .....lots of complaints about turning off the normal rain pattern in july. This what you get brown lawns everwhere here in lower macungie. We have been the screw zone since mid july. 

Mike Gorse, fwiw,--the current point forecast for Ancient Oaks in Lehigh County   does not display the current flood warning- strangeIt maybe because Its for Perkiomen stream only and not the Little lehigh. I guess  Thanks

https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/trep1

2.25 inches of rain at my house - Spring Creek is at flood stage and rising quickly. Been a long time since we have reached flood stage. Yes I will declare this drought over guys at this time. These long duration rains are now bringing up the base flows of the streams. Corn is coming up nicely in my area of Lehigh County. If the farmer is trying to plant it now, it could be a loss. The loss however is not just the rain but with the extreme cooler temps. Usually by now, we have temps in the mid to upper 80's with a few days of 90's.   In fact, we maybe back in the 40's for overnight lows and highs only in the upper 60's for June 1   ------ Coolest I have seen for us in June but it does save on the AC bills. But after Wednesday, we go back into the oven.  Watch the mold counts grow big time. 

I attended the Iron Pigs game last night.  Cold unstable air mass showers popping up throughout the game.  Observed three rainbows  with one of them being a double rainbow. However, if you look directly over the US foods advertising board, in these photos in right field, there appears to be a cold air funnel forming with the cold unstable air mass in place. I would like Mike and his team to look at these photos for verification. It did not appear to be a simple rain shaft but actually appeared to have rotation and looked like a funnel. If this was indeed a cold air funnel, this would be extreme for our area  but I would not doubt its formation with this very  cold unstable air mass above in late May.

10 hours ago, RedSky said:

Long range pattern is wet drought guy will need to retire

 

LMAO- Guess its time to change my alias to flood guy now 

1 hour ago, MGorse said:

The tornado was not rated yet. 

Thanks Mike I should have said "possible"  left out the word.  Sorry.  It appears to be an EF0 after looking at the tree damage video more closely but FWIW to shear of tree tops and twist them  like that would have easily destroyed a home if the funnel  actually reached the ground  and was not over a forested area, which why I said  a possible EFI .