Albedoman

My forecast did suggest a slow start.  Enjoy the fall weather while you can.  Come january you will be wishing for temps above 45 .  I expect more mix events than anything else in late nov into mid dec as the pattern sets up for january

9 hours ago, JTA66 said:

I don’t recall, but I’ll say the girls.

Let’s face it, if I had the ball and a bunch of girls were chasing me with the objective of tackling me and rolling around in the mud…yeah, I’m not going to try my best to avoid that outcome.

9 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Mud football games are fun. My sister played in one during her senior year of high school as a running back. The next door neighbor was a junior in high school, and the running back of the other team. No one was able to stop either of them that day. My sister's team ended up winning.

Who won your game?

(Oh, and I bet you if Drought Guy was around when Gloria was happening, he'd be talking about how a drought was around the corner...)

sorry, I was not living here in PA at the time so I never experienced what was going on. I was down in Memphis Tn at the time. I had other hurricanes to deal with down there at the time Elena but more importantly, Memphis had over a foot of snow in one storm  in the winter of 85 . That would be like a 3 ft snow here.

Million dollar t storms right now

5 hours ago, RedSky said:

This Afternoon

Forecast Sunny, with a high near 78. South wind around 5 mph.

 

Dense cloud cover all day not a ray. But not a complaint it's been the best weather ever for weeks and weeks

 

 

Drenching downpours are coming in the next two days says the drought guy. Million dollar rains for landscapers and for fall colors

9 hours ago, RedSky said:

Leaves are yellow and falling off the trees in the Wal Mart parking lot in mass. Too early looks strange.

Not included in the abnormally dry in the last drought maps i have seen which is bizarre it's a tinder box in the woods.

Drought guy were in trouble man

 

I am not too worried yet. Its dry like this on average years during this time frame.  Concerns:

1. Being a neutral year, we are in for a real cold and snowy winter which will definitely help the groundwater tables. See lots of northeaster's and the potential freezing rain/sleet  events early in December.  Expecting some nice rains by mid October as the warm pattern breaks down.  A good tropical storm up the east coast can really help get us out this stubborn pattern.

2. The leaves are scorched brown and falling off. No color until we have temps in the 40's again and highs only in the low 60's. Do not see that happening  until the second week of October folks.  

3. I agree. We need some decent rain by Wednesday, otherwise burn bans will likely go into effect in the next week or so. The canopies are dry and the scorched leaves  falling are not helping. 

4.  Even the tent caterpillars died off in this early warm spell before autumn.  This is been the latest I have run the AC in a real long time as overnight lows struggle to get to the 50's

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Drought guy wrong again. I've been drought free since March 5.

what are talking about?  The drought ended back in July for the LV.  Hell, I had 2.5 in of rain two days ago at my house. I would be more worried about us having a neutral winter this year  and record cold  come mid December . Enjoy your Halloween as the frigid air will come back near Thanksgiving this winter with more nor'easter chances.

2.15 inches at house  in LMT= still raining

Getting hammered. Best t storms in a long time. Lighting hitting homes in our area. Thunder shaking the whole house. Picked up nearly an inch so far. This rain helped the corn and soybean yields

21 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

Wow, did not expect nearly an inch of rain this evening. A welcome surprise and good fortune in the center of that band of heavy showers heading into very dry weather pattern.

1.25  at my house. Nice steady downpours tonight. There is no drought now with over 3.5 in the past week.  The soybeans are the greenest I have seen them in a long time. Dewpoints in the 40's will be welcomed- more evening fires in the fire pit. 

https://www.mcall.com/2025/08/13/severe-storms-lehigh-valley-power-outages/

2.45 in of rain thus far. Million dollar rain for the spike corned

holy snikes. I am getting shit kicked out of me as far as downpours.go.  It is raining at a full 2 inches+ an hour here  in lower macungie at 4:45 pm. Flash flood warnings will be issued soon.

I am still waiting for a winter storm warning event LOL.  You know its dry when another sinkhole opens up a 100 ft wide  crater right across the street from the Amazon Center in Palmer Township.  The hurricane in a few weeks will take care of any drought conditions. Planting grass seed is impossible in these conditions. This is seal your driveway or paint the fence weather dry and hot.

