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Thinksnow18

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  1. Thinksnow18
    And I can verify it’s low 40’s out as I can see my exhale breath very clearly…
  2. Thinksnow18
    BW there’s one issue with tonight…the make us nowhere near keeping the area 10 miles from it warmer than GI, UB North and all the surrounding sites! There is a much larger driver affecting the KBUF temp.
  3. Thinksnow18
    I’m firmly in the belief that the night time temps are most affected by this with the exception of very hot days…last years 97 and 98 ring a bell? This could change the daily average to almost being normal instead of the positive departure we have witnessed. This may not seem it but this is important.
  4. Thinksnow18
    Ok…tonight’s the night!!! Clear skies, perfect radiation all cooling and at 10:15 it’s 55 at KBUF and 46 at UB North, a mesonet site, not an off brand thermometer. The winds are out of the NW at 3 so almost calm. IF the temps are radically different at KBUF tonight than around it’s nearby sites, then we have a clearer picture of the outside variables at work.
  5. Thinksnow18
    I think that Rochester and Buffalo temp difference is kinda large
  6. Thinksnow18
    Agreed…it’s quite the run since you know who showed up…
  7. Thinksnow18
    Don’t forget above avg in 2 weeks is anything above 67-68 degrees…so if the highs are 69-70 that’s still seasonal
  8. Thinksnow18
    I’ve been listening to the NOAA channel out of KBUF all morning in my truck…the low temperature in question was at 5:53 am at 57 degrees Monday morning. All other sites were 4 to 7 degrees colder. There is something amiss.
  9. Thinksnow18
    So let’s say that’s the case. It’s still an inaccurate reading based in outside variables. The only true way to monitor this is in a sunny day and a clear cool night. IF the theory is correct then the sensor will be surrounded by heat trapped near the concrete creating a false temperature climb. That skews the numbers in a a big way.
  10. Thinksnow18
    I’m guessing the amount of concrete surrounding the site is keeping temps up at night. The amount of heat stored would be no different than UHI in a city.
  11. Thinksnow18
    Thank you! And when he zoomed in closer and showed Williamsville, UB, Lancaster and Tonawanda they were all 7 to 8 degrees cooler!!!
  12. Thinksnow18
    A feeling that a wet start to autumn is in the way…dry first half of the year and a wet second half…and not to get BW too excited but if you look at both the 12z GFS and 12z European, both appear by the last week of September it appears there are several “clipper” type systems that get blocked off from an early Greenland block and soon over the Great Lakes…if it’s was only 2 months from now
  13. Thinksnow18
    If anyone has a way to show what WIVB showed at 7am I’d be thrilled.
  14. Thinksnow18
    Thank you all for the great detective work! If the temps are real time at all the other sites/meso net sites like UB that would be a good possibility, all that I saw was KBUF at that time was already 8 degrees warmer than all the sites within a few miles. That’s what surprised me
  15. Thinksnow18
    9am wasn’t the issue…7am was
  16. Thinksnow18
    Then was everyone else so much colder? Every site around it at 7am was 6 to 7 degrees colder.
  17. Thinksnow18
    I could go with the heat island theory IF it was snack downtown but it’s on the border of Williamsville off Youngs…I can’t believe the runway would make that much if a difference
  18. Thinksnow18
    So the temperature disparity it’s really noticeable this am…KBUF 58, Williamsville 60, Lancaster 49, Tonawanda 49 uIB north 50…you get the point….as an official reporting station that has a great influence on the temperature increase/decrease and averages based on the warming earth this is highly misleading data. This is not the first time in the last year we’ve spotted this disparity.
  19. Thinksnow18
    There’s a guy with a handle in here TugHill Matt…stay away and save yourself…he’s a black cat under a ladder playing the ouija board all while watching the shining all in one…
  20. Thinksnow18
    I think the GFS has lost its mind
  21. Thinksnow18
    First snowfall: November 13th First Freeze: October 21st Snowfall: 99” Temps: +.5 for Dec-Feb
  22. Thinksnow18
    Now if we can only get TODAYS meteorologists to read this and remember it come late November through Mid-December…
  23. Thinksnow18
    I mean it actually said it in the discussion…
  24. Thinksnow18
    What’s super interesting and something we have all pointed out on this blog before is the surprise to the meteorologists and how far north the band moved, owing to the warmer lake water bending or curving the band north, it states to subtract up to 20 degrees as the cold air doesn’t just follow the wind direction but actually bends at the tip of the lake…thus does not happen, as it states, on Ontario. I wonder if it’s due to the shallow waters?
  25. Thinksnow18
    Yeah I noticed it looks very compact vs that set up, could be interesting if it holds together
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