Vice-Regent

World-ending death ridge on the long range Euro in the year 2022.

7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Excessive precip and tropical systems  are definitely on the horizon. We are loosing that cool water buffer more and more. Those strong SW flow heat events actually do more to upwell cool water. It’s the constant onshore flow that allows out coastal water temps to soar. 

I would trade tropical cyclone hell for extended heat domes. Area is not like it used to be cannot handle large storm surges because of background SLR. It is my understanding that one significant TC could wipe us out if coinciding with the tides.

Winters are super warm and summers are cloudy and cold. Really bizarre situation but kind of fits the bill of what to expect. When your air-mass is constantly advecting from the ocean there is no chance of massive heat domes. That means the Northeastern US is one of the most resilient in the world towards climate change.

But we will pay the price in other areas like the precipitation and tropical cyclone department.

That is how we roll on the East Coast/Mid-Atlantic. High precipitable water content and thicc CG strikes. A monster hailer rolled through here yesterday but the core missed by a mere quarter mile.

France is getting their own version of this at the moment. The heat hits like a truck up around 50N because of the longer days during the solstice. It is unreal in many regards and makes us rethink what the future may look like.

By the numbers: Spain's meteorological agency said Friday that it was the earliest heat wave in over 40 years, while France's weather service said it was the earliest ever to hit the country.

• Biarritz, France, broke its all-time heat record on Saturday with a high of 109.2°F (42.9°C), according to meteorologist Scott Duncan. That exceeded its previous all time record by 4.14°F, which itself is unusual, since typically such long-term records are broken by smaller margins.
• On Saturday, a staggering 203 monthly high temperature records were beaten or tied in France, along with 18 records for the hottest temperature observed for any day of the year, according to extreme weather specialist Maximiliano Herrera.
• The nation's hottest temperature on Saturday was 110.1°F (43.4°C) at Pissos, in southwestern France where "red" warnings were in place for extreme heat.

On 6/9/2022 at 7:32 AM, A-L-E-K said:

hate it

It's eating my coastline bro. Getting sea level rises that are 30 years ahead of predictions because some aspects were not considered. Prior to 2000s it was not even known that sea level was lower on the windward side of ocean currents therefore creating the illusion that our coastlines are more resilient or stable than they are.

Probably another residual of the AMOC situation because the Gulf of Mexico relies on oceanic transport to reduce it's heat content and the climate of Galveston is highly correlated with sea surface temperature.

Quote

Increasing midlevel flow and deep-layer shear
   (as noted on recent VWPs from KFCX and KRAX) will continue to
   support some potential for organized storms, including the potential
   for stronger clusters and/or a few marginal supercells. 

...

16 minutes ago, H2O said:

Need updates.  Sanjohn floating?

Maybe next time chief. It's like a global warming royale.

On 5/24/2022 at 7:58 PM, LibertyBell said:

I wonder when we'll see a repeat of what happened in the 1950s....that was some decade for east coast hurricanes.

It may not ever happen again because of the extreme changes in Rosby Wave patterns in the summer. Another possibility is our Hurricane Season could lengthen to be year-around and open the door to 1938s again.

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

They are actually becoming less common.  Not only that major hurricane hits north of NC are also less common than they used to be.  Most of those go into the Gulf or Florida.  When we do get hurricanes at our latitude now they are Cat 1 or just TS.

It's actually the opposite. Hurricane intensity is decreasing in the MDR and increasing in the mid-latitudes and is in line with climate models. Eventually the MDR will shift hundreds of miles north in our lifetime.

Also some of that apparent decrease in intensity can be attributed to the slower forward motion of mid-latitude cyclones in the summer. That was where 1938 derived most of it's impacts from. In any case whatever is happening is likely to be a temporary respite from the reality ahead of us.

22 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

We are also superdue for a NE Hurricane hit

Did we not have one last year? Also as LibertyBell mentions the Northeastern strike frequency is ticking down and Mid-Atlantic/Gulf-Coast is ticking up. I imagine as a result of some changes in the Rosby Wave depth.

This could be the "year" of sweeping significant changes that determines our weather patterns for years to come.

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

but we already have projects ongoing for ocean farm projects.... seaweed farming is such a good idea.

 

I am on it I know my region has a lot of potential to become a model for many of us in North America going forward.

Grow the food on the waters and reforest the lands. Sequester the carbon safely for pennies on the dollar.

The Capital class will never agree to relinquish their stranglehold on our cities and public lands.

On 4/8/2022 at 7:19 AM, A-L-E-K said:

yeah we aren't even trying

how about that methane number

Why try when it's an exercise in futility?

20 hours ago, buckeye said:

 

I wish there was a way we could punish volcanos for their utter disregard of the enviornment.

There is no free will. Life finds a way...

The IPCC Is Finally Considering Degrowth

https://www.rokfin.com/stream/16812

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

looks like a winter nor'easter

Except.. it's not.

On 3/31/2022 at 11:16 AM, stormtracker said:

Tracking the April Blizzard.

Do tell

2 hours ago, rclab said:

 

 

Good evening Liberty, Vice-Regent. If I’m reading correctly, what your saying turns ‘Logan’s Run’ into prophecy. As always …

Not necessarily. Logan's Run is more of a dystopian narrative of what happens when civilizations become technological to the point where they infringe upon our individual sanctity/autonomy and our ability to lead meaningful lives. Luckily they usually do not persist long enough to cause such distress for the individual person(s).

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Population reduction would be better for the planet

Even if it is a disagreeable facet of civilization it is a part of life we must come to terms with our own mortality but particularly the mortality of civilization(s).

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Fusion will be ready within our lifetimes, it's like creating our own suns, why get power from 93 million miles away when you can make a small star right on our own planet!

 

Hopium if it exists at all it will be relegated to a small privileged elite but by that time you won't need it because our population will be reduced by 80%. Most of us will have returned to using biofuels such as wood stoves etc.

25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Honestly it looks even sub-meh at this point. I'm not even tracking this one anymore. It's still early in the season anyhow. We need to wait for warmer temps, higher dews. 

I look forward to a time when our window for severe wx is more consistently expanded. Upsides friends.