Drought guy says cmon baby. Only a major hurricane  riding up the coast will be our savior. The corn is already spiking in western lehigh county. Everone else east of s mountain got inches of rain as we got zilch .....lots of complaints about turning off the normal rain pattern in july. This what you get brown lawns everwhere here in lower macungie. We have been the screw zone since mid july. 

Mike Gorse, fwiw,--the current point forecast for Ancient Oaks in Lehigh County   does not display the current flood warning- strangeIt maybe because Its for Perkiomen stream only and not the Little lehigh. I guess  Thanks

https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/trep1

2.25 inches of rain at my house - Spring Creek is at flood stage and rising quickly. Been a long time since we have reached flood stage. Yes I will declare this drought over guys at this time. These long duration rains are now bringing up the base flows of the streams. Corn is coming up nicely in my area of Lehigh County. If the farmer is trying to plant it now, it could be a loss. The loss however is not just the rain but with the extreme cooler temps. Usually by now, we have temps in the mid to upper 80's with a few days of 90's.   In fact, we maybe back in the 40's for overnight lows and highs only in the upper 60's for June 1   ------ Coolest I have seen for us in June but it does save on the AC bills. But after Wednesday, we go back into the oven.  Watch the mold counts grow big time. 

I attended the Iron Pigs game last night.  Cold unstable air mass showers popping up throughout the game.  Observed three rainbows  with one of them being a double rainbow. However, if you look directly over the US foods advertising board, in these photos in right field, there appears to be a cold air funnel forming with the cold unstable air mass in place. I would like Mike and his team to look at these photos for verification. It did not appear to be a simple rain shaft but actually appeared to have rotation and looked like a funnel. If this was indeed a cold air funnel, this would be extreme for our area  but I would not doubt its formation with this very  cold unstable air mass above in late May.

10 hours ago, RedSky said:

Long range pattern is wet drought guy will need to retire

 

LMAO- Guess its time to change my alias to flood guy now 

1 hour ago, MGorse said:

The tornado was not rated yet. 

Thanks Mike I should have said "possible"  left out the word.  Sorry.  It appears to be an EF0 after looking at the tree damage video more closely but FWIW to shear of tree tops and twist them  like that would have easily destroyed a home if the funnel  actually reached the ground  and was not over a forested area, which why I said  a possible EFI .   

well even though Macungie got zilcho rain from this storm, Bangor area in Northampton County got hail and an EF1 tornado that was on video. Tree tops sheared right off and twisted (not straight line wind damage) and no doubt that it was a tornado with hail  from this very localized supercell -should have chased that one down. Mt holly storm damage specialists I am sure will out there to inspect tomorrow. 

https://www.wfmz.com/weather/it-took-out-almost-every-tree-on-my-property-tornado-touches-down-in-northampton-county/article_8f50d7e4-d6a2-4ae0-9709-dd23a3a73bc7.html#tncms-source=More-from-newsroom-(right-column)

nothing but sprinkles here today in Macungie.  Missed everything. Total four day is .46 in---- Storms to the west and east and we got the 4-10 split. Well better luck next time. When are we ever going to have a decent NW to SE squall line come through? Everything is hit and miss in our region I literally cannot remember when a squall line preceded a cold front as so many squall lines have went ---poof ---before hitting the Blue Mts.

9 hours ago, LVLion77 said:

Well, Sunday and Monday were highly inaccurate forecasts with 0.08” yesterday and a 0.00 today. Still convinced the east wind has stabilized the atmosphere to the point that heavy showers and tstorms are unable to form in this quadrant of this system. We go to a more southerly flow on Tuesday, which should be more conducive to heavier rain.

absolutely agree. Forecast models have continually failed with wind speed and direction since last year.  The LR and even the SR computer models need to be calibrated to not just look at temps and precip atmospheric profiles and soundings but should consider the most critical feature- the role of surface topography and overall natural physical geography of our area. 

