Albedoman

Mike Gorse, fwiw,--the current point forecast for Ancient Oaks in Lehigh County   does not display the current flood warning- strangeIt maybe because Its for Perkiomen stream only and not the Little lehigh. I guess  Thanks

https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/trep1

2.25 inches of rain at my house - Spring Creek is at flood stage and rising quickly. Been a long time since we have reached flood stage. Yes I will declare this drought over guys at this time. These long duration rains are now bringing up the base flows of the streams. Corn is coming up nicely in my area of Lehigh County. If the farmer is trying to plant it now, it could be a loss. The loss however is not just the rain but with the extreme cooler temps. Usually by now, we have temps in the mid to upper 80's with a few days of 90's.   In fact, we maybe back in the 40's for overnight lows and highs only in the upper 60's for June 1   ------ Coolest I have seen for us in June but it does save on the AC bills. But after Wednesday, we go back into the oven.  Watch the mold counts grow big time. 

I attended the Iron Pigs game last night.  Cold unstable air mass showers popping up throughout the game.  Observed three rainbows  with one of them being a double rainbow. However, if you look directly over the US foods advertising board, in these photos in right field, there appears to be a cold air funnel forming with the cold unstable air mass in place. I would like Mike and his team to look at these photos for verification. It did not appear to be a simple rain shaft but actually appeared to have rotation and looked like a funnel. If this was indeed a cold air funnel, this would be extreme for our area  but I would not doubt its formation with this very  cold unstable air mass above in late May.

10 hours ago, RedSky said:

Long range pattern is wet drought guy will need to retire

 

LMAO- Guess its time to change my alias to flood guy now 

1 hour ago, MGorse said:

The tornado was not rated yet. 

Thanks Mike I should have said "possible"  left out the word.  Sorry.  It appears to be an EF0 after looking at the tree damage video more closely but FWIW to shear of tree tops and twist them  like that would have easily destroyed a home if the funnel  actually reached the ground  and was not over a forested area, which why I said  a possible EFI .   

well even though Macungie got zilcho rain from this storm, Bangor area in Northampton County got hail and an EF1 tornado that was on video. Tree tops sheared right off and twisted (not straight line wind damage) and no doubt that it was a tornado with hail  from this very localized supercell -should have chased that one down. Mt holly storm damage specialists I am sure will out there to inspect tomorrow. 

https://www.wfmz.com/weather/it-took-out-almost-every-tree-on-my-property-tornado-touches-down-in-northampton-county/article_8f50d7e4-d6a2-4ae0-9709-dd23a3a73bc7.html#tncms-source=More-from-newsroom-(right-column)

nothing but sprinkles here today in Macungie.  Missed everything. Total four day is .46 in---- Storms to the west and east and we got the 4-10 split. Well better luck next time. When are we ever going to have a decent NW to SE squall line come through? Everything is hit and miss in our region I literally cannot remember when a squall line preceded a cold front as so many squall lines have went ---poof ---before hitting the Blue Mts.

9 hours ago, LVLion77 said:

Well, Sunday and Monday were highly inaccurate forecasts with 0.08” yesterday and a 0.00 today. Still convinced the east wind has stabilized the atmosphere to the point that heavy showers and tstorms are unable to form in this quadrant of this system. We go to a more southerly flow on Tuesday, which should be more conducive to heavier rain.

absolutely agree. Forecast models have continually failed with wind speed and direction since last year.  The LR and even the SR computer models need to be calibrated to not just look at temps and precip atmospheric profiles and soundings but should consider the most critical feature- the role of surface topography and overall natural physical geography of our area. 

For example when a SE to S direction fetch of wind is prevalent for hours or days, the models should compare the geography of the area and bias should be added for chances of higher precip values(especially in training t-storms or froneneis for snowfall predictions )  in certain regions of the entire forecast area for MT Holly.  The same goes with a direct east wind in which literally prevents t storms from from the west to cross over the Blue Mts. Physical Geography features plays a vital part in local forecasting for our area and atmospheric modeling needs to be vastly improved to include and or be more accurately biased when using pin point forecasting, especially with wind direction speed for upsloping and downsloping of the mountain ranges and deeper valleys.  Simplistic terms- need a better algorithm for physical geography features rather than just using transportation networks to identify different forecasts for different aras. Thats why Macungie to Huffs Church area are constantly having inaccurate forecasting  for either high or low temps and or precip values and types  because the pin-point forecast do not include the topography for S Mtn range as a dividing line for precip or for different forecasts.  Everything is now based on I-78, I-80 and PA turnpike transportation areas when formulating and discussing the local forecasts.

