BTRWx's Thanks Giving

What's interesting is when I compiled weak nino winters both good and bad snow seasons had negative October anomalies for our region. Then I tried the same for moderate good snow modoki ninos and got just what you said! Moderate Modoki good snow Weak Modoki good snow Weak Modoki low snow

Nobody wants a sports only thread?

Rooting for the Rockies for more October baseball in Denver! Models start to show increasing variability into next week with the intensity and placement of the upper trough. With that being said, multiple models are trending to a more active and cooler pattern into next week that could bring snow to the lower foothills by late Monday and highs getting into the 50s for the plains.

This was mentioned as a pick of the week on weatherbrains last night. https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/

Nothing special here. https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/dc/washington/KDCA/date/2005-1

The closest sstas for mid - late September is 2004...slightly concerning

Then my next step is to see when in October the precipitable water values were high. eta: not much to see here eta eta: not many warm Septembers for weak modoki ninos. 2004-05 is the only weak modoki nino +T Sep

Hopefully Levi gets access.

Weak ninos hit in Jan much of the time.

The blocking signal from your analog package doesn't look so strong to me. Also, typo at the end... "Stay tuned as we continue to shed more light on winter 2017-2018 this fall into the winter-"

I personally believe nothing is wrong with their measurements. Urban environments can do wonders to ground temperatures.

Wait until after the deadline. lol

I also looked at September precip and this year blows away recent history. 2011's 8.84" is the only relatively recent year that comes close to September 2018's 9.73". On the flip side of things, high precip Septembers led to very low snowfall. I don't think they were nino year's though, making 2018 another anomaly.

They are DCA numbers.

I was thinking the same thing about the 3.50-5 sweet spot! My question is how on Earth did 1977-78 1976-77 have such a high anomaly!

I added more years and another column for October precipitation leading into Modoki El Ninos. October precip relative to average @ DCA may give a good estimate of how good a winter we get! Modoki El Ninos (DCA) Winter SOI Winter Snow +/- Winter Snow Winter NAO Nov Temp Dec Temp Nov NAO Dec NAO Oct Precip 1952-53 Weak 8.3" - - - - - - 0.66" - 1953-54 Weak 18" + + - + + + 3.73" + 1958-59 Weak 4.9" - - N - + - 2.35" - 1976-77 Weak 11.1" - - - - + (N) - 7.76" + 1977-78 Weak 22.7" + N (+) + N / (-) N N 5.35" + 1979-80 Weak 20.1" + - + + + + 5.54" + 1986-87 Moderate 31.1" + N - + + + 2.01" - 1991-92 Strong 6.6" - + - + + + 2.03" - 1994-95 Weak/Moderate 10.1" - + + + N + 1.19" - 2002-03 Moderate 40.4" + N - - - N 5" + 2004-05 Weak 12.5" - N + N N + 1.74" - 2009-10 Moderate 46" + - + - + - 5.71" +

DCA: 12/4 BWI: 11/4 IAD: 11/2 RIC: 12/1 Tiebreaker: 5.5"

It belongs here.

If it's less than 300, then probably the winter thread.

I think you know the answer to that.

That was meant for C.A.P.E. Sorry V-R

Wrong forum thread eta: 384 gfs does not belong in an obs thread

Any articles on this?

The sunspot numbers look promising.

I was wondering! 2007 is debatable for sure.