StormChazer

Thank you. These temps seem to be falling a bit faster than I think was predicted. I've heard from co-workers there's already some sleet and freezing drizzle falling in Cushing and starting in Sand Springs.

Can you link me to this? I'm having trouble finding it on their page. I'm interested to see if they are saying 1-2 because they don't want to say double that just yet, or if they don't believe this because it's based off something they don't trust with certainty.

Looks like Tulsa finally bought in. "As main vort max moves into northeast Oklahoma tonight, precipitation is expected to transition to snow by late evening into the overnight hours across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be possible near the Interstate 44 corridor and in the higher terrain areas of northwest Arkansas before precip shifts east Saturday morning. Still some significant uncertainty regarding how quickly precipitation transitions to snow tonight and overall amounts. Also, depending on how quickly the heavier precipitation spreads north of the front today, there is some potential for freezing rain or freezing drizzle if temperatures can wet bulb below freezing. A winter weather advisory may be need for portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as precip type/amounts become more certain." Last night they were showing 1/4th an in of snow, now it's 1-2. Confidence in how quickly the transition takes place seems low to me. That could affect amounts as well.

It's still slowly moving towards the Canadian and NAM though.

That's the thing about these types of situations, they're either a total bust, or someone winds up with waaayy more snow than forecasters called for. I'm not jealous of the meteorologist who makes that call. I'd rather promise little amounts and get more, than call for lots and get little to none.

Well the GFS is starting to pick up on something as well. It used to have zero in the way of snowfall, but now we have a small swath of around an inch. Curious to see what the next sets have to say. I don't think they can discount it if they all start converging.

So the NAM and the Canadian seem to think that upper level low is going to kick up some measurable snow. Anyone know what the latest Euro shows? I know the GFS is saying it's a no go.

I'll have what the NAM 12K is having please.....

The NAM 3k does show some light snow as well.

I would love for the Canadian to pull this one out for us....

Yeah, I'd like to think we are in the sweet spot right now. We've seen both sides of the spectrum and we are smack dab in the middle, so here's to hoping for some snow.

Very interested to see what happens with all of this. Being so far out, it's silly to focus on any one model, but there is definitely an overall consensus that the ingredients for a winter event are in place. I moved to Tulsa 2 years ago from Dallas, hoping that I would get more wintry precip...but so far the last 2 winters have been duds. Here's to hoping!