RevWarReenactor

Everyone should savor Friday nights possible 1-3 inches. Enjoy it in good health and in good times.

Because that is probably it for the year.

Another below average year. But hey, at least we might crack 10 inches?

30+ inches and epic patterns LMAO!

8 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Pretty sure the cmc and euro will juice up a bit more as it gets closer in time

but the track? TBD, low confidence forecast when two bad models trend in opposite directions

then there’s always the last minute shift within 24 hours - personality of the winter a la Bob Chill

Is track THAT important? Seems like widespread coverage. Its not like the storm yesterday that turn SE NYs 12-18 inches into 1-2 inches. Such a small margin for error. 

Glad I chased today’s storm. I’d literally be bonkers right now if I hadn’t. I don’t know how you all do it. Even having to leave up here in NW New Jersey and going back to Delaware is triggering me. Especially after glancing at the model runs. We just don’t do winter anymore. 
 

53 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

3 miles west of Middletown NY already has over 8 inches and that's right on I-84. The models last night had that area less than an inch, my area 12 miles south of I84 is approaching 6.5 inches. I was modeled for 2 last night.

I think last nights overdone push to the south is the bigger fail of the models for this area.

So going from 12-18 inches to 1-2 inches in south Ny ain’t no big deal lmao!

9 minutes ago, snywx said:

Over 7" now 

You are in the razor edge of good stuff . Places like Kingston and new paltz have virtually nothing. 

46 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

@RevWarReenactorthey have 4-5” on the ground, now.

Meaning compared to the model runs as of yesterday, that cut the projected totals to “1-2”, they’ve already tripled up. 

44 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm 45 miles north of NYC in Highland Mills NY and I'm approaching 5 inches already, forget the maps look at the results.

I see that’s fair I guess. But north of I-84 is historic bust territory. So bad it should be talked about for years type bust. 

7 minutes ago, snywx said:

Radar looks great for us.. Big bust incoming up here 

Not understanding these posts. Yesterday southern Ny was supposed to get 12-18 inches in spots. Those areas are now getting 1-2 and even that might be high. 

7 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Have you decided yet? Or keep going south?

Yeah ended up in Mahwah. This is a great spot for it but still pretty underwhelming. We have a few inches. Maybe it gets better? Sure is a narrow area that is cold enough enough to stick but not so far north it’s just flurries. They really messed this one up. Lol

36 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Truthfully you probably don't want to see mostly snow down to near ACY like the RAP is showing if you want big snows NYC area. This will have a pretty narrow axis of heaviest snow I think.

People need to stop looking at these clown maps in marginal temps. Take the number it shows and divide it by 2 and then take that number and divide it by 2. No way coastal Nj is getting anywhere near those numbers. Lots of no stick and white rain. 

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

You might want to catch an Uber going south

Already doing so. Mahwah  now. Will not book hotel till this is decided 

21 hours ago, Steve25 said:

Loading up that $20 for you. We have to give it until we officially make it through the 15th, but the writing is definitely all over the wall lol

Well not so sure now maybe things are starting to turn in your favor just goes to show you how unpredictable the weather can be

Setup  shop in New Paltz Ny for the storm. Exciting! I don’t know why more people don’t chase. I was here in a few hours. It’s like nothing compared to the amount of time people spent chasing fictional pattern changes 2 weeks out.

Looking like 8-12. But anything over 6 inches will be a win. 
 

Shooting for Plattsburg NY. Will be very flexible. Sleeping in the car, even down into the teens at night, no longer bothers me.

22 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Panic is fine and great but in NYC and SNE? Where every model has them getting 6”+ right now? They seriously need to stop looking forward for a second and enjoy this week

Maybe if I looked closer at their forecast I’d realize it’s a mirage but from the outside looking in they should prep their Jebwalk materials and then take everything after that as gravy

Tbf I wouldn’t want to be in nyc looking at this map. I’d honestly rather be in Dc. 
 

im currently chasing this storm and I won’t be anywhere near nyc.

I don't know, looking at that accumulation map, its going to take a lot more than a few slight shift to bring us into anything meaningful. 1.9 for Trenton. That awesome total is 80 miles north of here, and I am a good 100 miles northeast of DC. Thats a long way to go.

I just don't see a better track helping that much? No cold air. Too far south. 

Funny thing is this is actually the thread to be in for the most accurate forecasts on future cold and snow. Far more accurate than the model thread.

Place is right like 95% of the time. 

@Steve25

Its not looking too good for you. You have 6 days left. Doesn't look like the Monday-Tuesday event is going to get it done far ya, and the following weekend storm is iffy at best.

Hopefully you can pull a rabbit out of a hat soon eh?

As for me, I am chasing my snow early next week. I am thinking the poconos is a good spot.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z EPS snow mean




6z EPS snow mean

Certainly a notable shift south. 

12 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Wait a sec. 20 mins ago—GFS sucks. It’s on its own island. Now I come back in—suddenly we’re all bowing to the almighty King GooFuS. 

Its called latest model privilege. Pretty new colors. But much caution needed. GFS has been so bad this year. Euro is still saying congrats NE. What will 12z say? Stay tuned. 

@stormtracker

There is no panic here. I am just a weary traveler/model reader looking to find a place to plant my flag for the upcoming Vstorm. I am going to get snow from this storm whether I am in Montreal Canada or in Richmond Virginia. It does not matter to me. Its excitement either way. Joy!

Damn these models are struggling. Last night I think I am taking a 300 mile drive north for this one, this morning, I might be staying home. Who the heck knows anymore.

Delayed but not denied, March 20th- April 1st will be rocking. Epic pattern! Its coming. Just be patient. 

This mornings coach turned into a pumpkin

Even NYC and NW Jersey is punting this.