Albedoman

look where S Mtn range is - where the heaviest returns are

That issue with the flood warnings has been resolved over two years ago. Worked with the USGS and Mt Holly setting up criteria for issuing flood warnings for the new USGS solared powered telemetry flood guaging stations near my backyard on Spring creek and the Little lehigh Creek. The most accurate guages in the system IMHO. I have down to the .5 ft of height to the 100 and 500 yr floodplain levels

I live near Rt 100. about 2 miles from bear creek. As I said in an earlier post, Heavy Snow rates and the banding due to orographic lifting over S Mtn range with a SE fetch. Its all physical geography. Yes, it is puking snow right now 2-3 inches already. Flakes are fluffy

Comment all you want at each of the BS model issues , debbbie downers and upbeat amounts posting. Have fun. This old timer only looks at one one model right now ---the NAM and I am also someone convinced of the HRRR lately at this range. - all the rest are garbage for this type of storm event. I have seen and experienced all of the biggies from 1983, 2010, 2021 etc. At this range it is usually the NAM. While it appears a little on the high side right now at these OZ runs tonight, its going to be close depending who gets the deformation bands. These bands tend to fire up along the S Mtn range too so watch out - there will be screw zones. This map seems very plausible to me after doing this for 35+years Where is the thundersnow guys? This will be a defintley in the cards too. Sleet may cut the totals along the coast in the heavier bands

river does not divide- geography does. S Mountains will be the dumping ground with oragraphic lifting and banding

Why do guys even listen to him? MY god, it like listening to this the most annoying sound in the world

Thanks Mike - I forgot. Still used to travelers advisories in my old age. The conditions will be ripe for blizzzard conditions thats for sure anyway.

Who cares let the the kids throw the pennies into the light socket and watch them get the shock of their life. Its the experience of the shock that counts.

Thats why I said what I did as this entire event unfolds today. - with the complete model analogy you must wait until the OZ runs tonight before locking in on these insane snowfall amounts. I have been burned too many times locking in with snow weenie amounts only to watch them dwindle with some freak snow banding situation that pops up. Going negative tilt brings on these type of, especially for the coastal regions. Blizzard watches out for the Atlantic City area? Just how far can it tuck in and deep can it go. Stil too many issues on the table. Lehigh Valley, this looks like we will be watching the Delamarva area get their share now of snow with this storm

will you guys believe me now? As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminIshed capacity IN THE MESO'S----LET IT PLAY OUT FOLKS. I AGREE THAT 6-12" SEEMS PLAUSIBLE --I AM GETTING BLUE IN THE FACE FROM POSTING THIS The GFS models showed 5 days ago 30 inches- all hell broke loose on the board. Then the models lost it all and bang guess what? the NAM brings 20+ inches to the area this afternoon. I am still going with a minimum of 6-12 in but I am willingly to go higher and raise the stakes if the OZ runs show this 18+ in trend being stable. There maybe a few debbie downers later this evening if it goes down as better model dat gets ingested. I also said this storm would happen after the 22nd after the pattern changer on the 14-16th.

As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminIshed capacity IN THE MESO'S----LET IT PLAY OUT FOLKS. I AGREE THAT 6-12" SEEMS PLAUSIBLE --I AM GETTING BLUE IN THE FACE FROM POSTING THIS IN THE LAST WEEK

As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminshed capacity

we are all optimists not pessimists. Go post on his page and rave to your hearts content about how great this guy is. His forecasting is like walking with two left feet and trying tie his shoe laces with no thumbs. Hopeless

I usually, I do not say much about this guy as he always jumps on board at the last minute with hand drawn maps and makes grossly inaccurate long range forecasts. Ralph Wiggum and LV Blizzard has him beat by miles. Anything DT says now, take with a grain of salt. I been reading this guys posts, for 10+ years and I believe Ji from the MA forum more than this DT. As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminshed capacity, especially with qpf amounts, usually cut by 25% or more. This dam reliable LR prediction pattern destroyed my latest prediction on last nights storm where I thought we could get 6+ inches of snow and only got 2-3 inches here in the LV (over ten days ago.) Lets hope the MECS sticks around this time. A separate thread should not be started until Friday evenings Meso runs - anything before then will jinx it. You are warned