StormChazer

Still looking good with the Euro.

Euro is starting to run, the 500 mb vorticity looks very favorable, waiting to get the actual simulated radar and totals. But good sign as of right now. 6PM Saturday. Notice the energy isn't bottled up like a bowling ball to the SW like it is on the GFS, that's your first sign this run should come in favorable for us. vs the same time on the GFS.

Canadian. Slower with the energy coming out of the SW, keeps it bottled up like the GFS but finally gives and releases, unlike the GFS. Overall, a lean toward the GFS but nowhere near as paltry with the moisture.

At this point, I don't know what the GFS is doing anymore. It has this storm producing 3 waves of precip, lasting all the way into Monday afternoon in Texas. No other models at this time are in agreeance with the GFS, so I'll continue to throw it out(also because I don't like what it's telling me haha). It keeps the energy far to the SW and bottles it up, which is why we don't get the necessary lift here in OK/MO/AR/KS. We will continue to watch! I'll post Canadian and Euro later.

The Euro Speaks. Interesting setup this run though, the storm comes in 2 distinct waves of precip. The 1st is roughly Fri night through Sat evening, then a break and a second wave overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning.

GFS bows to King Euro again. Although it's not the totals we want to see for us, it's more important that the trend was to fall more in line with the Canadian and Euro and it's no longer out to sea. Now lets hope this massages northward. Here is the 0Z Canadian as well.

GFS uncooperative, but considered an outlier for the time being, especially given how it has handled this storm so far,.

Euro members.

Goodness gracious what a run.

Typical Canadian run of it trying to layout unrealistic scenarios. BUT, it is a major improvement over last night's run. + Meanwhile the 12zGFS scales back and keeps most of the moisture to the south.

First post of the season for me since there hasn't been a season to speak of until now! With all the hype online of this upcoming potential Winter Storm, it's time to dive in and start posting model runs! 06Z Euro. Using Kuchera since this has it snowing in single digit temps on the Euro. Will post all the 12Z runs soon!

It does appear that a band is beginning to develope north of Tulsa and will sag southward.

You know, it takes a PERFECT setup for something like this to happen with high totals. One thing is off and POOF it can evaporate. Obviously, this isn't going to go the way we were hoping in Tulsa, but I'm trying to adjust my perspective and just enjoy this for what it is Models are still suggesting it picks up, so we will see. I know there is a band developing NE of OKC that would be in-line with moving over Tulsa. If we can still squeeze 3 ish inches out of this, I'll be happy.

Tulsa radar is beginning to increase in coverage.

I'm not sounding the alarms yet in Tulsa. This precip can fill in quickly on radar. Now, if it's 1PM at still not impressive, then I'll start to moan and groan.

We officially have a mix of sleet and snow in Broken Arrow.

Yeah, they are a FANTASTIC employer, but that is my one complaint. I get the idea, the gas stations stay open 24/7, 365, rain, sleet or snow, so they want corporate to be held to the same standard to support them, but like....there has to be a point you draw a line in the sand for events like this. Even if they tell me in a few hours that I can go home, by then it'll be so bad, I don't know that I want to do that. I'll be half tempted to spend the night here. I would for sure if I didn't have a wife and 2 kids back at the house...

I just drove into work(I work for QT Corporate and they don't close for ANYTHING), it was sleeting with occassional flurries mixed in up in Owasso, by the time I got into Tulsa/Broken Arrow, it was all freezing rain and the roads were deteriorating fast. I am fully prepared to spend the night at work if I have to.

We are now casting!! Some freezing drizzle this morning in Tulsa, but not a ton yet. The calm before the storm. Was kind of hoping for some earlier ice accumulations to prevent people from coming to work today. Now everyone is going to scramble in a few hours to get home as things turn bad fast. TSA upped Tulsa’s snowfall totals as well. Last I saw, calling for 7.5 inches in downtown. 9-12 at my house!

WHAT A BUST! XD

TSA's graphics updating to include higher amounts.

Latest RDPS. There is a definite trend here. The HHR, NAM & RDPS are all signialing the same solution. A southern shift of the heavy band into our area.

Both high and low res NAM