Albedoman

19 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

GFS essentially gives the shaft anyone north of like mid-bucks county. From there to Philly it is about 1-3in

you should be looking at the mesoscale models now. GFS is unreliable IMHO, especially with digging clippers for our area

Fantasy Christmas storm shows up again this evening runs  with  over a foot and half.   WE can only dream. White rain all day here but at least it was some precip. Take. 

New York poster are scared because no water in the reservoirs means no water for them regardless of how the polluted Hudson looks.  The bitter cold is locking up the streams everywhere with ice too- so the water intakes in the rivers will be the talk too. Just look around hear- the Jordan creek is already frozen over with the little water that is in it.  It might as well be empty. We really ne3d a 3-5 in rain event with 50 degrees for a 3-4 day duration event. Any one see that in their crystal ball?

37 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Does drought guy have relatives in NY? NY subforum has several recent drought related post. Right up his alley....may want to get him on the horn. 

no relatives but watch what comes out of DRBC the next few weeks. A basin wide drought warning maybe implemented by them by mid January if we do not get any moisture Up this way.  The southern jet stream is simply too far south and the northern jet stream will not bend to bring it up.  Their is enough short waves below Memphis but they are dying on the vine in the Tenn Valley. WE NEED TN VALLEY SHORTWAVES FOLKS TO PRODUCE UNTIL THEN YOU GET  NOTHING TO TRACK.

I have seen so much convoluted crap in these long range models last week or so.- it is so sickening.  These LR models  are so undependable when the southern jetstream gets cutoff and whisked away along the carolina coast for snow making in our region. All I am saying is you all better hope we get some deep moisture storms coming from the gulf or the atlantic, or we are going to be in one hell of a drought come spring. Right now I see no significant precip in the next 2-3 weeks. These clippers are bone dry.  Less then . 25 inch of any type of precip is absolutely worthless when the dewpoints are in the single digits and below zero and the winds are at 25 mph after the clipper goes by.   Its a dam desert out there.  Snow will sublimate and rain will evaporate within hours. My humidifier is running like gangbusters right now and its not even mid-January.

We really  need the gulf moisture and it it just cannot get to our neck of the woods because the barrage of bone dry clippers keep it at bay below Memphis Tn. I have never seen such a relentless pattern  in my 50 years of studying weather  for the eastern US.  It will take a very deep low pressure sitting in the gulf and spinning shortwaves toward until the pattern breaks. When this will form I have no idea but frankly the only outcome we are all going to see is fricking utility bills that will be doubled or tripled from last year with all of these cloudy, dreary cold days  under 32 degrees. My november bill nearly doubled because this dam dry and cloudy weather pattern already. Snow weenies, lets hope for a good and really an original four corners low to reform in the gulf and head up the spine of the appalachians at the same time the SE ridge is retreating, especially around Christmas.   Thats the only chance of a good storm I see worth tracking in December. Anything else is a shot in the dark right now as everything and I mean everything has to line up perfectly to see a 6+ in snow event before Christmas.  Signed  debbie downer   LMAO 

Posted this on 11/23

Where the hell these long range so called weather gurus  snow weenies seeing snow for our area on facebook and other media sources and who are just trying to make a few advertising bucks playing up the polar vortex bs  but the current models are sure are NOT portraying anything like this right now for our area..  Every single snow chance has now dwindle to rain/mix event  and also an insignificant rain event at best for our area as the cold dry air is winning the battle.

The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck.  If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast.  The lows  south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time  as it  appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too.  The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us  this year. This pattern is slowly setting up for a lot nuisance mix storm events snow/sleet to rain for our area if this keeps up. A pure snow event will be hard to come by in the next few weeks

Many media outlets will be picking up on the cold that is going to hit us in the next few days too.  Single digits expected.  I am expecting to see many reports on frozen pipes because of so many transient people from other areas of the country gave moved into the Lehigh Valley.  They are not used to winterizing their homes.  If I was a plumber, I would be resting up right now. They will be busy by this time next week.   Never threw out a final call on this storm. The mix line is going everywhere this morning.   Just happy to get some moisture.

bullseye is south mountain/macungie- my house --should be under a winter storm watch based on this model.  Mt Holly no time to be bashful.  The drivers in the LV have not seen snow in a long time. At least get them concerned about this storm event.  Its border line warning criteria I know but least get them prepared under a watch. Too many times in the last few years , an advisory level event has  turned into double digit snowfall events

3 hours ago, penndotguy said:

So we are looking at a potential true Miller A type of storm for Tuesday with the L coming out of the gulf states and a cold air source to the North. When was the last time we saw type of setup? It’s been a while. 

