Albedoman

drought is ignored in the winter as these PADEP hydrologists sit comfortably in their heated offices and never get out to see the real world. They rely on  inaccurate  USGS gauges during frozen conditions  and other BS modeling for drought that are with unproven techniques.  Tell them to go drill a monitoring well and they will always say  what for?  The stupidity burns my friends.

The current snow pack contains snowflakes with little moisture content which does nothing for the drought.  Best evidence in which the hydrologists ignore is the moisture content of the snowpack.  My proof?  Look how yellow the grass was even before the latest snow cover.  The grass has now been covered with some low moisture fluffy snow but in these desert like humidities the last month , sublimation has literally destroy the moisture content of the snow cover and when the grass is exposed again, the grass will be even more yellow- actually brown. But they continue to sit in their offices dreaming of a flood somewhere. Thanks for agreeing with me.

17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some of us talk about it here, so it is not being ignored.   Stream Flow in PA is borderline bad but marginal at best,

 

 

Yes, some talk about it here but it is the media that ticks me off. Too much time on sports and social issues, not enough time on water supply issues until it's too late.  The snow sublimation is a humongous problem right now. Ski resorts are pumping one hell of lot water out of the ground just to keep the slopes at the proper snow depth. Why is no one mentioning that situation? The levels of streams show drought conditions now because they are frozen. Low flow conditions enable the non limestone streams to freeze longer and harder. More ice jams later?  a good 18-24 inch state nowfall event would help a lot. That is not in the cards at this time. I see 2/14 to 2/20  period  as the best and only shot of this happening as the dying la nina is put down with a new pattern change. However this pattern reminds of the 3 pattern before the March 93 superstorm too 

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Elliott looking ahead:

The moderating trend that begins late this week should continue into early February. However, it will be very gradual and come with a few setbacks. The aforementioned, high-latitude blocking over Greenland should finally vanish this weekend and then not return for the foreseeable future. In addition, MJO phases 3 and 4.. as well as their "lags".. support a massive, northward bulge in the Jet Stream over the Central and Eastern States. The mean, Jet Stream ridge currently centered along the West Coast of North America will gradually retrograde into the Bering Sea over the next 1-2 weeks. In turn, the core of the coldest air should also retrograde north and west, ultimately ending up in the northern Plains, northern Rockies and western Canada by early February. The infamous "Southeast Ridge" so typical of La Niña Februaries will then face little resistance to "flare up" along the Eastern Seaboard. Thus, I still anticipate a significantly milder February with above-average temperatures

 and no rain or snow  well enjoy your drought folks with the mild temps

29 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

We really haven’t had all the pieces in place at one time to wind up any kind of a big storm all winter despite us achieving deep winter status. Our two signature events this month were a weakening southern stream wave attacking a confluent pattern and this past event being a fairly vigorous wave along an arctic front. It has continued to be a dry pattern. I’ve got about 10” for the month, with zero rain. So take into account these have all been higher ratio snowfalls I’d be lucky to have 0.75” of liquid equivalent for the month so far. 

The only real precip opportunity I see right now is that Sunday/Monday timeframe where mainly the GFS has been playing around with some kind of an overrrunning type system. Guidance raises heights in the SE in that timeframe into a really flat SE ridge, though I would hardly call it such. It does moderate temps back to about seasonal and would set the boundary for systems to run through here and not say, the Gulf Coast. Whether there’s anything depends on if any energy gets ejected out of the SW, and both GFS/Euro seem mostly content to keep that closed off low there most of next week. Not real keen on anything else otherwise. There looks like some reinforcing cold next week at times centered on New England (still keeping us seasonal or below), but we’re on the backside of the mean trough. Highly progressive northern branch that is too far NE for clippers here with the sprawling western ridge and +NAO/AO regime downstream. Not much opportunity for phasing if anything does eject out of the SW. 

Beyond that I really haven’t seen a lot for me to jump on the complete pattern reversal bandwagon yet. Certainly it looks like a period of above average heights/temps is coming likely near or during the first week of February. But the longevity of that kind of a pattern change is going to depend on some things. Some MJO forecasts completely avoid 4-5-6 or at least phase 5 and others really lower the magnitude eventually into the null phase. If we don’t go full bore and stall out in the those phases, I don’t expect the influence to be such that we have a heat wave and gigantic eastern ridge for any extended amount of time. It will be milder though, regular teleconnections other than the WPO are not particularly great looking. But what we do have that we didn’t last year is much colder air in Canada. That could help press the boundary in a more borderline setup. Certainly a more active storm track would be beneficial snow or not. Still much to resolve out that far. 

Your post indicates only emphasizes one thing -CONTINUED SERIOUS DROUGHT SITUATION- and a bad one at that. Without heavy  snowfalls in the next few weeks, we are in a world of hurt. As a professional hydrologist, the continued freezing temps with  little to no snow melt,  huge amounts of snow being sublimated and the ground water table falling because of no recharge  with frozen soils and well pumping, we are in serious trouble for this spring. I hope state officials are aware of this problem because the media sure as hell does not care. They only care about the insignificant snow events and the bitter cold. and how it affects social issues and event.  When peoples wells run dry, then maybe they will spend time on water supply issues.

