Albedoman

13 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Man oh man, I wish you were my teacher in grade/high school. Even the slightly above average students would receive  an A which they didn’t earn…

36f

The winter deserves an A-  with a big the help of a huge   class curve given by the teacher based on all of the misses the last three weeks with potential storms. Its like we have three  bad tests of potential winter storms and the teacher is throwing them out to raise the average class scores to achieve an A- with the cold temps and snow cover. lol

57 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I was thinking Mike Seidel from the weather channel at first till I smacked the cobwebs outta my brain.

You probably could be a red tagger if you upload your fancy degree paperwork stuff...

23F/Sunny

 

thanks,  maybe if I get time in the next few days I will

3 hours ago, RedSky said:

Also flood guy and drift guy

Its time you guys know who I really am. I have hidden my past experiences but you will hear much more about me in the upcoming months as I am dealing directly with data centers in municipalities. 

MY name Mike Siegel  aka the "albedoman -drought guy whatever" . I chose albedoman because my Uncle had to deal directly with the albedo effect when forecasting the potential for forest fires and temp regimes studies in the western US.  He wrote several papers on this topic as well as others and at one time directed the entire Western Region of NOAA. This person  underlined below is  my  weather mentor and also is my Uncle. He is 83.

I have degree in physical geography- concentration in atmospheric sciences and environmental science (not too many meteorology schols back in the late 70's) with  a minor in geology and post graduate work in satellite imagery with a ton of hours and certifications in Environmental science and urban planning. I was also an air traffic controller in the Navy. My resume is several pages long and have written magazine articles and publish papers at Penn State dealing with stormwater issues involving bioengineering and recently authored Lowhill Township's Zoning and Land Development Ordinances as their planning consultant.  I have been around the block.

I recently came out of retirement in 2025 to serve as the Township Manager of Lowhill Township, Lehigh County by accepting an offer I just could not refuse. I did retire in 2010  from Lower Providence Township in Montgomery County as their Director of Planning and Development and was the Building Codes  directer and zoning officer.

David E. Olsen was a meteorologist associated with the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS). Historical U.S. government and NOAA technical documents list him as the author of meteorological forecast reports such as “Forecasting Maximum Temperatures at Helena, Montana” dating back to the late 1960s, indicating he worked in operational forecasting and climate-related analysis for the Weather Service. Individuals like Olsen typically served as Meteorologist or Meteorologist in Charge at an NWS Weather Forecast Office, producing forecast guidance and contributing to regional temperature forecasts and related climatological studies.

13 hours ago, RedSky said:

Oh nelly wind blew over chip the 30ft ice cream man on 309 in Coopersburg 

https://www.mcall.com/2026/02/07/giant-chip-split-high-winds-inside-scoop-coopersburg/

On 2/1/2026 at 7:11 PM, Albedoman said:

Pattern change  6-12"  2/14-17 time period 

 I am still on board with this prediction guys,  My biggest concern is really severe ice jamming and floods by March.  If this pattern even hints at relaxing and opening the Gulf of America with moisture, we are in some deep flooding shit folks with ice jammming.  Bridges may go down throughout the region and the folks on Adams Island on the Lehigh River in the LV, their homes will be destroyed  and or flooded.  The ice jams that I remeber while I was the Twp manager in Lower Mt Bethel Township, I saw mobile homes and cars 40 feet in the air  stuck in trees. Its going to be really really bad if we get a quick warmup with flooding rains after this pattern change, especially around the 22nd time period. 

Pattern change  6-12"  2/14-17 time period 

while all of you are worried about the next 2-6 inch snow event, I am telling you all right now and I have been saying this for two months, being laughed and joked about is the potential for record breaking Ice jams on the Delaware and other rivers that are  going to be FEMA disaster damaging. Even  the Little Lehigh creek IMBY which is 85% spring fed and has been never frozen in my entire 40 years that I have lived year, is frozen solid. That is bad folks. Ice jam warnings will be issued because you all know that one good warm spell will be coming toward Presidents Day.  How bad is this situation now?  As a member of the EOC in Lehigh County and a Township  manager this situation is becoming pretty fricking serious right now.  Need proof? Well here you go in the link below that is not public knowledge.  Also , nobody is talking about saltwater  intrusion on the Delaware right now?  Many muncipalities may be out of drinking water real soon with the ice jams as water relases cannot be performed. 

• Location of Salt Front: The salt front has moved approximately 20 miles north of its typical position, closer to Philadelphia, PA, and Camden, NJ.
• Cause: Driven by drought conditions and reduced freshwater flow, allowing for higher upstream migration of sea salt.
• Action Taken: The Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) is using water from upstream reservoirs to push the salt front back down.
• Water Quality: Despite the intrusion, officials have been able to protect drinking water intakes, although the situation requires active management. 

https://view.em.silvi.com/?vawpToken=RX366I5XGK2UVGXG6FTSFNFRJE.130014

without proper data sampling, this model watching is useless. The NYC forum posters are jumping of the Verazzano right now after tonights runs. If the 12Z models tomorrow do show some slight improvment, this will be a fish storm.  I would want to see the OZ NAM run  tommorrow night at 72 hours. IF the LP is at the benchmark then, game on. Going to bed

38 minutes ago, Newman said:

Top 3 CIPS analogs this afternoon based on the 12z GFS:

1. Jan 2016

2. BDB 2010

3. Jan 1996

There's my weenie contribution for the day, because yes we have time to draw this back NW but the Euro remaining put doesn't inspire confidence.

Jan 2016  is the best comparison   96 was a differnent animal as it dug in more with the trough and sucked up the GOA moisture too

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

And here we go again! I’m not tired yet!!!