IMHO, MT Holly /NOAA needs to reconsider relying more on physical geography/topography when discussing LV forecasts and not  just referring to major transportation networks. FWIW, transportation networks literally bore through local mountain ranges by tunnels or by steep climbing lanes and built to go in different directions. I -78 is a perfect example of how dividing forecast areas is incorrect as it goes from SW to NE and then goes directly E to West. It literally bisects the S Mt Range in the heart of the LV.  The NE turnpike is a N to S directional road which is usually only brought into the picture on types of winter precip or from storms along the coast--- yet both of these highways go through the heart of the LV.. Hopefully you see the problem of using transportation networks as delimiting line for producing local forecasts in the LV. 

Best examples of my reasoning- how many times have you personally gone through the Lehigh Tunnel and on one side it is snowing and the other side it is clear?  How many times have you gone on RT 29/Rt 100 through  Shimerville or Huffs Church and it has 2 in of snow on the ground  but you get to the Macungie and Emmaus and or East Greenville  and it is raining? Physical Geography plays a vital part in weather  forecasting and personally believe not enough attention has been given to this  fact based on our vast local regional forecasting area that MT Holly must cover.  This is not the fault of the MT Holly staff at all  but federal govt decisions made back in the early 90's to do away with the Allentown weather forecast office at LVIA. This was a huge mistake and I was against  this change but it was a lost cause. The politicians simply did not care or understand the role of physical geography has on the the LV . That is why I am so outspoken at times about the LV. The "fall Line"" basically stops at S MT range and any thing north of that that is also in a valley which has very unique weather forecasting difficulties such as extreme diurnal and nocturnal temp ranges from the deeper valleys especially with upsloping and downsloping conditions in major storm events including wind storms, fog, freezing rain and even snow accumulations. LV is unique. 

4 hours ago, LVLion77 said:

Just an observation. Each time the precip forecast missed badly this spring, like today, we had an easterly wind here in the LV. I am no meteorologist and I could be very wrong, but this time of the year that east wind equals a cool stable flow off the Atlantic. Perhaps that is the factor that blows up a number of these forecast? Upstate NY seems to have gotten our forecasted heavy rains today. We are forecasted to have east winds Monday as well.


I agree, east winds are death notice for t storms. However, SE winds can bring some good training t storms in the summer or even in the winter, usually from a tropical system or Nor'easter - which is no where to be found now. A strong east wind brings in mid stratus clouds resulting in low amounts of daytime heating  for firing up convective type storms. Its like a blocking wall and usually extends to the Blue Mts. Thats why I keep mentioning the topography in my posts about the Blue Mts.  The best training t storms comes when we have a se to south flow of winds 8 hours before the precip  gets here.  Thats what happened on this date below when 2 in hail caused $20,000 damage to my roof and cars from a training t storm https://www.weather.gov/phi/EventReview20190529

1 hour ago, LVLion77 said:

Surprised to see the sun this evening. 0.08” during the day from sprinkles and light showers. Precip forecasts for tomorrow and Tuesday are significantly reduced now. I wonder if the accuracy of forecasts will increase with advanced AI.

I agree. From 2-4 inches to less than an inch for the LV and points north. I received a whopping .02 more rain than you today.  Hell, the new small leaves on the trees kept the street dry. There were more pollen sacs in the street from last nights gusty winds and brief heavy shower that I thought the township could bring out the plow.  Training of t storms is not in the cards anytime soon. 

No way does even 2 in even verify today. Absolutely no training of t storms. Air is too stable and too dry. Just enough rain to keep the pollen down today.  I only had a .40  inch of rain yesterday- very localized.  2 day total --.70 inch of rain. Still no drought buster rains for sure but it does help the garden.

36 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Nice round of soaking rain and storms tonight, and there's more coming. Even more in the next few days. Drought guy must be ecstatic.

thundershower with gusty winds 25-30 mph now.  Not severe but a nice t shower Need much more.

holy crap a cell made it over the Blue Mts. I may actually experience a  thundershower in the next 30 minutes. Its in eastern Berks near Kutztown. C'mon baby my air  needs to cleaned out of pollen and the pollen cement dust needs to goo bye bye off my car.

Blue mts deztroyed storms again tonight. Forecast is becoming doubtful now

Missed again tonight. Had to water-Its been a long time since I had to water a garden on the first day in May. The Blue Mts are absolutely destroying every cell that comes near them. Just incredible. 

OK Mt Holly, what do you guys have to say about this 40 degree diurnal temp change today?  Woke up at 38 degrees this morning with a projected high of nearly 80 degrees? Wow have not seen this range in temps in a 12 hour time frame in a very long time on a nice day.  Definitely living back in the CA Mojave desert environment in eastern PA from my younger days. 

19 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Nothing to rinse the pollen, it's time for the pollinator as in pollen everywhere

 

 

sorry, this song is not the same for my generation. here is the original song which was a top ten song and was played on foldgers coffee commercials.  

OMG what a utter failure.  Severe thunderstorm warning issued for Lehigh county-- all I got was a light shower of less than .05. Talk about a fast disintegrating squall line. As soon as it hit the Blue Mts, it was done for.  Totally unbelievable. It just does NOT want to rain anything harder than a light shower right now. It was just enough to make the pollen stick like concrete on the cars. Car washes are going to love this tomorrow.