For example when a SE to S direction fetch of wind is prevalent for hours or days, the models should compare the geography of the area and bias should be added for chances of higher precip values(especially in training t-storms or froneneis for snowfall predictions )  in certain regions of the entire forecast area for MT Holly.  The same goes with a direct east wind in which literally prevents t storms from from the west to cross over the Blue Mts. Physical Geography features plays a vital part in local forecasting for our area and atmospheric modeling needs to be vastly improved to include and or be more accurately biased when using pin point forecasting, especially with wind direction speed for upsloping and downsloping of the mountain ranges and deeper valleys.  Simplistic terms- need a better algorithm for physical geography features rather than just using transportation networks to identify different forecasts for different aras. Thats why Macungie to Huffs Church area are constantly having inaccurate forecasting  for either high or low temps and or precip values and types  because the pin-point forecast do not include the topography for S Mtn range as a dividing line for precip or for different forecasts.  Everything is now based on I-78, I-80 and PA turnpike transportation areas when formulating and discussing the local forecasts.

IMHO, MT Holly /NOAA needs to reconsider relying more on physical geography/topography when discussing LV forecasts and not  just referring to major transportation networks. FWIW, transportation networks literally bore through local mountain ranges by tunnels or by steep climbing lanes and built to go in different directions. I -78 is a perfect example of how dividing forecast areas is incorrect as it goes from SW to NE and then goes directly E to West. It literally bisects the S Mt Range in the heart of the LV.  The NE turnpike is a N to S directional road which is usually only brought into the picture on types of winter precip or from storms along the coast--- yet both of these highways go through the heart of the LV.. Hopefully you see the problem of using transportation networks as delimiting line for producing local forecasts in the LV. 

Best examples of my reasoning- how many times have you personally gone through the Lehigh Tunnel and on one side it is snowing and the other side it is clear?  How many times have you gone on RT 29/Rt 100 through  Shimerville or Huffs Church and it has 2 in of snow on the ground  but you get to the Macungie and Emmaus and or East Greenville  and it is raining? Physical Geography plays a vital part in weather  forecasting and personally believe not enough attention has been given to this  fact based on our vast local regional forecasting area that MT Holly must cover.  This is not the fault of the MT Holly staff at all  but federal govt decisions made back in the early 90's to do away with the Allentown weather forecast office at LVIA. This was a huge mistake and I was against  this change but it was a lost cause. The politicians simply did not care or understand the role of physical geography has on the the LV . That is why I am so outspoken at times about the LV. The "fall Line"" basically stops at S MT range and any thing north of that that is also in a valley which has very unique weather forecasting difficulties such as extreme diurnal and nocturnal temp ranges from the deeper valleys especially with upsloping and downsloping conditions in major storm events including wind storms, fog, freezing rain and even snow accumulations. LV is unique. 

4 hours ago, LVLion77 said:

Just an observation. Each time the precip forecast missed badly this spring, like today, we had an easterly wind here in the LV. I am no meteorologist and I could be very wrong, but this time of the year that east wind equals a cool stable flow off the Atlantic. Perhaps that is the factor that blows up a number of these forecast? Upstate NY seems to have gotten our forecasted heavy rains today. We are forecasted to have east winds Monday as well.


I agree, east winds are death notice for t storms. However, SE winds can bring some good training t storms in the summer or even in the winter, usually from a tropical system or Nor'easter - which is no where to be found now. A strong east wind brings in mid stratus clouds resulting in low amounts of daytime heating  for firing up convective type storms. Its like a blocking wall and usually extends to the Blue Mts. Thats why I keep mentioning the topography in my posts about the Blue Mts.  The best training t storms comes when we have a se to south flow of winds 8 hours before the precip  gets here.  Thats what happened on this date below when 2 in hail caused $20,000 damage to my roof and cars from a training t storm https://www.weather.gov/phi/EventReview20190529

1 hour ago, LVLion77 said:

Surprised to see the sun this evening. 0.08” during the day from sprinkles and light showers. Precip forecasts for tomorrow and Tuesday are significantly reduced now. I wonder if the accuracy of forecasts will increase with advanced AI.

I agree. From 2-4 inches to less than an inch for the LV and points north. I received a whopping .02 more rain than you today.  Hell, the new small leaves on the trees kept the street dry. There were more pollen sacs in the street from last nights gusty winds and brief heavy shower that I thought the township could bring out the plow.  Training of t storms is not in the cards anytime soon.