Albedoman

I am starting to get concerned about precip right now again. We were essentially screwed out of some decent chances of rain the last few days and we really need it. The stream base flows are barely at normal in our local streams but the big issue is that little to no ground water recharge has taken place. These numerous back door cold fronts are dryer than a popcorn fart. Yes it is great to be 80 degrees the last two days but no decent rain events with the back door cold front is very troubling. This begs the question- where in the hell is all of the gulf moisture?  The farmers are worried as if this pattern keeps up, they will be turning their fields in the next few weeks with a giant cloud of dust.  Also, if you planted annuals the last few days, they will be destroyed with the frost/freeze on Wednesday morning with lows getting near 22 degrees here in the LV. Never plant annuals until after April 15 in our area.

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Where's a puke emoji when you need one???

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Buckle up:

our tulip snow 2-4 inches a good bet LMAO

15 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Garbage showers

I agree, nothing burger. The air was just not unstable enough today. The northern areas need the rain too. At least there has been no wind issues- I so sick of picking up limbs in the yard

19 hours ago, MGorse said:

SPC outlook for tomorrow.

Mike, I expect a tornado watch or severe thunderstorm watches to be issued by 3pm in our area. Unlike last weeks storm event, the sun will be coming out in the next few hours based on the satellites imagery. The chances of severe weather will double when this happens with the unstabilized  air mass in place.  I would expect many severe t- storm warnings this evening becuase of it. Its already sunny near Harrisburg. Not a good sign.  This forum will be lighting up later this evening with the severe weather reports. I see Hagerstown MD has a high in the low 80's.  Just prime for tornado formation too.

1 hour ago, MGorse said:

Yup, I had the backdoor open before the squall arrived and could hear the roar of the wind approaching. Classic low-topped squall line. 

The power went out at my house for about 2.5 hours. Power flashes- winds at hurricane force. Have not seen straight lines winds like that since Sandy. The low top squall line sounded like a freight train before hit -  reminded of the tornados back in the 1980's in the MId-South. Over 28,000 residents without power at 11 pm in Lehigh County at one time. I spent 35 minutes just picking up tree limbs around the house that I could see. It was sleeting and snowing when I was cleaning but has now stopped. The power flashes was the dominoe effect from the fuses blowing all at the same time after talking to PPL guys near  my house.

51 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Meanwhile, heavy snow falling in western PA at this time. 

Mike, I feel that many in the forum will be shocked how quickly the temps will drop by 1 am. I must admit I called for the squally moderate rain weather as the sun never showed its face. Nice downpours but brief. We need every ounce of the liquid sunshine right now. The next round in an hour or so will bring  brief but destructive downdrafts with the frontal passage. many will be discussing the straight line wind issues. However, the big talk will be the huge wet snowflakes to follow about an  hour after the frontal passage as the cold air is finally catching up to the actual front now.  I expect an inch or even more on the grass  surafces by sunrise here in the LV. 

4 hours ago, MGorse said:

Except that southeast flow will increase the low-level rotation. In addition, this is a very dynamic system so not as much instability is needed for damaging storms. I do agree that the greatest severe risk is to our west and southwest. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out. 

 I agree mIke. Anything from the midwest  deep LP storm means business. Let see how much those southerly winds increase tomorrow afternoon.

37 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

Perhaps I am wrong, but based on experience I tend to be highly skeptical of these forecasts when there is an easterly flow off the very cold Atlantic ocean. That is a stable air flow in March. The forecasts stubbornly have rain tonight. It likely will not happen until the flow is southerly (later in the am.) Hopefully the action heats in the afternoon, but I have a hard time believing we have anything beyond mist until then.

