ams30721us

Well hello there...

Yea, I was literally just speaking with someone this evening, about how consistent the models have been with the mid-late week system, compared to all the other energy flying around before. But the midweek system, hasn't budged at all....and then tonight's run of the GEM and GFS both shifted southeast a good bit.

Looks like two systems to watch over the next 7 days. The system Friday night into Saturday looks to be pretty moisture-rich but primarily looking more liquid than frozen, although some wet snow would be possible. I would be more concerned about potential flooding, with this snow pack and potential for any freezing rain, depending on if models are warming these temps up a bit too much. It's still fairly early, but the one i'm keeping my eye on closely, is the one slated for Monday into Tuesday, which could be our next shoveling snow potentially. It sure is nice to have plenty to track and watch this year!

Just looked outside to find more big, fluffy flakes coming down right now. The storm that keeps on giving!

Wow! That is awesome! I'm still trying to process this storm, but man was that amazing! I was starting to really sweat around Noon when we had not switched over, and we adding up those rain totals, and it was as if someone switched a flip. From moderate rain to now, and within minutes everything was white! Amazing! And we want even start with the snow drifts late last night! 13.8 officially now at MLI = The biggest November snowstorm on record. The biggest since the Superbowl Feb 2015 storm. Last year, we had all of a trace up to this date! So who's excited for Winter to begin in about a month?

ALL snow the past 25 minutes here in DVN....Already white sheet on the ground!

12z GEM also back a bit farther north

DVN: IA...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for Benton-Cedar-Clinton-Iowa-Jackson-Johnson-Jones- Keokuk-Linn-Washington. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Des Moines-Henry IA-Jefferson-Lee-Louisa-Muscatine- Scott-Van Buren. IL...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for Carroll. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Henderson-Henry IL-Mercer-Rock Island-Whiteside.

Yea, I could def. see that further east. Around these, parts if I had to take a blend of the data over the past 24 hours, I would say the GEM is about how I would draw a map, in terms of the placement of the narrow swath at the moment.

00z GEM: I-80 Special

True, and just looking at modeled temps, they are going to be in that 30-32 range, so the heavy, wet snow once again, looks to be the primary texture for sure.

Also for the QCA, looks like the new Euro joins the GFS/CMC in a faster flip to snow. Looks like anytime from lunch onward now, as opposed to waiting through Sunday night. In fact, temps look to only warm into the mid 30s or so now at best before the northerly winds kick in, and begin to cool the column.

Whoa! Needless to say Sunday travel in the region is looking pretty rough at the moment. Yikes! 6"-12" snow totals along with sustained winds of at least 20-25mph and gusts 35-40mph, is going to create big problems. Also, this year the cold has already been something else, but the New Euro is indicating a pretty wide swath of sub zero lows by Tuesday morning. Talk about looking and feeling like Winter around here. Of course, I have to remind myself Winter officially arrives in about 3 weeks!

Yea, this will be a fun one to pin down for sure. The 00z GFS shifted the Upper low track farther NW, while the 00z Euro came out looking pretty identical to the FV3 GFS from last night in terms of track/placement and potential outcome.

Welp, light to moderate snow has returned to the Quad Cities this evening. After that F-Gen band stalled near the Missouri/ Iowa border earlier.

WWA have been extended again further south to the Hwy 30 corridor this evening, as things seem to continue to be shifting south. Radar lightning up nicely back towards Ames, and Des Moines this evening.

If the 12z Suite has the right idea, WWA may have to be extended farther southwest, especially between Waterloo & Cedar Rapids. The new Euro coming in also seems to target that area with the potential a little further south.

Yep, seems the 15z RAP is also trying to sniff out that convective band developing after midnight thru early Sat. morning.

Looks like this mornings hi-res runs of the RGEM & to an extent NAMs are trying to shift back a little further southwest, with more of a widespread 1-3 incher near the QCA. Still think around 1 on average, but something to watch the trends on.

FWIW the 00z RGEM also is trying to amplify/shift a bit to near the I-80 corridor on Monday. Nothing major but maybe a few flakes during the day.

Wow! You're right about that. The NAM has really consolidated/shifted north through the day. Snow possibly falling literally just southeast of the QCA now, Sunday night thru Monday. If this thing can get a tad bit stronger w/ one more shift north, flakes may be flying once again! Or, it's probably just wishful thinking this far north, but I think Michiana is def. in play now!

Yep, snow started here in DVN about an 1/2 hour ago, and already any elevated or grassy surface is completely white. Roadways initially are just wet. Look forward to a nice blanket by morning!

12Z Euro says, hold on it's gonna be CLOSE next weekend. At least something to watch. Arctic air, and precip! The last front did just plow thru the SE ridge giving the SE a storm.