32 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Had a ripping gust that moved deck furniture

40mph minimum more like 50 to do that

 

35+ constant winds like this are really drying out the underbrush big time again. Had only .20 at my house.  As tree leaf out continues in huge strides in  the next few weeks, no rain means that some streams and surface ponds will be dry by mid-May in our area as any ground water is literally vacuumed out of the soil horizons from no rain and leaf out.  Then you will hear the people talk in the media about how this drought never really went away in late March  and still exists when their favorite fishing spot goes dry and private wells have to be re-drilled deeper.

I see no substantial Gulf moisture influence with 80 degree temps in the next two weeks in our area for heavy rainfall to be forecasted (over an inch).  This spells real trouble for us.  THIS VERY PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN JUST WILL NOT STOP. Cold fronts continue to stall out in the midwest and mid south every 2-3 days, dumping copious amounts of rain with thunderstorms  and then for some stupid  reason race across PA in 24 hours with continuing dying t - storms, with moisture availability gone in  a stable air mass, no convective issues and the precip becomes sparse with light showers/drizzle. But the real big issue are the winds behind these fronts being  absolutely crazy like tonight. I have had nearly 50 mph wind gusts.  Guess will have to wait for Memorial Day weekend to be rained out, as we usually get a stalled out  storm pattern to develop by this time.  

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Cool I have an outdoor thing tomorrow

 

My answer to you sir---- LMAO

38 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

You can't fix stupid

yep I knew it was some knucklehead that I said a few days ago.  Hope he now has to pay for this catastrophe too to the county (and not just serve time for arson), municipalities and other govt entities that are fighting this fire including the fire companies time and equipment. He will be broke. 

45 minutes ago, rcostell said:

Good morning.  You can call me Bob.  I'm happy you apologized to Mr. Gorse for your remarks. Well deserved.  That was the point of my comment that the mulch fire was not "major"- and especially that exaggeration of a fire caused by spontaneous combustion shouldn't be linked to NWS being negligent. Those were my only points. I see nowhere where I wrote those other things you linked me to.            

(As far as your attempts at "face- saving", above-  everyone on this board knows we have a rainfall deficit, its been windy, and its fire season.  I mentioned none of that- so don't imply I did.    The fire near Jim Thorpe was preexisting my comments- and the Ocean County fire is "major", although contained.   I grew up in the Pine Barrens- there are fires most years, especially during spring before leaf-out..its a neccessary part of the ecology here.  Your proclivity towards exaggeration and blaming folks for non-existent issues is noted.   Maybe stop trying to bite my ankles when you are already on the canvas. Its a bad look.)   

Your italicized comments were not necessary- only to add insult to your previous remarks. I am sorry feel this way. You seem to have a pattern of doing this on other forums too. Anyway you stated the NJ fire was contained in NJ- you could not be more wrong see link below this morning.  As far as as fires in the NJ pine barrens as a necessary part of ecology- the Pine Barrens does NOT have the same climate regime as S California. I lived in S. California for ten years and personally dealt with my own brush wildfires. If it they did have the same yearly climatology, S NJ EMS would be better prepared for such a major fire as the one today. Most likely this fire was caused by some knucklehead burning winter debris and not by natural causes like lightning. The Pine Barrens also do not have  highly flammable chaparral  type vegetation with 18 in of rain per year, just dense evergreen trees and typical underbrush found in our area with 40 in of rain a year. Large wild fires are not normal. 

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/jones-wildfire-ocean-county-new-jersey-ocean-township-lacey-township-barnegat-township/4166736/

After being criticized by an individual for not  taking a chill pill and  for saying the mulch fire was major fire and that I was blowing the fire possibilities  out of proportion with the current drought in the last few days, two  so called non-major wildfires are still going crazy. Jim Thorpe area   over 500 acres and now another non major fire in southern NJ. All I hear now is crickets at my house.

Also Mike Gorse, I must apologize to you and your staff as  I did not mean any disrespect toward you or your staff at MT Holly. I am really frustrated with this crappy weather pattern we are stuck in  for the past 9 months and did not mean to take it out toward MT Holly staff.  Many of the old weather hobbyists  have to be as frustrated as I am too as these daily 20-30 mph Santa Ana type winds with extreme diurnal temp ranges and no Gulf of America moisture source for storm convection  which has basically has been gone for nearly a year now.  I am also hoping  a special weather statement will be issued that considers the under-stories in the woods and nearby brushy fields are extremely dry right now regardless of any rain we received two weeks ago. The dry warm winds are sure not helping as evident by these fires. Thanks 

https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/jones-road-wildfire-new-jersey-shore-smoke-evacuations

https://www.inquirer.com/news/pennsylvania/jim-thorpe-pennsylvania-wildfire-20250422.html