22 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

I posted a response to another's concern about  birding. This just happened. A red tail hawk hit my front window and was stunned. This is getting unbelievable. Last night low was -2  here in macungie with almost 8 in of snow on the ground. 

I posted a response to another's concern about  birding. This just happened. A red tail hawk hit my front window and was stunned. This is getting unbelievable. Last night low was -2  here in macungie with almost 8 in of snow on the ground. 

26 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I suppose Emmaus different parts of town possibly elevation or perhaps a bit of inaccuracy in measurement. 

30 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Interesting that the Mertztown and Huff's Church totals are so low when New Hanover, Alburtis and Fleetwood totals are high. Also Emmaus- two different measurements. 

Here in Lower macungie, just outside of Alburtis  we had some wicked but nice localized snow banding. When the first band came through around 3 pm  the flakes were pancake size and lasted for over an hour. It was snowing at 2-3 inch per hour rates for nearly 1.5 hours. The another band came through around 5  pm and dropped some more heavy snow  1 inch per hour rates but the fluff factor with the snow flake was noticeably diminished I ended up with 7.8 inches.  The banding was expected and was a huge difference. The RGEM as well as final Mt Holly snow map showed the banding right over me.  Below was my original forecast  from days ago as stuck with the RGEM and my past experiences with these type of snow pattern events. 

This is what I got so far 7.25 in

Approaching 8 in for  the Macungie area, banding still going on with low visibility and  S+ snow

12 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Birding must be awesome there.

yes it is awesome birding, bald eagles ,  red tail at my feeders and deer with other animals up on my deck The feeder on the deck hosts, raccoons, possums, at least 6-8 squirrels at a time and hundreds of birds

Its puking snow right now in Macungie 3-4 inches on the ground now. Visibility cut big time  - less than 1/4 mile with stiff breezes  Snow ratios up to near 15:1  with the fluff factor

Its puking snow right now in Macungie 3-4 inches on the ground now. Visibility cut big time  - less than 1/4 mile with stiff breezes  Snow ratios up to near 15:1  with the fluff factor

OH no,  ten minutes of pixie dust size flakes  are  already fluffed up pretty good. Snow ratios way are already considerably higher than 10: 1 for sure as the cold air is working down through the profiles. The models indicate 10:1 snow ratios  With banding , I see a 8-12 inches in places now.  I ran the meteogram generator  at KABE/KRDG at 20:1 ratios and its nearly  a foot with the expected precip amounts without banding. The start time is a few hours ahead of schedule too.

https://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=Kabe&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=20&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

3 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Thought I might wake up to a downgraded Winter Weather Advisory instead woke up to the Winter Storm Warning upgraded to 5-8 lol

for the newbies: as the LP gets wrapped up, the snow ratios will go up. Looking at models 6 hours  hours before this type of  storm event is useless. Its all radar folks.  A true meteorologist knows the historical function of past events too- just not relying on modelogy. Watch and learn. My Holly is spot on. The HRDPS and HRRR is what to be looking at if you are counting inches. Basically, where the frontogenisis banding sets up. The sweet spot for banding with a historical benchmark storm like this one for good snow banding is in northern montgomery, bucks and the LV.  Lets just see how it pans out. Anyway the best part of this storm  is the cold and blowing snow afterwards  with a chance of thundersnow in the snow banding too.

The Meso's are in play. The delayed start time is usual when trying to overcome the huge amount of dry air in place. Typically starts  off as pixie dust and  within the hour becomes a moderate snow.  The models have a tough time ingesting this dry air for start timing and accumulations as we are in the depth of  this huge  arctic air mass this time around..  As the moisture and evaporative cooling  snowfall overcomes the dry layers in the atmosphere, the snow ratios will increase dramatically thus the moderate snow quickly becomes heavy snow (Fluff factor). If it was windy, we would have whiteout conditions but the LP, I believe is not deep enough and too far away from the coast this time. The HRDPS model is a trusting model for this particular storm event IMHO because it shows the fragmentation of the upper air patterns as the LP lifts northward off the coast. For the LV , also reaching the benchmark usually gives a decent snowfall event so I feel good about getting over 6 inches for a winter storm warning. 

Banding of the snow is  an issue that the meso's seem to have trouble identifying the approximate locations. Where those band setup and the progressives of the LP off the coast is the real determining factor.  The storm in Macungie last Feb was a good example of this. Someone will get a lollipop of 10+ inches  in the warned areas and we all hope it is over us.  LOL

this is what it could look like?