(Although I’d like this to hold off till later Saturday evening since I have to drive back from State College that day.)

the most appropriate video clip for all of us right now----rolling rolling keep those doggies coming

9 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Here I am... like groundhogs day.... on TT looking at the colors waiting for frames to load

Albedo man says-- Ain't going to do jack shit - pessimistic attitude  gotta love it?  LOL

1 hour ago, Fields27 said:

Well if there is any model I'd feel confident leading the way it's the Euro.

Also where the hell would we go with all the snow?! My god that would shut down the entire northeast. All good problems BTW.

Strap in!

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk
 

This would cause this biggest G dam flood and end in chance of a drought for a year. 96 all over again.  I am done with snow for awhile.  A federal disaster would have to be issued and the resulting melt and thaw with any rain over a couple of  inches would blow out every fricking bridge on the Delaware. 

Next big worrk folks other than this BS run of the Euro,  ice jams.  The base flows are low in the streams, nearly 2ft of snow on the ground north of  S Mtn and 3-5 days of below zero weather and highs not even cracking 26 degrees.  The Delaware, Lehigh and especially the Susquehanna are frozen over now or close to it.  The media is going to go crazy. I did not say Schulkill because the cooling waters from the industrial treatments plants from Limerick ,Oaks and Reading may keep the water warm enough in that river from freezing over.

This mix should be this way until 9pm as the secondary starts wrapping up. As it pulls away 2-4 in may happen in the LV. Then comes the serious drifting and really cold temps again 

back to snow nice flakes  Over a foot now.

1 minute ago, sibbley said:

You don't have wind?

 Just kidding. I was criticized a few days of this threat and many  posters said i was off my rocker that this was not going to be a problem. They will find out the hard way tommorow evening when the blowing snow may keep the schools closed Tuesday  too.

1 minute ago, sibbley said:

Sleet/Snow mix in Bushkill Township. 7.3F all day. Temp hasn't really budged. Had to switch to oil heat as the AC/Heat unit was getting iced up. Hard to tell how much snow fell with the drifting. Maybe 7-8 inches.

what drifting?  LOL

16 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said:

Thumping snow east of Lancaster city, Lanco. Lots of blowing and drifting. 

what?  that blowing and drifting must not supposed to happen according to many of the posters  I am shocked.  LMAO

6.5 in so far. Just went out plowed the first round here in macungie

56 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Adam Joseph said don’t shovel.

Deanna Durante said to shovel in stages.

Wating for Fred Schropshire to weigh in.

they all are shoveling BS --why in the hell would anyone would even listen to them on this board is beyond me. so called weather gurus hogwash. They would not even know what derecho or a haboob is. They simply regurgitate NWS info for 1000 grand or more a year in a camera. OnlyChannel 10 Mr Schwartz -retired and I knew him personally  has a weather background that is worth listening too

57 minutes ago, Newman said:

This is the warmest the 12z HRRR gets at KABE. If this is the case, you'll probably mix with sleet, not do a full change over. Under heavy rates you might flip back and forth between all snow, and a snow/sleet mix. So ratios will be more like 6:1 or 7:1 vs a pure sleet 3:1.

I said this in many of my posts the last 3 days  that it would sleet in the heavier bands. Standing well over 4 inches at the house and snowing heavily

Pixie dust light snow here in macungie

8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Heavy sleet in Blacksburg Va. Temp of 7F

VD 2007  Berks County all over again.

24 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

A few miles away from you, sitting at 13.7° and just took the dog out for one last time with no flakes yet in sight. It will be interesting tomorrow to see if Lower Macungie (for those not in this area, a growing suburban lehigh valley township pop 33k) and the state of Pennsylvania can come to an agreement on whose responsibility is to plow state roads like Brookside Road in this area. They had had a disagreement last weekend during that roughly 9 inches of snow and it was not touched for a long time. I am an essential worker so I will be out in it tomorrow afternoon. I drive an AWD vehicle so no problems on my end, just the other idiots out there!

 I agree- its the others but it will be a mess for sure

I love this analysis and I would love to see this report after each winters storm event over 6 inches. MOdel reliability would be the issue and not using wild speculating clown maps. Hope others think the same way. Lets get thoss HRRR maps up now and it appears the Euro is the model to look at.

32 minutes ago, kpantz said:

A bit NE of you, I'm thinking 10" snow before we change over, but I'm intrigued by the continued model debate over the forward progress of the warm nose/tongue/proboscis. That said, I've shoveled enough sleet in my time here to know we don't have any sort of magic shield...

I think we need to have a contest on where the sleet line actually sets up  in and around the LV.  I would like to see if Physical geography has a big play in this storm event.  South Mtn and Blue Mtn usually plays some intregral part. Overall though 1-2 inches of sleet is just going to make the snow weigh more when shoveling/plowing.  We will still have serious drifting issues in Northern areas of the Lehigh and Northampton Counties. Like you have said, I would love to see the forcing/banding be extended for a long period of time in the afternoon with thundersnow potential. .

Honestly, many snow weenies want the most snow accumalations in the forum but after a foot of snow and  inch or two of sleet after the big thumping of snow is eventually going to pack down or go through the fluffy snow and create one hell of a driving nightmare on the road surfaces since salt cannot work in these lower temps.  Everyone screams about lowering snowfall accumalations, but its the road surface conditions that will determine the nightmare of this storm event.  This storm reminds me so much of 1994 where it will be on the road for days with the extreme cold and everyone trying to drive in the ruts because  the rest of the road surface is fricking ice covered compacted snow and sleet nightmare. I had to endure that for over a week and believe me it was not fun. Every intersection in and around Hamilton Blvd  and Rt 78 was a living nightmare as making left turns in ruts was an ice skating rink.   Can you imagine now 30 years later with all of the devleopment and congestion what Brookside and Hamilton will be like now?