• Location:Lower Macungie Twsp

1 hour ago, simbasad2 said:

New to Americanwx so I'm still trying to figure things out here. How far usually 'til a storm thread is made?

snow weenie amounts of 4-6+inches of snow and or .25 inch of ice   for 2-3 runs with DR No and the GFS also agreeing  and  within 3 days of the event will usually get a good one started in this forum.  We are a long way from that now. LOL 

Last year, it only took winter weather advisory level events to kick one up - we are so snow starved and have been spanked and run down the beaten path with a bunch of events that tuned out to be absolutely jack. This forum is pretty much gun shy for starting storm threads by having been burned so much the last 5 years with pity storms. In the MA forum, you will roasted over the coals for jinxing their forum by starting one. LMAO

5 hours ago, simbasad2 said:

Well... I'd be lying if I said I wasn't surprised. Not sure if I said this here or just thought it to myself, but I was convinced that the early December torch signal was gonna break the streak of every E US Ridge trending into a trough. And that we were going to be flooded with 60s to start the meteorological season. Todays 18z suite so far looks to be an extension of the trends already present on the 12z runs. We might even have our first accumulating snow event of the season. Per the 18z GFS, a relatively weak shortwave will round the base of the longwave/TPV lobe and a fast moving system could bring some light snowfall for someone in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast early next week. Hopefully this isn't a repeat of 2024-25 where everything does a mega south trend to Antarctica

 I agree.  The low pressure shortwave ejecting from the Tenn Valley(GOA)  has got to have some decent moisture for us to get some decent overrunning. For many years now, the  these ejecting lows have been bone dry.  Lets hope the mosture gets involved this time before the dry air wins out.  Literal crap shoot until 48 hours before the event.

  Where the hell these long range so called weather gurus  snow weenies seeing snow for our area on facebook and other media sources and who are just trying to make a few advertising bucks playing up the polar vortex bs  but the current models are sure are NOT portraying anything like this right now for our area..  Every single snow chance has now dwindle to rain/mix event  and also an insignificant rain event at best for our area as the cold dry air is winning the battle.

The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck.  If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast.  The lows  south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time  as it  appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too.  The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us  this year. This pattern is slowly setting up for a lot nuisance mix storm events snow/sleet to rain for our area if this keeps up. A pure snow event will be hard to come by in the next few weeks

I basically want a 2-4 in  long duration three day rain event asap  to get the trees feet wet before the ground freezes and to get runoff back into the soon to be dry  streams. Trout fishing and landscaping  this spring will be severely hampered too if you do not get some significant rains in the next 2-3 weeks.  When LCA declares a drought watch folks,its pretty serious. I have USGS gauging stations in my backyard for the Little Lehigh and if this stream dries up, the businesses  will be greatly affected too throughout PA 

well drought guy, here. These  pity rain events is killing us now. Just issued a drought watch for my water supply. The bad thing is that it did not come from PADEP or the USGS, it came from my water authority LCA.  This is getting serious as this affects the water bottling companies as well as 200,000 residents in the LV. Where is 2-3 in rainfall from a noreaster? WeE can not even squeeze out a popcorn fart for a decent rainfall event. Every time I look at the models, the snow potential keeps getting push back to the middle of December too. Welcome to the arid tundra region again.

https://www.lehighvalleynews.com/environment-science/lehigh-county-authority-declares-drought-watch-asks-residents-to-reduce-water-use

the big pattern change is afoot- 4 corners lows constantly ejecting toward us for the next 3-4 weeks. One of them should be a minimal car topper event but still the GOM is not opened for business yet. We really need one of the 4 corner lows  to go into the GOM and then run up the coast and stall as a Miller A. The PAC winds are just to strong right now and too progressive. Three more days of 40+ winds coming this week. I am so tired of dealing with dead ash trees falling with our public works dept.

finally,some rain to keep the leaf piles from blowing away tomorrow.