Yes I agree,  the clody maritime SE fetch is going to destroy the instability factor east of the Blue Mts. No sunshine = no severe weather. The race is on if the sun comes out before the storms hit our area.  I see a duration of light to moderate rain until late in the afternoon as the best bet.  Rumbles of thunder and heavier downpours tomorrow evening with squallywinds at frontal passage . Anyone west of York/Lancaster, watchout.  Tornado watches west of Berks county a good bet

29 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2009-10 is the only one of those seasons that was really el nino.

1993-94 and 2013-14 were ENSO neutrals, and 2020-21 was a deep moderate la nina.

The 1983 and 2016 storms are the only ones that were in el nino.

The 1993 storm was an ENSO neutral, and the 2021 one was in that deep moderate la nina of 20-21.

I guess the point I am making, is all of the years were either were going in or out of an el nino. It really does not matter until late october or early  November anyway to call the upcoming winter. SST and the SJS controll the el nino anaywat.  The best way to know is wait until late Novmeber and if Baja LP go to the 4 corners- watch out baby for Miller A's.  The place that gets hosed the worst in the US is the mid south- some of the worst winter tornadoes in the country occur in November and December in the Memphis area in a raging el nino. I have experienced that too-- the infamous W Memphis Tornado in 1987 with massive flooding right after.  The only time I witnessed 18 wheelers stacked on the second floor of a hotel after the tornado hit the truck stop and the huge I 40/55  interstate overhead signs twisted like licorice. What gets me is in all of those years above, I also had to shovel out  in  every one of those storms - el nino or not.  To make outragous predictions this far in advance is complete stupidity. I guess that is why he is on TV

In the case of our Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), there was one really oddball El Niño episode that maximized during the late summer/early fall in 1987. This El Niño is also unusual because it spanned two consecutive winters (1986-87 and 1987-88).

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=850325316247225

way too early to even say things like that. Let him sleep while we dig out. Some of the biggest snowfalls ocucr during a raging Nino here. here is my proof. He needs to go to school

• 1993–1994: 75.2 inches (The all-time record for seasonal snowfall).
• 2009–2010: 59.8 inches (Includes the "Snowmageddon" period).
• 2013–2014: 68.1 inches.
• 2020–2021: 58.1 inches. 
   

• January 22–23, 2016: 31.7 inches — The biggest two-day snowfall in Lehigh Valley history (often referred to as "Snowzilla" or Winter Storm Jonas).
• February 1–2, 2021: 27.3 inches — The second-largest recorded snowfall event.
• February 11–12, 1983: 25.2 inches — A massive nor'easter during a strong El Niño year.
• March 13–14, 1993: 17.6 inches — Known as the "Storm of the Century". 
   

now this video is something I never seen in my 67 years of living today. A F-2/3 tornado hitting Michigan in early March next to a body of water being completly frozen. How weird is that?   https://www.facebook.com/reel/911913728151145

37 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I would think days and days of slowly melting snow the ground must be drenched?

 

 

I hope so

first decent heavy rain event in 3.5 months for LV.  We really need this rain and it will soak into the unfrozen ground this time. This really will help the drought situation and farmers fields and will bringing up the base flows in the streams. 

4 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Damn Warm people creating new Spring threads too early! It's Winter damnit! We are not METS so continue winter! I'm glad it's in the 40s/drizzle and overcast and hope it continues! Hell, we only receive a solid 2-3 month of possible cold/cloudy/snowy winter weather per year so why are these idiots want to rush into Spring? June, July and August I understand but early March? F-that! Hope this spring is cold. miserable and damp!