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1068529676892306

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro ai

I have- its called the HEMP - Historical Experience Meteorological  Patterns ---Model - used by us old geezers on occasion before the internet and commodore computers. LMAO 

Below is how I played modelogy  back in the late 70's to early 80"s.  they were games:---Wow how have things changed as being more serious and talk about changing from run to run every 6 hours?  LMAO

https://www.mobygames.com/game/174994/weather-tamers/

A Winter storm warning should be issued tomorrow by early afternoon for the LV.  I only say that time frame because of the nuisance precip should get out of the way first  but I am not Mt Holly. They could be confident enough to issue Sat morning however Its been a long time coming.  Plowable snow - its about time. . This will be the heaviest snow since last year in Feb  from the freak snow  banding event giving us a  localized snow of 15 inches or so in Macungie ( we only got warned during mid stream of last years event- not MT Hollys fault)  as seen on 2/16/24 in my deck picture below. I expect Monday morning to look pretty similar with about 10+ inches.  The huge difference is that this will blow everywhere by Monday evening as the snow will be very fluffy from the high snow ratios. I do expect rural plowed roads  I the LV  (Nazareth area) to be drifted shut if the winds pick up as I expect.

Again,  I emphasize the cold temps. This will be the coldest outbreak we have seen in many years.  Say goodbye to many nuisance bugs for next spring.  Ice jams on local rivers will become a problem in Feb should we have some moderation with these cold  temps but ice jamming will become an issue in the future regardless. The typical frozen pipes, especially outside faucets that have not been properly winterized will burst. Many of drivers  will burn through a ton of windshield wiper solution as the salt brine spray will become unbearable as exampled by todays quick melt off and of course car wash  will be backed up with long lines on the sunny days. Do not be surprised as many car washes will close down with these cold temps next week too.

So far so good. Right on schedule. Like I said 8 to 12 in.  For the wsw. Let's hope it holds.  The high snow ratios will be the talk with blowing snow. Drifting maybe an issue. The intense raditional cooling temps subzero for the lv for sure with this storm event now.

4 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

If the NAM scores a coup over the Euro AI, I'll read every one of Albedoman's posts from start to finish.

that's a damn good punishment   Brings tears to my eyes  LMAO

23 hours ago, Albedoman said:

The CMC has been  holding strong and consistent this entire week for Sunday- Monday event, I find that refreshing. The GFS has been floundering and the Euro came back toward the CMC  solution. The totals have been all over the place but it appears 6-8+ in may come more into line later tonight IMHO.  I would post a thread later tonight after the OZ runs if the start aligning with my thoughts 0f 6-8 in. This would be a WSW event. A watch maybe needed by Sat morning if this scenario comes to fruition. The key will be the high snow ratios too. The storm may move quickly but the ratios and cold in place will make for a winter wonderland.

this is my first call from a day ago. I am sticking to it so far and so is MT Holly in their discussion this morning. For the LV the totals may be more in line with 8-12  in with the higher snow ratios that I expect. I expect a winter storm watch by 3pm today  if the trend in the models keep up at 12Z.  The big thing though- blowing snow folks and the biting cold. Many frozen pipes and dead batteries coming next week that is for sure. 

1 hour ago, AccuChris said:

Another view of the 18z Euro AI QPF. Definitely another jump up
with  snow ratios between 15 to 20:1 with the cold temps ( low 20's) . fluffy and total accumulations between 8-12 inches in the LV on this map. Thats nice. easy to shovel too.

.

8 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Was going to go out and do some DoorDash tonight. But the roads look bad and it looks like there’s some crashes starting to appear on Google Maps. Not going to be a part of that shitshow even if the money is good.

not worth it. Just wait until we get 4+ inches unplowed on the road Sunday night into Monday morning. These idiots will wreck everything in site. Many of the inexperienced drivers will basically take out there 40 to 80 grand + trucks and SUVs and drive them like as shown in the misguided commercials and end up wrecking their vehicles thinking they can drive on anything. They are all in for rude awakening come Monday when the Sunday night snows do not melt very well even with salt on the pavement. Tuesday morning will be wreck city as these vehicles also do not drive well on icy snow packed road surfaces too. Snow packed icy intersections will be common in the rural roads. The interstates should be fine but those local backroads that many drivers use for short cuts will be snow packed as the plows will take longer to to get to them. Going to be fun because everything will freeze hard as a rock something we have not seen much of in the last 20+ years. Major Rivers like the Lehigh and others will begin to freeze up, ice jams later? 

The CMC has been  holding strong and consistent this entire week for Sunday- Monday event, I find that refreshing. The GFS has been floundering and the Euro came back toward the CMC  solution. The totals have been all over the place but it appears 6-8+ in may come more into line later tonight IMHO.  I would post a thread later tonight after the OZ runs if the start aligning with my thoughts 0f 6-8 in. This would be a WSW event. A watch maybe needed by Sat morning if this scenario comes to fruition. The key will be the high snow ratios too. The storm may move quickly but the ratios and cold in place will make for a winter wonderland.

7 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

red fire retardant... that explains everything!

Just ferrtilzer to keep the BS spreading right?