35 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

More reds developing. Maybe I'll get on the horn and wake drought guy...still warm out, 60 F

too late  missed me

2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Rain heading through Reading and on my doorstep. Drought guy is probably so damn excited he can't even sleep...

56F

sorry, I could pee more than this rain.  I am more exited about seeing the possibility of white rain in the next few days. I will sleep just fine tonight. At least the wind has stopped. Tired of seeing down ash trees.

My first shot at this potential event-- the coastal timing will bounce back and forth on the 10th to 11th. I only expect a white rain event at the best. Just not cold enough to see accumulating snow this time of the year in the valleys.  The cold air  has  not been really locked in yet. Strictly an elevation event if it does occur--about 1500ft  for accumulating snow.   South Mtn range is my best guess at this time to see the best chance of accumulating snow in our area.  The big takeaway IMHO- it will finally feel like winter again, with highs in the mid to upper 30's and the heat will finally have come on. The GEM  sees something on the noon run but the snow hits at the very tail end of the storm. The GFS will be bouncing all over the place the next 5-7 days  typical with the govt shutdown for additional air soundings in the Pac west

On 10/31/2025 at 4:23 PM, Albedoman said:

noon runs look like an overrunning situation  possibly forming after a cold frontal passage near 11/13 with cold enuf temps to have  frozen precip. Something to watch. The cold frontal passage  on the 10th will bring hard freezes with temps in low 20's and high in the upper 30's. 

now it is showing up on tonights run. First flakes of the year?

noon runs look like an overunning situation  possibly forming after a cold frontal passage near 11/13 with cold enuf temps to have  frozen precip. Something to watch. The cold frontal passage  on the 10th will bring hard freezes with temps in low 20's and high in the upper 30's. 

8 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

Sandy redux on the 12z Canadian late next week. Could be some interesting days of tracking ahead.

All I know is this scenario model run better not happen. After looking at the CMC noon run, this would make Sandy look like a baby.  With all of the dead ash trees in Eastern PA  now and especially in the LV and urbanized and major riverine flooding,  this would be a one hell of a disaster for our area. I would see unbelievable debris dams in the waterways from these fallen limbs and trees that would wipe out major bridges in our area. The power outages would be unmanageable and you will not find a generator in stock for 250 miles from our region.  The fact this scenario is already showing up  for one week away warrants further discussion by all pro's. Even a slight hit would be a huge concern.  There will nothing left at the NJ beaches for next year beaachgoers and NYC will get one hell of test of its new subway drainage pumping system.  Definitely will keep an eye on these model runs as the media and so-called internet weather gurus on facebook/youtube   will play this up real good in the next few days if the the model runs continue to show this tonight and tomorrow. Can you say Panic? 

Just had a thundershower- light ---here in lower macungie

My forecast did suggest a slow start.  Enjoy the fall weather while you can.  Come january you will be wishing for temps above 45 .  I expect more mix events than anything else in late nov into mid dec as the pattern sets up for january

9 hours ago, JTA66 said:

I don’t recall, but I’ll say the girls.

Let’s face it, if I had the ball and a bunch of girls were chasing me with the objective of tackling me and rolling around in the mud…yeah, I’m not going to try my best to avoid that outcome.

9 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Mud football games are fun. My sister played in one during her senior year of high school as a running back. The next door neighbor was a junior in high school, and the running back of the other team. No one was able to stop either of them that day. My sister's team ended up winning.

Who won your game?

(Oh, and I bet you if Drought Guy was around when Gloria was happening, he'd be talking about how a drought was around the corner...)

sorry, I was not living here in PA at the time so I never experienced what was going on. I was down in Memphis Tn at the time. I had other hurricanes to deal with down there at the time Elena but more importantly, Memphis had over a foot of snow in one storm  in the winter of 85 . That would be like a 3 ft snow here.