 

In 2026, the first day of astronomical spring (vernal equinox) in the Northern Hemisphere is Friday, March 20, at 10:46 a.m. EDT.  I expect a ton of backdoor coldfronts, foggy days and miserbale cold/cloudy drizzle  rains in the next month.  A 70 degree day with sun will be a rarity until the pattern changes in late March. Would not be suprised to see overruning mixed precip events the next two weeks too with 3-6 wet snows.  We have not even had a dafodill snow event yet let alone a tulip/onion snow and posters are saying that winter is over. This what I have to say about that https://www.google.com/search?q=john+belusho+germans+bombing+peral+harbor&oq=john+belusho+germans+bombing+peral+harbor&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIICAEQABgWGB4yCAgCEAAYFhgeMg0IAxAAGIYDGIAEGIoFMg0IBBAAGIYDGIAEGIoFMg0IBRAAGIYDGIAEGIoFMg0IBhAAGIYDGIAEGIoFMgcIBxAAGO8FMgoICBAAGIAEGKIEMgoICRAAGIAEGKIE0gEKMTQ3MzhqMGoxNagCCLACAfEFvcZ-XV7KWAI&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:6c04cf49,vid:V8lT1o0sDwI,st:0

4 hours ago, rcostell said:

Despite dire predictions by some- no ice jams locally again this year. Gradual warmup, no flooding rains and sunshine already have already had their effect. Local rivers in good shape. Ice in mid Delaware River is about gone, for example.


.

This is how close we almost got wacked with ice jams this year. This picture  is from the Upper PA forum this afternoon. If we had had the precip pattern that we normally are accustomed to,  the Delaware River would have looked like this all the way to Ft Washington, This was taken on the Susequehanna in Luzerne County. The extreme cold with no precip for 3-5 weeks is still unbeleivable.  I believe after March 15, the precip machine will finally turn on for us.  The drought warning  that we are in is basically for groundwater issues as there has no groundwater recharge since last summer. 

Friends, the drought guy here has shown my experience now. I  finally had enought time the last few weeks to gather my educational background information to provide the board with earning my met tag. Thanks guys

1 minute ago, anthonyweather said:

This just might be the cutoff


.

look where S Mtn range is - where the heaviest returns are

17 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

You should go sit in front of his house in a lawn chair


.

3 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

That’s funny, but I do not know his house. I remember him posting about his displeasure with the NWS not providing ample flood warnings along that creek since he lives along it.

That issue with the flood warnings has been  resolved over two years ago. Worked with the USGS and Mt Holly setting up criteria for issuing flood warnings for the new USGS solared powered telemetry flood guaging stations near my backyard  on Spring creek and the Little lehigh Creek.  The most accurate guages in the system IMHO.  I have down to the .5 ft of height to the 100 and 500 yr floodplain levels

12 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Based on the info drought guy has given us I think he lives on the mountain south of Macungie. This is the type of storm where he should get a couple inches more than us just because of terrain enhanced snow.

  I live near Rt 100.  about 2 miles from bear creek.  As I said  in an earlier post,  Heavy Snow rates and the banding due to orographic lifting over S Mtn range with a SE fetch.  Its all physical geography. Yes, it is puking snow right now 2-3 inches already. Flakes are fluffy

Comment all you want  at each of the BS model issues , debbbie downers and upbeat amounts posting. Have fun. This old timer only looks at one one model right now  ---the NAM and I am also someone convinced of the HRRR lately at this range.   - all the rest are garbage for this type of storm event. I have seen and experienced all of the biggies from 1983, 2010, 2021 etc. At this range it is usually  the NAM.  While it appears a little on the high side right now at these OZ runs tonight,  its going to be close depending who gets the deformation bands. These bands tend to fire up along the S Mtn range too so watch out - there will be screw zones.   This map seems very plausible to me after doing this for 35+years

Where is the thundersnow guys?  This will be a defintley in the cards too.  Sleet may cut the totals along the coast  in the heavier bands

river does not divide- geography does. S Mountains will be the dumping ground with oragraphic lifting and banding

3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

DT went 6-10" west and 10-15 east of the Delaware River

 

Why do guys even listen to him? MY god, it like listening to this  the most annoying sound in the world 

1 hour ago, MGorse said:

Blizzard watches no longer exist. 

Thanks Mike - I forgot.  Still used to travelers advisories in my old age. The conditions will be ripe for blizzzard conditions thats for sure anyway.